The protests that have broken out across Iran in recent days have generated remarkable excitement about the possibility of revolutionary change. The demonstrations, the largest since the crushing of the 2009 Green Movement, have surprised virtually all observers. They erupted in peripheral areas rather than in Tehran, and have been dominated by working- and lower-class Iranians rather than by the urban, educated middle class that drove the 2009 demonstrations. The slogans in these protests have notably featured revolutionary rather than reformist slogans.
Seasoned observers of Iran have been stunned by the ferocity, speed and scope of these protests. It is important to recognize that much remains uncertain about them, including their real size, endurance, leadership and political aspirations.… Seguir leyendo »
Après plusieurs jours de manifestations des classes populaires et d’une partie de la classe moyenne iraniennes contre la détérioration des conditions de vie et contre la République islamique, Téhéran est face à un défi majeur pour restaurer l’ordre et, à plus long terme, assurer la survie de la révolution de 1978-1979. Ces manifestations contre le régime ont des raisons à la fois immédiates et structurelles. Les raisons immédiates, ce sont les hausses des prix – les œufs qui ont par exemple augmenté de 40 % –, la fin annoncée des subventions mensuelles versées aux plus démunis et la faillite d’établissements bancaires.… Seguir leyendo »
C’était en septembre 2016, Jean-Claude Juncker, le président de la Commission, brisait un tabou bruxellois, reconnaissant devant les eurodéputés que l’Union européenne vivait une « crise existentielle », qu’elle était en danger de mort. Vote du Brexit au Royaume-Uni, crise migratoire, percées populistes, élections à haut risque aux Pays-Bas puis en France quelques mois plus tard… L’Union avait certes échappé à la sortie de la Grèce de la zone euro, mais jusqu’à présent si résiliente, elle était menacée d’effondrement si les gouvernements continuaient à la négliger ou la dénigrer au lieu de tenter de l’améliorer au bénéfice de la majorité de leurs citoyens.… Seguir leyendo »
That’s a statement more easily written than believed, given the U.S. president’s erratic comportment on the world stage — his tweets and taunts, his cavalier disregard of international accords, his readiness to undercut his own diplomats, his odd choice of foes, and his even odder choice of friends. And yet, a more inward-looking United States and a greater international diffusion of power, increasingly militarized foreign policy, and shrinking space for multilateralism and diplomacy are features of the international order that predate the current occupant of the White House and look set to outlast him.
If you ask most Indians in what kind of society they want to live, they’ll tell you they want to live in a free and tolerant India.
Indians want to live in harmony as Hindus, Muslims, Christians, Sikhs and as members of any religion of their choosing. They don’t want to be accused of being anti-nationalist because of their diverse identities and beliefs, or of participating in fraudulent conversions when they practice and share their faith as enjoined in the constitution.
Christians want to celebrate Easter and Christmas in peace, in the same way Muslims want to celebrate Ramadan and Eid and Hindus their holy days.… Seguir leyendo »
It has been almost a year since Donald Trump took office, and Germany is still debating what, exactly, his administration means for Europe. Is Mr. Trump just a hiccup in the American political system or an indicator of a chronic disease? Will the trans-Atlantic relationship ever be the same again or is it time Germany and Europe prepared for a post-Atlantic era? But rather than providing insight into the future of the United States, the debate is turning into a Freudian analysis of Germany’s own troubles.
It started in May, when Chancellor Angela Merkel, shocked by Mr. Trump’s first visit to Europe as president, said that “the times we can fully rely on others are somewhat over” and that Europe had to become more self-reliant.… Seguir leyendo »
This is the third mass uprising in Iran in my lifetime. In July 1999, the peaceful protest of students over freedom of speech spread into a considerable uprising. In June 2009, people took to streets to demand a recount of disputed votes in the presidential election, which began the Green Movement. Those were both pushes for civil rights, demanding more flexibility and accountability from the government. They took place largely in Tehran, and attracted the middle class and the university educated. Both were peaceful and persistently nonviolent.
