A New Old Nuclear Arsenal
By Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a nuclear weapons analyst at the Congressional Budget Office from 1989 to 1994 (THE WASHINGTON POST, 25/12/08):
For all their agreement on matters such as Afghanistan and defense spending, President-elect Barack Obama and Defense Secretary Robert Gates are on record disagreeing over a central matter for U.S. security: the future of nuclear weapons.
The issue is whether the United States should build the “reliable replacement warhead,” a matter that has major ramifications for all U.S. nuclear policy, including whether to ratify the comprehensive treaty banning nuclear tests and whether we will…
Let Russia Stop Iran
By Oded Eran, the director of the Institute for National Security Studies, Giora Eiland, a retired major general in the Israeli Army and Emily B. Landau, senior research associates at the institute (THE NEW YORK TIMES, 21/12/08):
Nine months have passed since the United Nations Security Council approved its most recent resolution imposing sanctions on Iran. That resolution, like its two predecessors, has failed to deter Tehran, which will soon be in a position to create a working nuclear weapon. Western intelligence establishments estimate that date as not later than mid-2010.
The problem with any Security Council resolution is that Russia and…
Call me a killjoy, but £70bn seems a lot for a sports car
By Marina Hyde (THE GUARDIAN, 29/11/08):
Of late Gordon Brown reminds one of a chap whose wife has informed him that there is a massive hole in the family budget. She will watch with a raised eyebrow as he finds a temporary VAT cut down the back of the sofa, and presents it to her with an imploring look. She will sigh in exasperated sympathy as he remembers £700m worth of supertax in an old post office account. And then she will point gently at the utterly undiminished hole in the balance sheet, and say: “I don’t mean to state the bleeding…
El futuro debate sobre cuestiones nucleares en la OTAN
Por Bruno Tertrais, investigador de la Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique (REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO, 21/11/08):
Tema: Este ARI plantea que los Estados miembros de la OTAN deben reexaminar la necesidad de una presencia nuclear norteamericana en Europa.
Resumen: La presencia nuclear de EEUU en Europa –un legado de la Guerra Fría– ha sido objeto de debate recurrente en la Alianza Atlántica durante décadas. Pero hay buenas razones para creer que en los próximos años se desarrollará un nuevo debate sustancial sobre la cuestión dada la convergencia de acontecimientos que deben tener lugar entre los años 2009 y 2015. La próxima Conferencia de Revisión del…
Obama must show the way to a goal set by Russell, Einstein - and Reagan
By Timothy Garton Ash (THE GUARDIAN, 13/11/08):
As he embarks on the uphill struggle to translate dreams into realities, one strategic goal President-elect Barack Obama should embrace on his inauguration day is that of a world freed from the threat of nuclear weapons. In doing so, he can build on an impressive body of detailed, bipartisan, unofficial policy planning in the United States. He can expect an enthusiastic response from hundreds of millions of his supporters around the world who are hoping he will think and act big. He can be equally sure of crocodile smiles masking determined opposition from several countries…
How to stop an Iranian bomb
By Trita Parsi and Andreas Presbo. Trita Parsi is the author of Treacherous Alliance – The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran and the US, a silver medal recipient of the Council on Foreign Relations’ Arthur Ross Book Award. Andreas Persbo is a senior researcher at the Verification Research, Training and Information Centre (THE GUARDIAN, 31/10/08):
Ever since Iran publicised its nuclear fuel cycle plans in 2003, western experts have tried to downplay its rate of progress in nuclear engineering. The Iranian scientific community is often viewed as technologically inept. Relatively minor obstacles have been portrayed as next to insurmountable. These arguments are now…
Stopping A Nuclear Tehran
By Daniel R. Coats, a former Republican senator from Indiana and Charles S. Robb, a former Democratic senator from Virginia. Both are co-chairmen of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s national security task force on Iran (THE WASHINGTON POST, 23/10/08):
It is likely that the first and most pressing national security issue the next president will face is the growing prospect of a nuclear-weapons-capable Iran. After co-chairing a recently concluded, high-level task force on Iranian nuclear development, we have come to believe that five principles must serve as the foundation of any reasonable, bipartisan and comprehensive Iranian policy.
