Domingo, 1 de diciembre de 2013

The interim nuclear agreement with Iran, touted by its proponents as a "historic deal", has been described as a "historic mistake" by Israel's prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu. How will Israel react in the months ahead? The answer is to be found in the struggle to shape the endgame deal.

The six-month deal is a mixed bag. On the positive side it stems the tide of Iranian nuclearisation by setting its clock slightly back, temporarily capping Iran's nuclear facilities, array of centrifuges and stockpile of low-enriched uranium, and improving the monitoring regime. On the other hand, Iranian enrichment has been accepted as part of the endgame; the clock in the uranium and plutonium tracks continues to tick, albeit at a slower pace; Iran's stockpile of low-enriched uranium (enough for at least five bombs) remains intact; Iranian concessions are all reversible; and International Atomic Energy Agency concerns about military dimensions have not been addressed.…  Seguir leyendo »

The riot police moved in violently to disperse the furious crowds in Kiev's Independence Square at the weekend, prompting calls for western sanctions from opposition leaders as protesters regroup in other parts of the city. Demonstrations have been going on all week in favour of a historic trade deal with the EU, after President Viktor Yanukovych backed out of the agreement. The turmoil on the streets underscores the stark choice Ukraine faces between the long-term benefits of closer ties with its European neighbours or the immediate fear of a winter without cheap Russian gas.

Students held up banners in English that read "Ukraine is part of Europe!"…  Seguir leyendo »

If the U.S. is currently ruled by stalemate -– with polarized parties crippling its Founders’ checks and balances -– Germany has too much uniformity and too little contest, which is the lifeblood of democracy.

Consider the numbers in last week’s deal creating a new “grand coalition” government. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats, who once billed themselves as conservatives, and the Social Democrats, left of center, will control almost 80 percent of the seats in the German parliament. Imagine what Democrats Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi would do with such a mega-majority in the U.S. Senate and House. It gets worse.

The Christian Democrats, the “Blacks” in German parlance, and Sigmar Gabriel’s Social Democratic Party, the “Reds,” are ideologically as similar as the quintessentially blue states of Massachusetts and California.…  Seguir leyendo »

"I started to feel like I had the flu -- aches, pains, chills, fever, swollen lymph nodes, that kind of thing -- and so I went to my doctor ... we did a viral load test, which was rare back then ... and he called me and said, you know, it came back (HIV) positive".

It was 1992. Goforth's doctor immediately sent him to the National Institutes of Health, where research was being done, but treatment options were, at the time, still few.

Patients were being treated with AZT, the first drug approved by the Food and Drug Administration in 1987 to treat HIV/AIDS in the United States -- by then known for its serious, even life-threatening side effects.…  Seguir leyendo »

A decade ago, over 1 million people in Zambia were living with HIV.

Only 143 of them were receiving treatment. The average cost of that treatment was more than $10,000 per year. Being infected with HIV in Zambia was akin to a death sentence.

When I visited Zambia in 2012, the picture had changed. Eighty percent of Zambians living with HIV now had access to treatment. I met Florence Daka, a mother of four, who received anti-retroviral treatment five years ago to prevent her from passing the virus to her baby while she was pregnant. Florence now takes medicine that allows her to work full time and care for her children.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russia’s relations with the Western countries are troubled and dangerous in the Ukraine dispute, and an important opportunity may be lost. Russian President Vladimir Putin has recently made a spectacular return to great power politics in the Middle East, at considerable expense to the United States, and now he has humiliated the European Union. The meeting a week ago Friday between Ukraine and the EU may be critical.

It follows Ukraine’s unexpected rejection, under Russian duress, of a long-negotiated pre-membership agreement with the European Union.

Ukraine’s president, Viktor Yanukovych, unexpectedly rejected the European proposals, as did his supporters in parliament, who voted against resolutions demanded by the EU, including one that would have allowed former President Yulia Tymoshenko to leave prison and go to Germany, officially for medical treatment.…  Seguir leyendo »

This fall Google announced that it would venture into territory far removed from Internet search. Through a new company, Calico, it will be “tackling” the “challenge” of aging.

