Keeping the process alive
By Simon Tisdall (THE GUARDIAN, 10/11/08):
Some may express reservations about George Bush’s Middle East policies over the past eight years but Tzipi Livni, Israel’s foreign minister, is not among them. Speaking during what was probably Condoleezza Rice’s farewell visit to the region as US secretary of state, Livni applauded a bilateral relationship “which has been truly strengthened under the leadership and vision of President Bush … His contribution will never be forgotten”.
Livni is absolutely correct, though not perhaps in the sense that she intended. Bush’s declaration of a “war on terror” in the wake of the 9/11 attacks fired a confrontation…
El Golfo y el futuro del mundo árabe
Por Pedro Martínez Montávez, arabista y catedrático emérito de la Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (EL MUNDO, 22/10/08):
En un artículo que publiqué en noviembre de 1990, en el que abordaba el tormentoso y ambivalente proceso de desintegración y nuevo orden que venía oprimiendo al mundo árabe oriental (maxrequí) -proceso que ha ido creciendo y enredándose progresivamente hasta ahora, y sobre el cual sólo podemos tener la certeza de que continuará y se seguirá empeorando-, insistí en un hecho que consideraba característico y fundamental: la emergencia de la región del Golfo (al Jalich) como otro protagonista nuevamente incorporado al escenario y la…
Oriente Medio después de Bush
Por Said Aburish, escritor y biógrafo de Sadam Husein. Autor de Nasser, el último árabe. Traducción: Juan Gabriel López Guix (LA VANGUARDIA, 23/09/08):
A pesar de las afirmaciones de que en Oriente Medio las cosas están tan mal que ya no pueden empeorar, existen bastantes posibilidades de que la situación empeore mucho más y que lo haga dentro de poco, quizá en cuanto el presidente Georges W. Bush abandone el cargo.
Las razones son muy sencillas. Las políticas del Gobierno de Bush serán continuadas por la siguiente administración estadounidense, puesto que republicanos y demócratas han dejado de defender políticas diferenciadas. Todos los…
A Syrian-Israeli Breakthrough?
By David Ignatius (THE WASHINGTON POST, 27/08/08):
Of all the wild cards in the Middle East deck, this one may be the most intriguing: Syrian President Bashar al-Assad appears ready for direct peace talks with Israel, if the United States will join France as a co-sponsor.
That’s the word from senior advisers to Assad, who spoke with me here this week. The same assessment comes from top French officials in Paris. A direct meeting would raise the Syrian-Israeli dialogue to a new level; so far, it has been conducted indirectly, through Turkey.
The Syrians would like to see a clear signal from the Bush…
Negotiating with Iran is maddening, but bombing would be a catastrophe
By Max Hastings (THE GUARDIAN, 04/08/08):
The favoured season for launching wars used to come when the harvest had been gathered. This year, there is talk of an Israeli strike against Iran in November or December, when it would no longer embarrass the US election process but George Bush will still be in the White House during the presidential transition.
Last year, following a US intelligence submission which stated that Iran was not actively pursuing the creation of atomic weapons, a direct American attack on the country’s nuclear facilities became implausible - and remains so. But Jerusalem and Washington are talking seriously about…
‘Bomb Bomb Iran’? Not Likely.
By David Ignatius (THE WASHINGTON POST, 03/08/08):
Analysts speculate about the danger of a U.S. or Israeli military attack on Iran before the Bush administration departs office next January. But if you read the tea leaves carefully, the evidence is actually pointing in the opposite direction.
One sign that the diplomatic track is dominant for now is that the administration plans to announce late this month that it will open an interest section in Tehran, a senior official disclosed Thursday. This will be an important symbol, as it will be the first American diplomatic mission in Iran since the U.S. Embassy there was…
As a lame duck, Olmert may be the best hope for peace
By Rachel Shabi (THE GUARDIAN, 01/08/08):
In a country of hawks and doves, it seems fitting that the bird metaphor should continue in the consensus description of the Israeli prime minister as a lame duck. Deeply unpopular for some time, pure kismet has kept Ehud Olmert hanging on to his seat, as alleged corruption charges came hot on the heels of a damning indictment of his handling of the second Lebanon war.
