Rusia

Banderas de Ucrania y Estados Unidos ondeando en un edificio. Foto: kolderal / Getty Images

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Por supuesto, nunca ha dejado de estar ahí. La guerra en Ucrania es una realidad diaria desde hace años y, aunque la atención mediática y política haya disminuido en estos últimos tiempos, los combates y el sufrimiento humano siguen siendo desgraciadamente bien reales. En todo caso, la aprobación por parte del Congreso estadounidense (refrendado de inmediato por el Senado y la Casa Blanca) de un nuevo paquete de ayuda a Kyiv –junto a otros dedicados a Israel y a Taiwán– vuelve a situar a Ucrania en el centro del escenario de seguridad continental, sin que eso signifique automáticamente que el final de la guerra esté más cerca.…  Seguir leyendo »

A statue of Lenin in front of the legislative building in Transnistria, which claims independence from Moldova. Ramin Mazur/Panos Pictures, via Redux

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More and more people, including Pope Francis, are asking Ukraine to drop its defense and sit at the negotiation table with Russia. Citing the stalemate on the battlefield and Russia’s superior resources, they urge Ukraine’s leadership to consider a deal. What exactly that would involve is largely left unsaid. But it would clearly involve freezing the conflict, resigning Ukraine’s occupied territory to Russia in exchange for an end to the fighting.

My country, Moldova, knows all about that kind of bargain. A small western neighbor of Ukraine, Moldova experienced Russia’s first post-Soviet war of aggression, which ended with a cease-fire agreement in 1992.…  Seguir leyendo »

French and Ukrainian soldiers training in France, November 2023. Olivier Chassignole / Reuters

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A taboo has been broken in Europe. Only a few months ago, it would have been inconceivable for European leaders to propose sending European troops to Ukraine. But on February 26, French President Emmanuel Macron said the deployment of European forces to Ukraine could not be “ruled out”. Since then, other European officials have joined the chorus; the Finnish defense minister and Polish foreign minister have both suggested that their countries’ forces could end up in Ukraine. These comments, combined with existing support for such measures in the Baltic states, show that there is a growing bloc of countries open to direct European intervention in the war.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Les contrôles à l’exportation sont un élément essentiel du régime de sanctions contre la Russie. Ils visent à limiter l’importation de biens essentiels à la guerre et à nuire ainsi à l’industrie militaire russe. Des recherches, notamment de la Kyiv School of Economics, ainsi que des rapports des médias ont montré à plusieurs reprises que l’application de ces restrictions se heurte à de gros problèmes dans la pratique.

En 2023, la Russie a importé pour 12,5 milliards de dollars de produits considérés par l’Union européenne, les Etats-Unis et leurs partenaires comme particulièrement importants pour l’effort de guerre russe. Il s’agit notamment de microélectronique et d’équipements de communication, mais aussi de machines pour la fabrication d’armes et de munitions.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Poutine reste accroché au pouvoir, la guerre en Ukraine continue, la répression en Russie s’intensifie. Il y a de quoi désespérer, mais si on essayait plutôt d’entendre Navalny et de « ne pas céder à l’inaction » ?

Bien sûr, l’urgence est de soutenir les Ukrainiens. Mais la guerre ne s’arrêtera pas tant que Poutine sera au pouvoir. Alors, comment aider ceux qui s’opposent en Russie ? Que pouvons-nous faire, en France, de là où nous sommes, sans connaître grand-chose à la Russie ?

D’abord lire. Si nos dirigeants avaient lu Varlam Chalamov (1907-1982), sans doute auraient-ils fait dès le début de la guerre des choix diplomatiques différents, autrement fermes.…  Seguir leyendo »

A hospital volunteer from Estonia crafted this monument in Kostiantynivka to honor those who died on his watch. It is made of their photos, parts of their uniforms, tourniquets and equipment. (Anna Husarska)

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There was something surreal in discussing the possibility of a wider Middle East war while outside, in the most exposed of Ukrainian towns, the air-raid sirens were wailing, signaling a threat of a wider European war.

Last weekend in Kharkiv, as in so many other places, Iran’s attacks on Israel were the talk of the town. Standing on the city’s empty Freedom Square, my friend Olga Shpak — a volunteer with Assist Ukraine — and I were weighing what the possible scenarios mean for Ukraine. The optimistic approach went: If Israel hits Iran, perhaps there will be fewer Iranian-made Shahed drones for Russia to use against Ukraine?…  Seguir leyendo »

Ukrainian troops on a shooting range near Kyiv in April. (Sergey Dolzhenko/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

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Critics of the proposed $60 billion package of U.S. aid for Ukraine in Congress, Mar-a-Lago and beyond ask what the beleaguered country could do with the money and associated ammunition and new weaponry. Would it give Ukrainian forces the wherewithal to beat Russia? It’s a good question.