The announcement, though, was vague about what exactly the challenge is and how exactly Google means to tackle it. Calico may, with the aid of Big Data, simply intensify present efforts to treat the usual chronic diseases that afflict the elderly, like cancer, heart disease and Alzheimer’s. But there is a more ambitious possibility: to “treat” the aging process itself, in an attempt to slow it.

Of course, the dream of beating back time is an old one.…  Seguir leyendo »

Prostitution is supposedly the oldest profession, which means that sex itself must be one of the oldest behaviors, a conclusion underscored by the recent discovery of two bugs fossilized as they coupled 165 million years ago. Simply being ancient doesn’t make a sex act interesting, but this one was noteworthy in part because behavior is generally so ephemeral, leaving none of the preserved remains we rely upon to tell us about how early forms of life ate, or ran, or saw the world.

The fossil also showed in breathtaking detail the positioning of the pair in flagrante delicto. While the finer points of the orientation of this particular duo may have been affected by the pressure of the sediment that caused their preservation, the finding underscores the unlikely seeming importance of sexual habits in evolution.…  Seguir leyendo »

Geopolitics is an inexact science, but the off-the-scale responses to the events of the past few months in the Middle East should send any sensible analyst rushing to double-check their data.

How is it that a putative nuclear deal with Iran can be welcomed as a “historic” opportunity in Washington and Tehran, but as a “historic mistake” in Jerusalem and “more dangerous than 9/11” in Riyadh, in the phrase of one leading Saudi Arabian commentator?

At the very least, the breadth of variance in those responses points to the immense stresses being placed on an old geopolitical framework, while inviting the question: is the world a safer place?…  Seguir leyendo »

Se dice que las familias atrapadas en los combates en Siria comen "ensaladas" hechas de hojas y pasto para paliar el hambre. Según la agencia de refugiados de las Naciones Unidas, más de dos millones de sirios huyeron a los países vecinos. En su país, muchos más enfrentan un invierno brutal sin alimentos, medicinas o refugios adecuados. Y, como si las condiciones no pudieran ser peores, el país enfrenta un brote de polio.

La respuesta internacional a la crisis de Siria ha sido poco menos que desastrosa. De hecho, Siria parece ser la representación del fracaso de las Naciones Unidas. El Consejo de Seguridad está paralizado.…  Seguir leyendo »

The surprise Nov. 23 agreement reached in Geneva with Iran does little to limit the Islamic republic’s ability to enrich uranium or limit its nuclear breakout capability. For relief from the crippling economic sanctions, Iran promises only to limit centrifuge production; to delay, not dismantle, construction of the Arak plutonium production reactor; and to suspend for six months the enrichment of uranium to 20 percent, near the concentration needed for bomb production.

In this agreement, Iran did not agree to dismantle even one of its more than 19,000 centrifuges. Further, they may keep their current stockpile of low-enriched uranium. With what Iran currently has on hand, the Institute for Science and International Security has estimated that Tehran’s ability to reach a nuclear weapon “breakout point” has shrunk to one month or less.…  Seguir leyendo »

I recently toured Portugal and Spain, where the clashes between civilizations and “little ice ages” were especially violent. The impact of climate change on the Iberian Peninsula over the centuries vividly demonstrate why we should not fear global warming. The effects of any plausible warming scenario for the coming decades will only be positive and contribute to the flourishing of civilization. They always do.

Iberia’s first towns and cities emerged during the long Bronze Age Warming that began around 3300 B.C. The Bronze Age was spurred by the discovery of the new metal, which mixed tin with copper to produce superior axes, plowshares and other edged tools.…  Seguir leyendo »

Promotion of democracy is widely known to have become one of the main instruments of U.S. foreign policy. On closer examination of this policy, certain fairly awkward questions arise, such as, does this policy serve America well? Is it really good for the countries on the receiving end?

President George W. Bush brooked no doubts that the American model of democracy is beneficial to every blessed country on planet Earth. Therefore, he confidently predicted that “color” revolutions would sweep through all the countries of the former Soviet Union and beyond.