Jaded Israelis saw him as the latest in a long line of corrupt leaders - a well-known joke is whether a candidate has a sufficiently long police record to qualify as…
Europe’s Obama cheers ring hollow in the Middle East
By Jonathan Steele (THE GUARDIAN, 25/07/08):
What a contrast. In western Europe Obama-mania is in full flood, epitomised by raving crowds in Berlin last night as well as the polls which show the Democratic candidate to be far more popular than John McCain in almost every country. In Israel he is met with apprehension, and in the Palestinian territories there is only the faintest hope that the deadlocked conflict will ever end.
The difference is that Europeans know the American president holds the keys to war or peace. He has enormous influence in dragging European governments after him, as the disastrous Iraq adventure…
Talking Into the Sunset
By David Ignatius (THE WASHINGTON POST, 24/07/08):
It’s the season for peace talks in the Middle East, as the region watches the clock and waits for the departure of the Bush administration. Some of what’s going on is real and some of it is illusion, but to a student of diplomatic intrigue all of it is interesting. So here’s a brief guide to the Syrian and Iranian negotiating tracks:
First, the Syrians. Though they are technically in a state of war with Israel, these two bosom enemies (to borrow a phrase from journalist Barbara Slavin) have been conducting a surprisingly robust round of…
Forget the myth-making. Obama is just what the Middle East needs
By Jonathan Freedland (THE GUARDIAN, 23/07/08):
It’s lucky Barack Obama has people to carry his bags these days, because when he arrived in Israel last night he brought with him a whole lot of baggage. Most of it was packed with negative associations that owe more to urban myth than reality, but that combined to make the Democratic candidate an object of suspicion from the earliest days of his campaign, first among American Jews and then in Israel. The mix of facts, lies and hybrids of the two is now wearily familiar: Barack Hussein Obama is a Muslim; he was educated in…
Using Bombs to Stave Off War
By Benny Morris, a professor of Middle Eastern history at Ben-Gurion University and the author, most recently, of 1948: A History of the First Arab-Israeli War (THE NEW YORK TIMES, 18/07/08):
Israel will almost surely attack Iran’s nuclear sites in the next four to seven months — and the leaders in Washington and even Tehran should hope that the attack will be successful enough to cause at least a significant delay in the Iranian production schedule, if not complete destruction, of that country’s nuclear program. Because if the attack fails, the Middle East will almost certainly face a nuclear war — either…
Jitters Over Iran
By Jim Hoagland (THE WASHINGTON POST, 13/07/08):
At the strong urging of the Bush administration, Israel has pulled back from threatening to bomb Iran’s nuclear enrichment program and has joined the U.S.-led effort to give coercive diplomacy with Tehran a (time-limited) chance.
Actually, Israel is giving diplomacy three chances: It is also pursuing indirect peace talks with Syria in a smart effort to wean that Arab country from its partial alliance with Iran. And Israel recently accepted a cease-fire in Gaza, in large part to rebuild bridges with Egypt.
So you might want to consider battening down the hatches and getting the bomb shelters…
Drowning in Riches
By Kenneth M. Pollack, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Saban Center for Middle East Policy and the author of the forthcoming book A Path Out of the Desert: A Grand Strategy for America in the Middle East (THE NEW YORK TIMES, 13/07/08):
You might think that $140 per barrel oil would be good for at least one part of the world, the Middle East. It’s too soon to tell for certain, but the region may well turn out to be the part of the world that suffers the most.
As painful as the current (or coming) oil-driven recession will be for…
Iran and Israel build up their bluffing game
By Gerard Baker (THE TIMES, 11/07/08):
When governments undertake grand gestures in the full glare of public attention, the only thing you can be sure of is that they do not mean what they appear to mean. That’s a useful rule of thumb to apply to any exercise in public diplomacy but it’s especially helpful when trying to fathom the volatile politics of the Middle East.
