Archivo categoría «Próximo-Medio Oriente»
Gran Bretaña acabó siendo un Estado democrático tras un proceso lento que duró más de dos siglos. Francia, hasta la Revolución Francesa de 1789, era una monarquía absolutista. Y después de dicha revolución, pasaron décadas de duras revueltas hasta que Francia adoptase un régimen democrático. En el caso de Alemania, fue en el siglo XX cuando, por primera vez y por un breve periodo de tiempo, probó la democracia antes de caer en la dictadura más cruel de la historia. Sólo tras su aplastante derrota en la Segunda Guerra Mundial, Alemania empezó a interiorizar los valores democráticos. Lo mismo cabe … Seguir leyendo
Almost hidden from outsiders, the US is engaged in a new war in the Middle East which is growing in intensity and running out of American control. Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has hugely extended its reach across southern Yemen in recent months after driving government forces out of several towns. “For the first time in history al-Qaida controls territory,” an Arab diplomat in Sana’a, Yemen’s capital, told me. “A year ago they were numbered in the dozens, armed with light weapons and scattered here and there. Now they are in their thousands with tanks and heavy weapons.”
The … Seguir leyendo
Time for a quiz question. Last week, who said Binyamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak – Israel’s prime minister and defence minister – “are misleading the public on the Iran issue” and making decisions “based on messianic feelings”? Was it (a) Iran’s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad; (b) the Stop the War Coalition president, Tony Benn; or (c) the former Israeli spymaster Yuval Diskin?
It was (c). At a public meeting on Friday Diskin, former head of Shin Bet (Israel’s MI5), described Netanyahu and Barak as “not fit to hold the steering wheel of power“. He went on: “I have observed … Seguir leyendo
En Givat Ram, la colina de Ram, que se levanta en la parte occidental de la ciudad de Jerusalén, han construido la sede de varios ministerios, la Knesset, algunas secciones de la Universidad Hebrea y el Banco de Israel. En el verano de 1963, un grupo muy poco convencional de estudiantes se matriculó en un curso, también muy poco convencional preparado por el Departamento de Ciencias Políticas de la Universidad Hebrea. Dicho curso, patrocinado por el CoGS (Chief of the General Saff), tenía como objetivo principal adiestrar al Ejercito en el control de Cisjordania cuando —llegado el momento— se ocupara … Seguir leyendo
Tras muchos años de intentos internacionales fracasados para poner fin al astuto intento de fabricar armas nucleares, hoy la cuestión ya no es si Occidente puede prevenir la nuclearización del arsenal militar de Irán, sino si el régimen se desplomará antes. Lamentablemente, si no es así, la única opción para detener al Irán es la guerra y ésta es una opción sumamente mala.
Vale la pena recordar el caso del Pakistán al intentar dilucidar si las sanciones ahora impuestas a Irán le obligarán a abandonar su programa nuclear. En 1965, el ministro de Asuntos Exteriores de Pakistán Zulficar Ali Bhutto … Seguir leyendo
As an American Jew born in 1940, I’ve made or repeated many of the following arguments for over 60 years:
“Arabs never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.” “Other Arab nations should absorb the Palestinians.” “Israel withdrew from Gaza and look what happened.” “The Palestinian people don’t exist.” “Israel needs the West Bank for security.” “Critics of Israel are usually anti-Semites or self-hating Jews.” “Biblically, the eastern border of Israel should be the Jordan River.” “Blame the Arabs for not accepting the U.N. partition plan of 1947.”
Of course, the Arabs have retorts to all the above, and a … Seguir leyendo
Hay dos cosas que se destacan en Oriente Próximo desde que comenzó la Primavera Árabe: una de ellas ocurrió, la otra no. La que ocurrió fue que por primera vez en la historia moderna del mundo árabe, regímenes y gobernantes autoritarios fueron derrocados (o seriamente cuestionados) por manifestaciones populares y no, como en el pasado, por golpes militares. Pero lo que no ocurrió tal vez sea tan importante como lo que sí. Aunque de un día para el otro el poder de dictadores asociados con juntas militares se vio desafiado, la Primavera Árabe no alcanzó a las monarquías conservadoras de … Seguir leyendo
For three years, attempts at negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian leadership have failed because of a lack of trust. It now seems highly unlikely that the two sides will return to negotiations — but that does not mean the status quo must be frozen in place.