Later, Sen. John McCain gleefully twitted Russian President Vladimir Putin that the “Arab Spring” would be coming to his neighborhood pretty soon; meaning, Russia.…  Seguir leyendo »

Si infame es lo que vemos en el escaparate, obsceno es lo que sucede en la trastienda.

La puesta anticipada en libertad de los más viles etarras, camino de los homenajes que se les dispensan en sus pueblos, como si eviscerar personas hubiera sido una forma de filantropía, produce arcadas; y la contemplación de la retahíla de sádicos violadores y asesinos de niñas que podrían haber sido nuestras hijas, que les acompañan como coartada y secuela, sulfura hasta la náusea.

Repito: ¿qué ha hecho este Gobierno para evitar que el influenciable Tribunal de Estrasburgo desencadenara esta ignominia sin precedentes sobre un Estado democrático y qué ha hecho para restringir, amortiguar o dilatar en el tiempo sus consecuencias devastadoras para la justicia y el civismo?…  Seguir leyendo »

El caso de los insultos racistas contra la ministra Taubira, la indignación que finalmente ha venido aumentando para terminar imponiéndose al estupor de los primeros días, las declaraciones de los escritores que han dedicado sus premios literarios a la ministra o de los intelectuales reunidos alrededor de cierta revista en un conocido cine de Saint-Germain-des-Près, los magacines que la han nombrado mujer del año, las grandes damas que, renovando un antiguo eslogan, han afirmado que ellas también son “simios franceses”, constituyen un caudal de inquietudes e ira en el que sería erróneo ver, como se ha dicho aquí y allá, un asunto de bobos (burgueses bohemios).…  Seguir leyendo »

Ante el nacionalismo, la historia puede ser vitamina o vacuna: vitamina cuando se construye un pasado mítico para exaltar la excelencia singular de un pueblo, vacuna cuando se examina la endeble consistencia de esas narraciones imaginarias. Aunque pensábamos que el fervor nacional se asociaba a una etapa felizmente clausurada, el proceso homogeneizador de la globalización ha hecho surgir reacciones defensivas identitarias que han craquelado territorios y gentes. En España, el auge del nacionalismo vasco estuvo contaminado por la violencia terrorista, pero la reciente pujanza del independentismo catalán se ha expresado masiva y pacíficamente reuniendo demandas culturales y económicas, aunque a la vez creando un clima de unanimidad patriótica que hace difícil el debate y arriesgada la disidencia.…  Seguir leyendo »

En un libro que acaba de aparecer, Isaac & Isaiah (The Cover Punishment of a Cold War Heretic), David Caute contrasta las vidas, ideas y destinos de Isaac Deutscher e Isaías Berlin, dos ensayistas que en los años cincuenta y sesenta alcanzaron gran prestigio y tuvieron mucha influencia política en el ámbito intelectual en Europa y América del Norte. Se parecían en muchas cosas pero sus ideas representaban dos polos irreconciliables: Deutscher el marxismo revolucionario y Berlin la democracia liberal.

Ambos eran judíos no creyentes, de la misma generación, y habían tenido que huir de sus respectivos países arrojados por el totalitarismo (el soviético en el caso de Berlin, nacido en Letonia, y el nazi en el de Deutscher, que era polaco) y ambos terminaron exiliados en Londres y naturalizados británicos.…  Seguir leyendo »

Hace algunos años, un editorial de The Economist denunciaba el abuso y la multiplicación de los aniversarios a efectos periodísticos y de comunicación, y, si no recuerdo mal, proponía que su utilización se limitara al vigesimoquinto, al quincuagésimo y, por supuesto, al primer centenario y a los sucesivos. La verdad, no veo razón para empobrecer el sistema de ayudas al articulista, sobre todo cuando este pasado mes de noviembre se ha conmemorado el 125 aniversario del nacimiento de Jean Monnet y, dada la coyuntura europea y atlántica, resulta tan oportuna la evocación de su figura.

Lo primero que hay que destacar al hablar de Jean Monnet es lo excepcional de su personalidad.…  Seguir leyendo »