Domingo, 21 de diciembre de 2008

El pasado domingo rubriqué mi carta con un homenaje inverso a los Tip y Coll del tardofranquismo ya que, tras haberme explayado sobre las maldades del Gobierno, incluí como posdata un compromiso a plazo fijo: «Y la próxima semana... ¡hablaremos de la prensa!». Hoy comparezco con la satisfacción del deber cumplido, pero sintiéndome obligado a dar explicaciones a quienes me han tildado de profanador engreído y presuntuoso iconoclasta.Sí, es cierto: el pasado miércoles en los salones del Ritz no sólo anuncié mi rebelión contra el determinismo tecnológico que ha fomentado durante casi medio siglo una visión compartimentada y estanca de la libertad de expresión, sino que pedí para la efigie virtual de su mentor la misma drástica jubilación otorgada a la última representación ecuestre del general Franco.…  Seguir leyendo »

El tiempo no siempre cierra las heridas de la historia, a veces las abre. Tras un largo olvido, los campos de la muerte nazis, el Gulag y el colonialismo se han convertido en un "pasado que no pasa". No es sorprendente que los espectros de la Guerra Civil y el franquismo resurjan hoy en España, 30 años después de una transición democrática voluntariamente amnésica, fundada sobre lo que dio en llamarse "pacto del olvido". El miedo a un rebrote de violencia estuvo detrás de esa represión de la memoria -ni impuesta ni total, pero real- que acompañó a la llegada de la democracia.…  Seguir leyendo »

En agosto de 2008 las tropas rusas entraron en Georgia. Los observadores no están de acuerdo en quién disparó primero, pero hubo una dimensión a la que se prestó poca atención y que tendrá enormes repercusiones para el futuro. En las semanas anteriores al estallido, piratas informáticos atacaron las páginas web del Gobierno georgiano. Así que el enfrentamiento entre Rusia y Georgia es el primer conflicto armado que ha ido acompañado de una serie de ataques informáticos importantes.

Las amenazas cibernéticas son un ejemplo del aumento de la vulnerabilidad y la pérdida de control en las sociedades modernas. Los Gobiernos se han preocupado sobre todo por los ataques contra las infraestructuras informáticas de sus propias burocracias, pero existen puntos vulnerables en la sociedad mucho más allá de los ordenadores oficiales.…  Seguir leyendo »

Hay momentos en la historia en los que el ambiente político se vuelve tan hostil que aplasta cualquier atisbo de prudencia. Eso sucedió, por ejemplo, en la Europa del periodo de entreguerras, cuando la frialdad de acero de los extremismos se alió con la onda expansiva provocada por el crash de Wall Street. La combinación de ambos factores fue devastadora. Hizo emerger un tsunami que, impulsado por la pérdida generalizada del bienestar económico, se llevó por delante la arquitectura democrática de medio continente.

En este proceso fue importante la acción preformativa impulsada por unos lenguajes y estilos totalitarios que contribuyeron a secuestrar emocionalmente la lucidez de buena parte de las sociedades europeas.…  Seguir leyendo »

Se me impone como una evidencia que todos los infortunios de España terminan siempre confluyendo en el mismo vértice: aquel que desencadena todas y cada una de las turbulencias nacionales. Da igual que se trate de problemas económicos o sociales, culturales o laborales, relativos al ocio o al negocio, detrás de todo se halla la misma zozobra, la que requiere tratamiento urgente, rápido, radical. Todo procede de la misma falla (comparable a una fosa marina propiamente española).

Lo intuyó la Institución Libre de Enseñanza. Se intentó atajar de raíz durante la Segunda República, en el apartado más brillante de ese período en otros ámbitos tan desafortunado.…  Seguir leyendo »

After our visit to Iraq this month, it is clear that what was once unthinkable there is now taking place: A stable, safe and free Iraq is emerging. Violence has fallen to the lowest level since the first months of the war. The Sunni Arabs who once formed the core of the insurgency are today among our most steadfast allies in the fight against al-Qaeda. A status-of-forces agreement between Iraq and America will take effect next month, providing for the withdrawal of U.S. troops and a commensurate increase in Iraqi self-defense. And Iraqi politics is increasingly taking on the messy but exhilarating quality of a functioning democracy.…  Seguir leyendo »

As Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkey's leading foreign policy strategist, explains the series of political choices that are ahead in the Middle East next year, he might be describing a row of dominoes. If they fall in the right direction, good things could happen. But if they start toppling the wrong way, watch out.