The current unrest looks different. So far, the middle class and the highly educated have been more witnesses than participants.… Seguir leyendo »
We are now six days into the Iran protests, and the questions that seized Washington during the 2009 pro-democracy movement have now once again come to the fore. Should the United States try to help Iran’s protesters? Can we help them?
Barack Obama’s answers to those questions were clear: No, not really. His position, the one now echoed by many Western liberals, is based on a deeply misguided premise that the current regime can be reformed or moderated. It can’t — and that premise should be abandoned if we want to do right by Iran.
When you read comments about Iran it’s helpful to mentally substitute the names of other disreputable regimes.… Seguir leyendo »
Cada vez resulta más difícil perderse. Los sistemas globales de geolocalización despliegan una vigilancia tenaz. Sin embargo, estar perdido es una condición necesaria.
Para poder estar inmerso en un lugar, tienes que deshacerte de tus pertenencias y del tiempo mismo. Solo entonces los misterios comienzan a revelarse.
En todos los viajes hay un punto más lejano: tiene que ver con un sentimiento, con una inflexión más que con un lugar. V.S. Naipaul escribió sobre el “enigma de la llegada”. Eso se le acerca.
Una mañana temprano, aquí en la capital del turbulento estado de Rakáin, en Birmania, fui a caminar por la orilla del mar.… Seguir leyendo »
n a matter of days, protests in Iran have quickly spread across the country, taking the government by surprise and leaving analysts and pundits alike confused. Part of the reason many have been caught off guard is because these protests appear quite different from their 2009 predecessor -- in terms of size, leadership and objective.
But another reason is that the drivers of these protests are from a segment of the population that has rarely figured into Iran's political developments in the past two decades -- those who never believed or have lost hope in the idea of real change through reform.… Seguir leyendo »
Entre ruidos, luces, y un ir y venir a no sé dónde, cada noche, cuando echo las persianas de mi pensamiento, logro visualizar a aquel niño que fui y que me recuerda, inexorablemente, la importancia de que la sonrisa no se desinstale de mi cara, y menos si es para vestir un traje que no es de mi talla. Algo en mí se empeña, cada noche, abrazado a mi almohada, en no cambiar un ramo de sonrisas por un manojo de preocupaciones.
Desde que tengo uso de razón, siempre recuerdo haber abrazado el humor como si fuera la tabla de salvación de todos mis problemas y como la guinda que remataba todas las tartas de mis pensamientos.… Seguir leyendo »
Imaginemos la siguiente hipótesis, estrictamente freudiana y, por tanto, altamente verosímil, en la medida en que Freud fue, por encima de todo, un gran psicólogo clínico que, con la experiencia analítica de sus pacientes, intentó desentrañar las claves del psiquismo humano trastornado, el que conduce a conductas disparatadas y muchas veces causantes de mucho sufrimiento, no solo para esos mismos pacientes sino también para las personas que conviven con ellos.
La hipótesis es la siguiente (y podría explicarse bajo el paraguas teórico de la proyección): los líderes del independentismo catalán han proyectado sobre España lo que ellos cobijan dentro de sí, aunque sin darse cuenta.… Seguir leyendo »
A David Reimer, un bebé canadiense, le intervino de fimosis a los ocho meses un médico incompetente que le destrozó el pene. Las desgracias de David no acabaron aquí. Sus preocupados padres se pusieron en manos de William Money (1921-2006), un psicólogo del hospital John Hopkins de Baltimore, famoso por disociar sexo de género y sostener que el género es más aprendido que heredado. Entonces Money se creyó que era Dios, olvidó que era psicólogo, no cirujano, ni biólogo y recomendó cirugía de reasignación de sexo, una orquiectomía, que David sufrió sin saberlo a los 22 meses. El caso sería celebrado durante años como la epifanía de la teoría de la neutralidad del género, un hallazgo semántico de Money.… Seguir leyendo »
Los deseos de que con el año nuevo las cosas vayan a cambiar es un rito y no tanto una determinación de la que se siguen las consecuencias deseadas. Responden más a la resignación que a la esperanza y nos recuerdan dos hechos inexorables de la existencia humana: lo difícil que es cambiar y lo inexorable que es el cambio que acontece sin nuestra intención o permiso. Apenas podemos cambiar casi nada mientras casi todo cambia. Probablemente todo esto se deba a que interpretamos la agitación como el origen de los mayores cambios y no tenemos ningún órgano que, en periodos de calma, nos haga percibir las modificaciones latentes o de fondo.… Seguir leyendo »
North Korea was considered too poor, authoritarian and vulnerable to succeed with its nuclear and missile programs. And yet Pyongyang has acquired advanced nuclear weapons capabilities — and, at the end of November, tested an intercontinental ballistic missile.
