Archivo etiqueta «Demografía»
Por Santiago Grisolía, presidente de los Premios Rey Jaime I (ABC, 02/12/11):
Hace poco, Naciones Unidas calculó que la población mundial alcanzaría los 7.000 millones, como así ha sido. Este crecimiento casi exponencial de los últimos años es la causa principal de los problemas actuales a nivel mundial.
Ya el Club de Roma, en el informe «Los límites del crecimiento» publicado en 1972, indicó que, de seguir el aumento de la población al nivel de aquella década con el consumo energético y alimentario de entonces, en cien años a partir de ese momento los recursos naturales se agotarían, lo … Seguir leyendo
Pierre Buhler, a former French diplomat, was an associate professor at Sciences Po, Paris (Project Syndicate, 02/11/11):
“Demography is destiny,” Auguste Comte is reported to have said. Today, his maxim appears to encapsulate the fate of a number of the world’s richest countries. Indeed, the United Nations Population Division’s recently released biennial World Population Prospectssheds new light on the debate – ongoing for over a decade – about the consequences of low fertility rates in many developed countries. And while the UN figures do not provide evidence that proves the grimmest forecasts of doomsayers, nor do they leave … Seguir leyendo
By David Lam, a professor of economics at the University of Michigan and president of the Population Assn. of America (LOS ANGELES TIMES, 30/10/11):
The United Nations has identified Monday as the day world population hits 7 billion. Many find the Halloween date appropriate given the frightening prospect of this demographic milestone. As if 7 billion weren’t scary enough, the U.N. projects 10 billion people by 2083, the addition of roughly three more Indias.
But the parents of the 7-billionth person should not be afraid for their child’s future. In spite of the daunting challenges facing the world, including … Seguir leyendo
By Juliette Jowit, the Observer’s environment editor (THE GUARDIAN, 30/10/11):
The birth of a baby is usually an occasion for joy. The arrival, however, of the 7 billionth person in the next few days is being awaited with growing trepidation about the devastating impact of humans on the planet. Environmentalists are arguing in circles about who or what is to blame: the total number of people; or the amount of water, food, mineral ores or clean air each demands. Professor Paul Ehrlich, whose book The Population Bomb helped ignite this debate, likens the environmental impact to the area … Seguir leyendo
By Joel E. Cohen, a mathematical biologist, the head of the Laboratory of Populations at Rockefeller University and Columbia University and the author of How Many People Can the Earth Support? (THE NEW YORK TIMES, 24/10/11):
One week from today, the United Nations estimates, the world’s population will reach seven billion. Because censuses are infrequent and incomplete, no one knows the precise date — the Census Bureau puts it somewhere next March — but there can be no doubt that humanity is approaching a milestone.
The first billion people accumulated over a leisurely interval, from the origins of … Seguir leyendo
By David Bloom, professor of Economics and Demography at the Harvard School of Public Health (Project Syndicate, 17/08/11):
The world is in the midst of the greatest demographic upheaval in human history. Although the human race took perhaps one million years to reach one billion people (around the year 1800), we have been adding successive billions every 10-20 years since 1960. The world’s population now stands at seven billion and is projected to reach 9.3 billion by 2050.
In other words, between now and 2050, the world is likely to add to its population almost as many people as … Seguir leyendo
By Mary Ellen Harte, coauthor of Cool the Earth, Save the Economy and Anne Ehrlich, a senior research scientist at Stanford University. John Harte and Paul Ehrlich contributed to this piece. All are biologists involved in the study of climate change and sustainability (LOS ANGELES TIMES, 21/07/11):
Think back on what you talked about with friends and family at your last gathering. The latest game of your favorite team? “American Idol”? An addictive hobby? The new movie blockbuster? In a serious moment, maybe job prospects, Afghanistan, the economic mess? We live in an information-drenched environment, one in which … Seguir leyendo
By Georges Minois, a historian and the author, most recently, of Weight of numbers: the historical obsession with overpopulation. This article was translated from the French by Charles Goulden (THE NEW YORK TIMES, 14/07/11):
The specter of overpopulation was raised once more in 2008 by the decline in global food stocks and rapid deterioration of the environment. The figures are frightening — 218,000 more mouths to feed each day, 80 million more each year, a global population now close to 7 billion.