The answer is a solid maybe. Given restored U.S. support and ongoing help from Europe, Ukraine might be able to turn the tide. It wouldn’t be easy, but the possibility is great enough that, before letting Vladimir Putin notch a partial victory in this war, the world should help Ukraine try once more to take its territory back — if that’s really what Ukraine wants.…  Seguir leyendo »

Emergency workers at a destroyed building after a Russian strike, Chernihiv, Ukraine, April 2024. Valentyn Ogirenko / Reuters

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After more than two years fighting one of the world’s most powerful armies, Ukraine has enacted a new mobilization law—a move hailed by the West as an urgent reform. Signed into law on April 16, the legislation comes at a time when Ukraine faces a series of growing challenges in its defense against Russia, from shortages of Ukraine’s soldiers and ammunition to wavering Western support. In this view, the new law could make it easier for the government to replenish its forces as it prepares for a major Russian offensive this summer.

For Ukrainians, however, the law also represents something else.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Five Futures of Russia

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Vladimir Putin happened to turn 71 last October 7, the day Hamas assaulted Israel. The Russian president took the rampage as a birthday present; it shifted the context around his aggression in Ukraine. Perhaps to show his appreciation, he had his Foreign Ministry invite high-ranking Hamas representatives to Moscow in late October, highlighting an alignment of interests. Several weeks later, Putin announced his intention to stand for a fifth term in a choiceless election in March 2024 and later held his annual press conference, offering a phalanx of pliant journalists the privilege of hearing him smugly crow about Western fatigue over the war in Ukraine.…  Seguir leyendo »

La UE y Ucrania si gana Trump

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La Unión Europea debe prepararse para una victoria de Donald Trump. Con la guerra abierta en Ucrania -probablemente en el momento más crítico para la posición defensiva de este país y ante el chute de confianza que a Putin le ha brindado su reelección-, el riesgo para la seguridad y para el mantenimiento del apoyo a Kiev es alto si al mismo tiempo Europa debe afrontar una crisis dentro de la OTAN y con una eventual Administración republicana. Una crisis como la que ya se produjo con Trump a lo largo de su mandato, especialmente durante sus visitas a Europa en 2017 y 2018.…  Seguir leyendo »

Un soldado ruso en Balaclava (Crimea) en 2014. Reuters

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Hace ahora diez años, en abril de 2014, la guerra ruso-ucraniana, que había comenzado con la ocupación ilegal de Crimea por parte de Rusia, el 20 de febrero de 2014, se convirtió en un gran conflicto armado.

Muchos de los analistas y comentaristas que hoy simpatizan con Ucrania y condenan la invasión a gran escala de Rusia del 24 de febrero de 2022 siguen siendo ambivalentes sobre su prehistoria. Ya sea por la propaganda rusa, por prejuicios teóricos, por simple ingenuidad o por otras razones, numerosos observadores extranjeros siguen haciendo una marcada distinción entre los combates en Ucrania antes y después de esa fecha.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian and Ukrainian negotiators meeting via videoconference in March 2022. Photo posted to Telegram on March 14, 2022 by Vladimir Medinsky / Illustration by Foreign Affairs

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In the early hours of February 24, 2022, the Russian air force struck targets across Ukraine. At the same time, Moscow’s infantry and armor poured into the country from the north, east, and south. In the days that followed, the Russians attempted to encircle Kyiv.

These were the first days and weeks of an invasion that could well have resulted in Ukraine’s defeat and subjugation by Russia. In retrospect, it seems almost miraculous that it did not.

What happened on the battlefield is relatively well understood. What is less understood is the simultaneous intensive diplomacy involving Moscow, Kyiv, and a host of other actors, which could have resulted in a settlement just weeks after the war began.…  Seguir leyendo »

In Scranton, Pa., 155-millimeter artillery shells are being manufactured. Brendan McDermid/Reuters

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President Biden wants the world to believe that the biggest obstacle facing Ukraine is Republicans and our lack of commitment to the global community. This is wrong.

Ukraine’s challenge is not the G.O.P.; it’s math. Ukraine needs more soldiers than it can field, even with draconian conscription policies. And it needs more matériel than the United States can provide. This reality must inform any future Ukraine policy, from further congressional aid to the diplomatic course set by the president.

The Biden administration has applied increasing pressure on Republicans to pass a supplemental aid package of more than $60 billion to Ukraine.…  Seguir leyendo »

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The war between Russia and Ukraine has been catastrophic for both countries. With neither side enjoying an overwhelming advantage and their political positions completely at odds, the fighting is unlikely to end soon. One thing is clear, though: the conflict is a post-cold-war watershed that will have a profound, lasting global impact.