First, an Islamic Republic of Iran…
Las dificultades de la desnuclearización de Corea del Norte y la evolución de la aproximación estadounidense
Por Gracia Abad Quintanal, investigadora invitada, Royal Holloway, Universidad de Londres (REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO, 20/10/08):
Tema: Este ARI trata de la interrupción del desmantelamiento del reactor de Yongbyon por Corea del Norte, los desacuerdos en relación con la verificación y la evolución de la política estadounidense hacia la República Popular Democrática de Corea.
Resumen: A mediados de agosto, Corea del Norte tomó la decisión de interrumpir el desmantelamiento del reactor de Yongbyon en respuesta a la decisión estadounidense de no retirar al país asiático de la lista de Estados que promueven el terrorismo hasta que este último consintiera en un sistema de verificación…
Nuclear-free Nationalists
By Norman Dombey, professor emeritus of theoretical physics at Sussex University (THE GUARDIAN, 14/10/08):
What will be the fate of “Britain’s” nuclear deterrent if Scotland becomes independent? If the result of the Glenrothes byelection on November 6 mirrors that of Glasgow East, an answer may soon be needed. This is the biggest conundrum among a series of challenges concerning Scotland’s stance on defence if the country were to become an independent state - leaving England, Wales and Northern Ireland (EWNI) as a separate independent state.
Defence is a fundamental attribute of statehood. Yet “Britain’s” nuclear forces, which are supported by MPs and…
Irán e Israel en un nuevo Oriente Próximo
Por Shlomo Ben-Ami, ex ministro de Exteriores de Israel y vicepresidente del Centro Internacional de Toledo para la Paz. Traducción de María Luisa Rodríguez Tapia (EL PAÍS, 09/10/08):
La desesperada súplica de Israel para que el mundo impida lo que sus servicios de inteligencia denominan la “galopada hacia una bomba nuclear” de Irán no ha tenido la respuesta positiva que Israel esperaba.
Ahora que el régimen de sanciones de Naciones Unidas ha demostrado ser completamente ineficaz, y la diplomacia internacional aparentemente incapaz de impedir que los iraníes controlen la tecnología de enriquecimiento de uranio, Israel está contra las cuerdas. Lo que se suponía…
An Arms Race We’re Sure to Lose
By Gary Milhollin, the director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control and the executive editor of the Web site Iran Watch (THE NEW YORK TIMES, 29/09/08):
The coverage of the latest bombastic tour of Manhattan by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran may have obscured the fact that the International Atomic Energy Agency has released its latest report on Tehran’s nuclear program, and it contains some unpleasant news: By the time we inaugurate our next president, Iran is likely to achieve “virtual” nuclear weapon status. This means that it will be able to produce, within a few months of deciding…
¿Quién protegerá a Estados Unidos de un ataque nuclear? / On Nov. 4, Remember 9/11
Por Jeffrey Goldberg, escritor y periodista de la revista The Atlantic. Su último libro se titula Prisoners: A Story of Friendship and Terror (EL MUNDO / THE NEW YORK TIMES, 11/09/08):
El próximo presidente de Estados Unidos debe hacer una cosa, sólo una, si aspira a que su mandato sea considerado un éxito: ha de impedir que Al Qaeda o una imitación de Al Qaeda logre hacerse con el control de un arma nuclear y la haga estallar en Estados Unidos. Todo lo demás (Fannie Mae, la reforma de la atención sanitaria, la independencia energética, el déficit presupuestario de Wasilla, Alaska) es…
What’s Missing From the Iran Debate
By David Kay. He led the U.N. inspections after the Persian Gulf War that uncovered the Iraqi nuclear program. Later, he led the CIA’s Iraq Survey Group, which determined there were no Iraqi weapons of mass destruction at the time of the 2003 invasion. A longer version of this article appears in the September/October issue of the National Interest (THE WASHINGTON POST, 08/09/08):
It would be impossible and foolish to predict what lies immediately ahead for Iran. Inflation runs rampant and domestic unrest is growing, but the leadership is banding together in support of the country’s nuclear program. Threat assessment and war…
Sticks, carrots and nukes
By Patrick Clawson, the deputy director for research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (THE GUARDIAN, 14/08/08):
No sane person wants to see more nuclear weapons in the world. They cause horrible destruction. The world needs to find a way to reduce the reliance on these weapons by existing nuclear states, be it by Britain and the United States or by Israel and India. Recent columns in these pages by George Monbiot and John Pilger acknowledged this, but dangerously underplayed the gravest threat to the global effort to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons: Iran.
