Archivo categoría «Asia»
Ma Ying-jeou, the incumbent president of Taiwan, has now won his hard-fought battle for reelection. What does it mean for the United States?
To state it plainly, Ma’s victory means one less headache for any U.S. administration, Democratic or Republican. China and Taiwan split amid civil war in 1949. The U.S. ended its formal treaty commitment to protect Taiwan from a Chinese attack in 1979, but it continues to be committed to the island’s security through legislation. Ma is seen as the candidate least likely to provoke China or otherwise put the U.S. in an uncomfortable position. But the final … Seguir leyendo
Tema: En el último año ha resurgido la cuestión de si el posicionamiento de Pekín ante Occidente obedece a una singularidad estratégica de China.
Resumen: Este análisis, en primer lugar, perfila el reciente posicionamiento chino en relación con el mundo occidental. En segundo lugar, presenta un panorama general de los distintos foros y diálogos internacionales en que participa China como parte de ese impulso.En tercer lugar, reflexiona sobre una probable singularidad estratégica en el ascenso chino.
Análisis: En diciembre Pekín anunció la creación de dos históricos fondos de inversiones para la UE y EEUU, respectivamente, y Pekín y Tokio anunciaron … Seguir leyendo
As Asia’s rising powers seek to sustain growth and ensure stability, energy security has moved to the forefront of Asian geopolitics. The recent visit by China’s Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar was as much about ensuring energy security for China as it was about China playing a role in maintaining political stability in the Middle East.
The visit came against the backdrop of the growing threat of United States-led oil-export sanctions against Iran and China’s need to secure alternative sources of oil and gas. But its unstated purpose was to bolster China’s … Seguir leyendo
Durante un almuerzo reciente con el embajador de Nueva Zelanda en Estados Unidos, Mike Moore, China se convirtió en el centro de la discusión. El embajador, que tuvo ocasión de supervisar la entrada de dicho país en la Organización Mundial de Comercio cuando era su director general, afirmó que el experimento había sido un éxito. La incorporación de China había ayudado a sacar a 500 millones de personas (muchas de ellas chinas) de la pobreza, aseguró.
Esta es una opinión que, hasta cierto punto, comparto; sacar a tantas personas de la pobreza no es ningún triunfo insignificante. Tampoco me gustaría … Seguir leyendo
For most of its history, Taiwan’s destiny was determined by three great powers — China, Japan and America. Now, as the 18th-largest economy in the world and a thoroughly democratized nation, Taiwan is still perceived by some in Washington as a potential bargaining chip in crafting a new relationship with China. This is a mistake.
It is true that Taiwan’s status is the only dispute today that is likely to drag America and China into war. Similarly, a democratic Taiwan worries “realist” strategic thinkers who fear the consequences if it declares independence. But since 2008, when Taiwan began to stabilize … Seguir leyendo
Hu Jintao se juega en las elecciones taiwanesas de mañana (presidenciales y legislativas) buena parte del crédito de su política hacia la isla. Es verdad que al poco de iniciar su mandato al frente del Partido Comunista de China (PCCh) en el 2002, confirmó la aprobación de la ley antisecesión (2005), que viene a proclamar la disposición de China a recurrir a la fuerza para impedir la independencia de Taiwán. Pero justamente a partir de ese año y con la puesta en marcha del diálogo directo entre el PCCh y el Kuomintang (KMT) sobre la base de la aceptación del … Seguir leyendo
In 1978, the Chinese government made a decision to change direction. Rather than continue the stagnating communist policies that mired the country in Third World poverty, it started to liberalize its economy. The gamble paid off, and today, China has the world’s second-largest economy, with a large trade surplus and near-double-digit annual growth rates.
The Chinese government just made another move that also should improve the nation’s economy – this time to streamline its higher-education system. China’s state-run universities have been churning out graduates so quickly that many can’t find good jobs, even in a booming economy.