But overpopulation is as much a question of culture as statistics, and has worried humanity for … Seguir leyendo
By Doug Saunders, the European bureau chief of the Canadian newspaper the Globe and Mail and the author of Arrival City: How the Largest Migration in History Is Reshaping Our World (LOS ANGELES TIMES, 19/06/11):
It is the little-noticed force behind the revolutions in the Arab world, the new protests in China and the economic booms in India, Turkey and South America: The largest population shift in human history, currently at its peak, is probably the most significant, and misunderstood, global event of our time.
In Asia, the Indian subcontinent, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, hundreds of … Seguir leyendo
By Pierre Buhler, a former French diplomat and associate professor at Sciences Po, Paris (THE NEW YORK TIMES, 26/05/11):
Slow but steady contraction in the north, vigorous and sustained expansion in Africa; seven billion of us by October this year, eight billion sometime around 2025. The latest United Nations population figures provide a dramatic glimpse of how the demographic map of the planet is being reshaped.
For the latest revision of its biennial “World Population Prospects,” the U.N. Population Division has extended its forecasts by 50 years, to 2100. Long-term forecasts must be taken with a grain of salt … Seguir leyendo
Por Juan Antonio Fernández Cordón, demógrafo y economista (EL PAÍS, 22/12/10):
La reforma consistente en aumentar la edad legal de jubilación no suscita ningún entusiasmo entre los trabajadores, principales interesados, según han manifestado repetidamente las organizaciones que los representan. Obtiene, por el contrario, un apoyo entusiasta por parte de un selecto grupo de economistas y de las patronales. Una medida controvertida, por tanto, que, salvo acuerdo entre los agentes sociales, actualmente improbable, se impondrá por decreto, porque, se dice, es necesaria.
¿Es realmente necesaria? Una medida lo es si su adopción resuelve al menos un problema, sin provocar excesivos … Seguir leyendo
Por Julio Pérez Díaz, demógrafo del CSIC. Edita el blog Apuntes de demografía (EL PAÍS, 01/11/10):
Mi maestra Anna Cabré me enseñó que la demografía es una herramienta para desvelar misterios, y la población española le da la razón. No se suele reparar en ello, porque parece un asunto técnico y estadístico, carente de las sintonías emocionales que producen las historias individuales. Pero alguna vez sus misterios aparecen en titulares, como cuando el INE difunde sus periódicas proyecciones de población. Inmediatamente las preguntas nos asaltan: ¿cómo ha cambiado tanto la esperanza de vida?, ¿por qué han bajado tanto los … Seguir leyendo
By Therese Hesketh, professor of Global Health at the UCL Institute of Global Health (THE GUARDIAN, 24/10/10):
A story has surfaced on a Chinese blog – subsequently picked up by the Toronto Sun and Al-Jazeera – about a woman from a county in Xiamen city, south-eastern China, who at eight months pregnant was dragged from her home by family planning officials, beaten up, detained for three days and then forced to undergo an abortion. This, it is claimed, was because she already had a nine-year-old daughter and was violating the rules of the one-child policy.
Whatever the truth … Seguir leyendo
By Richard Jackson, Neil Howe and Keisuke Nakashima, respectively, senior fellow, senior associate and fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (THE NEW YORK TIMES, 13/10/10):
Global aging is no longer a distant challenge looming over the horizon.
The unchecked growth in pension expenditures in some European countries is a major factor in the debt crisis that shook the euro zone this year.
In the United States, first-wave baby boomers will become eligible for full Social Security and Medicare benefits next year, initiating a two-decade cost spiral in which government benefit spending is projected to double … Seguir leyendo
Por Juan Carlos Rodríguez, investigador de Analistas Socio-Políticos (EL MUNDO, 07/07/10):
Hace unos días, el Instituto Nacional de Estadística nos informó de que el número de nacimientos había caído un 5% en el año 2009, y de que también lo había hecho su indicador coyuntural de la fecundidad, a lo que solemos referirnos como el número de hijos por mujer. En este caso, habríamos pasado de 1,46 hijos a 1,40, lo que representa una caída del 4%, casi una imagen especular del 4,4% de incremento en 2008. Este brusco descenso de la fecundidad habría acabado con la serie continua … Seguir leyendo