We equally need to press…
The lies of Hiroshima live on, props in the war crimes of the 20th century
By John Pilger (THE GUARDIAN, 06/08/08):
When I first went to Hiroshima in 1967, the shadow on the steps was still there. It was an almost perfect impression of a human being at ease: legs splayed, back bent, one hand by her side as she sat waiting for a bank to open. At a quarter past eight on the morning of August 6, 1945, she and her silhouette were burned into the granite. I stared at the shadow for an hour or more, then walked down to the river and met a man called Yukio, whose chest was still etched with the…
Negotiating with Iran is maddening, but bombing would be a catastrophe
By Max Hastings (THE GUARDIAN, 04/08/08):
The favoured season for launching wars used to come when the harvest had been gathered. This year, there is talk of an Israeli strike against Iran in November or December, when it would no longer embarrass the US election process but George Bush will still be in the White House during the presidential transition.
Last year, following a US intelligence submission which stated that Iran was not actively pursuing the creation of atomic weapons, a direct American attack on the country’s nuclear facilities became implausible - and remains so. But Jerusalem and Washington are talking seriously about…
We lie and bluster about our nukes - and then wag our fingers at Iran
By George Monbiot (THE GUARDIAN, 29/07/08):
What is the Iranian government up to? For once the imperial coalition, overstretched in Iraq and unpopular at home, is proposing jaw, not war. The UN security council’s offer was a good one: if Iran suspended its uranium enrichment programme, it would be entitled to legally guaranteed supplies of fuel for nuclear power, assistance in building a light water reactor, foreign aid, technology transfer and the beginning of the end of economic sanctions. The US seems prepared, for the first time since the revolution, to open a diplomatic office in Tehran. But in Geneva, 10 days…
Using Bombs to Stave Off War
By Benny Morris, a professor of Middle Eastern history at Ben-Gurion University and the author, most recently, of 1948: A History of the First Arab-Israeli War (THE NEW YORK TIMES, 18/07/08):
Israel will almost surely attack Iran’s nuclear sites in the next four to seven months — and the leaders in Washington and even Tehran should hope that the attack will be successful enough to cause at least a significant delay in the Iranian production schedule, if not complete destruction, of that country’s nuclear program. Because if the attack fails, the Middle East will almost certainly face a nuclear war — either…
Pay heed to Pyongyang
By Lawrence Korb, assistant secretary of defence under Reagan and a senior fellow at the Centre for American Progress and Sean Duggan, a research associate at the Centre for American Progress (THE GUARDIAN, 09/07/08):
The Bush administration is to be commended for completing a deal with North Korea that persuaded the reclusive regime to disclose details of its nuclear power and nuclear weapons capabilities. But, had George Bush been willing to negotiate six years earlier, the US and its partners would have got a better deal and the world would be more secure.
In the summer of 2002, long before Pyongyang had…
New Life for the India Nuclear Pact
By Bill Emmott, editor in chief of The Economist from 1993 to 2006 and the author of Rivals: How the Power Struggle Between China, India and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade (THE WASHINGTON POST, 07/07/08):
Less than a month ago, unnamed U.S. officials hit the front page of the Financial Times by indicating that the U.S.-India nuclear pact was “almost certainly dead.” This past weekend the corpse suddenly twitched back to life, thanks to sharp political maneuvering by India’s prime minister, Manmohan Singh, and his Congress Party. Now, the deal will almost certainly be signed by India’s government — putting the onus…