There has been a certain choreographed quality to events in the skies over the eastern Mediterranean and the Gulf in the last month. This week Iran fired a volley of medium-range missiles into the skies over the…
Spy Games in Iran
By David Ignatius (THE WASHINGTON POST, 02/07/08):
In the new cold war between America and Iran, the United States appears to be running some limited covert operations across the Iranian border. But according to knowledgeable sources, this effort shares the defect of broader U.S. policy toward Iran — it is tentative and ill-coordinated, and it undermines diplomacy without bringing serious pressure on the regime.
“Tell us what’s your policy with Iran,” says one Arab official familiar with the covert program. “Are you going to talk to them or go to war with them?” This official describes U.S. operations this way: “There are attempts…
The west has to tackle Tehran - before Israel sends in the bombers
By Jonathan Freedland (THE GUARDIAN, 25/06/08):
Curious things are going on in the Middle East. On the one hand, Israel seems to be taking some early, tentative steps towards peace with its nearest enemies. It has just agreed a six-month ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza; it is deep into indirect peace talks with Syria, aimed at a comprehensive treaty; and earlier this month came word that Israel is keen to have direct negotiations with Lebanon.
Yet all these welcome murmurings of peace are fighting to be heard above a growing drumbeat for war - against the country Israel fears more than any of…
A Surprise From Syria And Israel?
By David Ignatius (THE WASHINGTON POST, 25/06/08):
What’s going on between Syria and Israel? Are the indirect peace negotiations through Turkish mediators that were announced last month for real? I’ve been talking with sources on all sides, and they present an upbeat view of a peace process that has taken many people (including top Bush administration officials) by surprise.
As with any secret diplomatic initiative, this one is surrounded by mysteries and riddles. So I’ll examine the Syria-Israel dialogue as a series of puzzles and offer my best guesses about what’s happening:
(1) How did these negotiations begin?
The channel opened in the fall of…
Los agentes de Oriente Medio mueven ficha en los conflictos
Por Pedro Martínez Montávez, arabista y catedrático emérito de la Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (EL MUNDO, 10/06/08):
El año 2008 está resultando particularmente doloroso para los árabes, dentro de una larga secuencia cronológica que no se distingue precisamente por sus satisfacciones, calmas y alegrías. La inevitable rememoración de aquel nefasto 1948, de la primera catástrofe (al-nakba), que significó la usurpación y la pérdida de Palestina, gravita como una pesada losa agotadora e insostenible y reactualiza permanentemente la insoportable carga de un pasado aún próximo -60 años-, a lo largo de los cuales las derrotas, las decepciones, las incomprensiones y agresiones exteriores,…
Europa, EE.UU. y Oriente Medio
Por Mariano Aguirre (LA VANGUARDIA, 10/06/08):
El inicio de negociaciones entre Siria e Israel por los altos del Golán y la designación de un nuevo presidente de consenso en Líbano son signos políticos importantes en Oriente Medio. Pero a pesar de estos hechos, la región está asolada por conflictos que plantean la necesidad de un cambio de política a Estados Unidos y a la Unión Europea. Los cambios políticos en el 2009 en los dos casos abren ciertas posibilidades.
Después de ocho años de desaciertos en Oriente Medio, la nueva presidencia de Estados Unidos tendrá una oportunidad. Existe un consenso generalizado sobre que…
Un legado calamitoso
Por Samuel Hadas, analista diplomático, y primer embajador de Israel en España y ante la Santa Sede (LA VANGUARDIA, 03/06/08):
El presidente George W. Bush deja a su sucesor un legado desastroso. Su desmirriada política en Oriente Medio, carente hoy de credibilidad, ha ubicado en los últimos siete años a la única superpotencia mundial en la especial posición de “no deseada, no temida y no respetada”, como señala un negociador de anteriores administraciones en la región, Aaron David Miller en su libro The Much Too Promised Land.
La administración de Bush ha sido proclive a ver el mundo de una manera estática…