Israel doesn’t need to wait for a final-status deal with the Palestinians. What it needs is a radically new unilateral approach: It should set the conditions for a territorial compromise based on the principle of two states for two peoples, which is essential for Israel’s future as both a Jewish and a democratic … Seguir leyendo
Recently, after Afghan militants unleashed sophisticated, synchronized attacks across Afghanistan, including in the capital, Kabul, the Pentagon was quick to emphasize what hadn’t happened.
“I’m not minimizing the seriousness of this, but this was in no way akin to the Tet offensive,” said George Little, the Pentagon’s top spokesman. “We are looking at suicide bombers, RPG [rocket-propelled grenade], mortar fire, etc. This was not a large-scale offensive sweeping into Kabul or other parts of the country.”
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta weighed in similarly.
“There were,” he insisted, “no tactical gains here. These are isolated attacks that are done for symbolic … Seguir leyendo
Hamza Kashgari visited me several times before he wrote the ill-fated tweets that led to his arrest in February and then to solitary confinement in a Riyadh prison. We discussed social, political and philosophical issues, including some that are taboo in Saudi Arabia. I warned him that his thoughts, if expressed publicly, would lead religious hard-liners to call for his blood.
I find it outrageous that in the 21st century one person could threaten another with death merely for embracing ideas other than religion, God and the prophet Muhammad. But that is exactly what happened at a weekly salon that … Seguir leyendo
Une fois n’est pas coutume, de bonnes nouvelles émergent d’Asie du Sud, l’une des régions les plus troublées de la planète. De la guerre en Afghanistan à la rivalité historique entre l’Inde et le Pakistan (deux Etats nucléaires) en passant par la lutte d’influence entre l’Inde et la Chine (autre puissance nucléaire), les foyers de crise n’y manquent pas. Ils se nourrissent même mutuellement dans une spirale triangulaire alimentant une inquiétante course aux armements.
Le Pakistan aurait déjà accumulé une centaine d’armes nucléaires. L’Inde, de son côté, s’impose désormais comme le premier importateur d’armes au monde. Illustration de son obsession … Seguir leyendo
Has the endgame on the Iranian nuclear program finally arrived? Is a deal in the cards? A broad swath of the foreign-policy cognoscenti, including Newsweek’s Fareed Zakaria, the National Interest’s Paul Pillar, The Washington Post’s Walter Pincus, Esquire’s Richard Barnett and a host of others, seems to think so. They are optimistic about the current round of negotiations between Iran and the West and confident that – even if negotiations should somehow break down – Iran will not, indeed cannot, pose a real threat to the United States.
The conventional wisdom underpinning this new consensus, being played out on the … Seguir leyendo
As Iran and the West resume their diplomatic dance, questions about Iran’s internal stability loom large.
To many, it appears that Iran has achieved an autocratic stability, with the mullahs having vanquished the once-popular Green Movement. The recent parliamentary elections are acclaimed by the theocracy and curiously welcomed by many in the international community who hope that a resurrected Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, will now focus on mending ties with his global detractors.
Such a reading of Iran’s politics belies an understanding of its turbulent history. The postwar history of Iran reveals a perennial struggle between successive social … Seguir leyendo
For all the fact that it’s taking place in Abroad, what an uncomfortably British production the Bahrain Grand Prix has turned out to be. The whole thing echoes tales of forgotten outposts of the British empire, where a rogue commandant runs amok, assisted by conspiratorial officials banished there after various disgraces back in Blighty. Were the story in the hands of a novelistic genius like Joseph Conrad, our despotic rogue and his factotum might be some renegade captain from the East India Company and his amoral manager. But modern life has a way of failing to live up to … Seguir leyendo
The circus otherwise known as the presidential elections in Egypt is making an anarchist of me. There isn’t a single candidate I find either qualified or deserving to lead revolutionary Egypt, and I don’t believe the elections will be free or fair – how can they be, under a military junta that has run Egypt since 18 days of revolution forced Hosni Mubarak to step down on 11 February 2011?
Concerned with guaranteeing itself immunity from trial for crimes against the people and protecting its legendary budget from civilian oversight when it hands over power after next month’s presidential elections, … Seguir leyendo