Davutoglu's domino theory deserves careful attention from Barack Obama's team as it thinks about Middle East strategy. The Turkish official knows his stuff. As the top adviser to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, he has managed Turkey's successful mediation between Syria and Israel as well as other delicate diplomacy in this messy part of the world.…  Seguir leyendo »

Over the next few weeks, the Opinion section will publish a series of Op-Ed articles by experts on the challenges facing Barack Obama Barack Obama when he takes office. Military reform and potential foreign policy pitfalls is the focus of today’s articles.

1) Let Russia Stop Iran. A grand bargain on missle defense.

2) A Lean War Machine. A key to a better military: spend less.

3) Financial Time Bombs. How to prepare for economic terrorism.

4) Never Again, for Real. Ending genocide would help protect America.

5) The Syrian Strategy. Can a weak dictator bring Mideast peace?

6) How To Win Islam Over. Obama's 'Muslim summit' is a bad idea.

Nine months have passed since the United Nations Security Council approved its most recent resolution imposing sanctions on Iran. That resolution, like its two predecessors, has failed to deter Tehran, which will soon be in a position to create a working nuclear weapon. Western intelligence establishments estimate that date as not later than mid-2010.

The problem with any Security Council resolution is that Russia and China, two of the five permanent members, have refused to adopt biting measures. Without tougher sanctions, there is no hope that Iran will reconsider its determination to make a bomb and finally begin to negotiate seriously with the West.…  Seguir leyendo »

Can Barack Obama afford to keep the Defense Department’s budget at the extraordinary levels of the last seven years? With the spreading recession, the answer is no. Can he make cuts without jeopardizing national security and the safety of our troops? The answer is yes — but only if we demand that contractors, the four services and lawmakers make their own interests a lower priority and build a stronger military based on joint-service cooperation and real innovation.

In 2008, the United States has spent nearly $700 billion on defense. That is more than twice as much as the next five militaries in the world combined.…  Seguir leyendo »

The economic crisis has made it painfully obvious that the United States economy has become very vulnerable to broken gears in the global financial system. But this is not simply a financial or economic problem — it is a grave national security risk, and our government must treat it as such.

Historically, Washington’s national security and financial apparatuses have operated independently. Intelligence analysts have focused on explicit threats posed by weapons and conflicts. Those parts of the government charged with ensuring economic health have a different mind-set, monitoring capital markets where they assume threats are not malicious, but competitive in nature.…  Seguir leyendo »

Some we see; others remain invisible to us. Some have names and faces; others we do not know. They are the victims of genocide and mass atrocities, their numbers too staggering to count.

This month was the 60th anniversary of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. It has been 20 years since the United States became a party to the treaty. Despite six decades of efforts to prevent and halt systematic campaigns of massacres, forced displacements and mass rapes, such atrocities persist. Why are we still lacking the necessary institutions, policies and strategies?

It is not because the public doesn’t care.…  Seguir leyendo »

Can Syria be the cornerstone of a new Middle East? Washington is abuzz with talk of a “strategic realignment” that would split Syria from Iran and upend the status quo in the Middle East. This must be a pleasing prospect to the incoming Obama administration: visionary, and in stark contrast to the Bush administration’s reflexive hostility to Syria. But is it a real possibility, or foreign policy alchemy?

On its face, the notion seems crazy. Syria has been nothing but trouble for years — funneling killers into Iraq to oppose coalition forces, assassinating its opponents in Lebanon, arming Hezbollah to attack Israel, and starting a nuclear weapons program with help from North Korea.…  Seguir leyendo »

During the presidential campaign, Barack Obama said he would convene a conference of Muslim leaders from around the world within his first year in office. Recently aides have said he may give a speech from a Muslim capital in his first 100 days. His hope, he has said, is to “make clear that we are not at war with Islam,” to describe to Muslims “what our values and our interests are” and to “insist that they need to help us to defeat the terrorist threats that are there.”

This idea of trying to reconcile Islam and the West is well intentioned, of course.…  Seguir leyendo »

Last week Gordon Brown announced a date for Britain’s withdrawal from Iraq. Most troops will be back in time for a spring general election. The prime minister posed with soldiers and expressed his sorrow over yet more fatal casualties in Afghanistan. He did not dwell on Britain’s humiliation in Basra, nor mention that this is the most inglorious withdrawal since Sir Anthony Eden ordered the boys back from Suez.

The fundamental cause of the British failure was political. Tony Blair wanted to join the United States in its toppling of Saddam Hussein because if Britain does not back America it is hard to know what our role in the world is: certainly not a seat at the top table.…  Seguir leyendo »