Four main factors will influence the course of the war. The first is the level of resistance and national unity shown by Ukrainians, which has until now been extraordinary. The second is international support for Ukraine, which, though recently falling short of the country’s expectations, remains broad.

The third factor is the nature of modern warfare, a contest that turns on a combination of industrial might and command, control, communications and intelligence systems.…  Seguir leyendo »

El canciller alemán, Olaf Scholz, durante una visita oficial a Moscú en 2022.EFE

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Las disputas más trascendentales en la política suelen ser las que tienen lugar dentro de los partidos políticos, no entre ellos. En Alemania, estas rupturas internas son muy poco frecuentes. La última tuvo lugar en 1959, cuando el Partido Socialdemócrata de Alemania (SPD, por sus siglas en alemán) rompió con el marxismo y se convirtió en uno de los partidos de centroizquierda más populares de Europa. El SPD podría estar a punto de sufrir otro cambio de este tipo, pero esta vez las fuerzas de resistencia son más formidables.

Un grupo de eminentes historiadores alemanes, todos ellos miembros del SPD, ha escrito una carta abierta para criticar la negativa del partido a distanciarse de Vladímir Putin y por no apoyar a Ucrania.…  Seguir leyendo »

Una escena de '20 días en Mariúpol'.

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Que la población civil en democracia no comprenda cómo se produce el periodismo y para qué sirve es preocupante. Pero más preocupante aún es que alguien que dice ser periodista tampoco comprenda que el oscarizado documental 20 días en Mariúpol es periodismo del bueno y no una ficción en la que pondría o quitaría esto o lo otro para que quedara más cuqui. Que les pongan o les quiten figuritas a los pesebres sobre los que escriben es a lo que se dedican estos bien pagados.

Descubrí la columnita de marras a la que aludo porque varios compañeros se mesaban los cabellos en redes, aquí y aquí.…  Seguir leyendo »

A group of military volunteers called Driving Ukraine lights flares to signal the arrival of aid at the Ukrainian border. Dom Marker

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Since Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine in 2014, a rare consensus has formed in Washington around this conviction: America must provide military support to Ukraine’s resistance. Three administrations and large majorities of both parties in Congress have consistently held that President Vladimir Putin’s aggression cannot be tolerated. When has such deep solidarity last occurred on any difficult subject?

Now members of Congress are arguing that we must turn away from spending more money to help Ukraine, choosing instead to focus on our own needs, pursuing our own interests. This is a false choice.

The choices facing America are always based on the same foundation: what best serves our nation.…  Seguir leyendo »

A Ukrainian serviceman drives an armoured personnel carrier towards the town of Chasiv Yar, in the Donetsk region, on March 30. Roman Pilipey/AFP/Getty Images

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In this appeal to Congress, more than 35 artists, activists, scholars and others call for funding for Ukraine. The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the signatories.

Together we call upon Congress to do the right thing.

Ukrainians are fighting for their existence. On territory that Russia occupies, it tortures Ukrainian citizens, kidnaps Ukrainian children and murders Ukrainian leaders. On territory Russia can reach with its weapons, it strikes civilians and rescue workers. Russian missiles, drones and bombs destroy churches and monuments to the Holocaust. Russian occupation threatens Ukraine’s Muslims, the Crimean Tatars.

Russian leaders say openly that their goal is the destruction of the Ukrainian state and the elimination of Ukrainians as a people.…  Seguir leyendo »

Everyone Wants to Seize Russia’s Money. It’s a Terrible Idea.

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The Republican House speaker, Mike Johnson, has brought a glimmer of hope to supporters of the Ukrainian war effort. He suggested to Fox News on March 31 that he would try to rally his divided party behind the so-called REPO Act. That piece of legislation would allow President Biden, working with European allies, to seize Russian currency reserves frozen in the West and use them to aid Ukraine.

Grabbing these reserves would be politically convenient. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the United States and its allies have thrown more than a quarter-trillion dollars into the war, to little ultimate effect.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Walter Duranty fue jefe de la oficina del New York Times en Moscú de 1922 a 1936. Hoy en día se le recuerda por haber encubierto en sus artículos la hambruna artificial que causó casi cuatro millones de muertos en la Ucrania Soviética. "Las condiciones son malas, pero no hay hambruna", escribió en una época en la que los periodistas internacionales apenas podían salir de Moscú.

Hoy en día, Rusia ha vuelto a llevar desolación y muerte a Ucrania. Sus crímenes, sin embargo, quedan a la vista de todos, como así reportan numerosas organizaciones internacionales. Por ende, la manera de encubrir estos crímenes ha evolucionado y se ha adaptado a los tiempos.…  Seguir leyendo »