In response, China … Seguir leyendo
The launch of trilateral strategic consultations among the United States, India, and Japan, and their decision to hold joint naval exercises this year, signals efforts to form an entente among the Asia-Pacific region’s three leading democracies. These efforts – in the world’s most economically dynamic region, where the specter of a power imbalance looms large – also have been underscored by the Obama administration’s new strategic guidance for the Pentagon. The new strategy calls for “rebalancing toward the Asia-Pacific” and support of India as a “regional economic anchor and provider of security in the broader Indian Ocean region.”
At a … Seguir leyendo
At a time when the specter of a power imbalance looms large in Asia, the just-concluded visit of Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda of Japan to India cemented a fast-growing relationship between two natural allies. The path has been opened to adding concrete strategic content to their ties, including by building close naval collaboration.
The balance of power in Asia will be determined by events principally in two regions: East Asia and the Indian Ocean. Japan and India thus have an important role to play to advance peace and stability and help safeguard vital sea lanes in the wider Indo-Pacific region, … Seguir leyendo
From the outside, China often appears to be a highly centralized monolith. Unlike Europe’s cities, which have been able to preserve a certain identity and cultural distinctiveness despite the homogenizing forces of globalization, most Chinese cities suffer from a drab uniformity.
But China is more like Europe than it seems. Indeed, when it comes to economics, China is more a thin political union composed of semiautonomous cities — some with as many inhabitants as a European country — than an all-powerful centralized government that uniformly imposes its will on the whole country.
And competition among these huge cities is an … Seguir leyendo
Kim Jong-Un can count himself lucky that his first birthday in power falls today, on a Sunday, obviating the need for a new national holiday to be created at an awkward time. But the ease with which the new “supreme leader” has taken over North Korea has little to do with luck. For one thing, the propaganda apparatus did its job well. We now know why Kim Jong-un was such a peripheral figure on the evening news until his father’s death: so that North Koreans’ first long look at the pampered young man would be at the rarest of times … Seguir leyendo
Despite some small signs of optimism about the United States economy, unemployment is still high, and the country seems stalled.
Time and again, Americans are told to look to Japan as a warning of what the country might become if the right path is not followed, although there is intense disagreement about what that path might be. Here, for instance, is how the CNN analyst David Gergen has described Japan: “It’s now a very demoralized country and it has really been set back.”
But that presentation of Japan is a myth. By many measures, the Japanese economy has done very … Seguir leyendo
Los funerales de Estado, iguales que las bodas reales, son grandes puestas en escena destinadas a conmover a las multitudes que se alinean en las calles o a las puertas de las catedrales y palacios, contenidas por las vallas de la policía, y que igualmente congregan a millones frente a los aparatos de televisión como en las grandes lides del fútbol. Los funerales del presidente Kennedy, por ejemplo. La boda y los funerales de la princesa Diana, quien tuvo la doble gracia de casarse y ser enterrada en olor de multitudes.
Pero los funerales del Líder Supremo de Corea del … Seguir leyendo
Iran’s capture of an American drone compels us to revisit some difficult, unwelcome but fundamental security issues. If Iran downed a sophisticated U.S. drone, as it claims, that would represent a monumental Iranian intelligence coup in learning how to override the drone’s command-and-control system and then guide it safely down to earth. That conclusion, if true, would force a rethinking of the U.S. intelligence campaign against Iran and, quite possibly, in Afghanistan, as it is likely Iran would share the secret with the Taliban, whom it has helped in the past.
If, however, the drone malfunctioned, as the Obama administration … Seguir leyendo
El ascenso al poder en Corea del Norte del regordete Kim Jong-un, de 29 años de edad, ha acaparado titulares en todo el mundo, pero la historia coreana más importante en torno a jóvenes y política ocurre en Corea del Sur. Allí, los votantes jóvenes están más agitados, son más activos políticamente y tienen una actitud cada vez más hostil a los viejos partidos establecidos. Este desafío demográfico al status quo de Corea del Sur sugiere un despertar “liberal” que podría cambiar completamente el panorama político del país.
La elección del activista Park Won-soon como alcalde de Seúl el otoño … Seguir leyendo