Why has North Korea succeeded when other countries such as Iraq and Libya have failed?
Three factors are central to North Korea’s success. This analysis draws on findings about the North Korean program from a recent New York Times article, as well as my recent book on the Iraqi and Libyan nuclear programs.
1. Kim Jong Un made nuclear weapons his top priority.… Seguir leyendo »
Lost in all the talk of the much-ballyhooed Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 was any mention of policy regarding improving conditions in the struggling territory of Puerto Rico.
With a crumbling infrastructure that had a 300,000-customer power outage before landfall of any major hurricane this past September, Puerto Rico was losing the economic war to import industry and manufacturing into the picturesque island. It wasn’t a policy failure, as Act No. 20 of 2012, known as the “Export Services Act” provided Puerto Rico an incredibly favorable tax haven for would-be expatriates.
This act had the potential to attract global businesses as it offered a 4 percent corporate tax and 100 percent tax exemption on distributions from earnings and profits, a 90 percent tax exemption from personal property and taxes and a 90 percent tax exemption from property taxes for certain types of businesses.… Seguir leyendo »
Iraqi children have been the victims of the country’s dire political situation even before the start of the war led by the United States. The negative effects on children started with the harsh United Nations sanctions against the regime of Saddam Hussein and were considerably aggravated by the war, whose consequences are still felt.
Even now, hardly a week passes in Iraq without violence leaving both children and adults with permanent physical and mental scars. Experts such as Dr. Haithi al-Sady from the Psychological Research Center at Baghdad University have warned of the high number of children suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).… Seguir leyendo »
Here’s a new year fantasy: Imagine that, in response to President Donald Trump’s announcement that the U.S. will recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, Palestinians had renounced violence and embarked on a sustained campaign of Gandhian protest.
Imagine that instead of reading from the same familiar script, Palestinian leaders had called for sit-ins, silent marches and civil disobedience rather than “days of rage.” Imagine peaceful Palestinian demonstrations aimed more at drawing world attention to the justice of their cause than at producing martyrs or provoking anger at Israel.
It’s hard to imagine, that’s true. The Palestinian Authority has historically thought it would take violence to create a sovereign Palestinian state, and in any case it lacks the ability to bind other groups.… Seguir leyendo »
El periodo Cuaternario comprende dos subdivisiones: el Pleistoceno, que se inicia hace 2,59 millones de años, y el Holoceno que sucede al anterior hace aproximadamente 12.000 años y se prolonga hasta nuestros días. El Pleistoceno fue una época caracterizada por una sucesión de grandes glaciaciones (con una duración de 70.000-90.000 años) separadas por intervalos interglaciares más cortos (10.000 a 30.000 años), estos últimos con unas condiciones climáticas similares a las actuales.
Al comienzo del Holoceno, la Tierra dejó atrás su última glaciación y, a medida que las vastas lenguas de hielo que cubrían gran parte del hemisferio norte retrocedían, los humanos supieron sacar provecho de las nuevas y más benignas circunstancias ambientales para sentar las bases de nuestra civilización y su posterior desarrollo, con el consiguiente impacto sobre el planeta.… Seguir leyendo »
Parece que fue ayer cuando celebrábamos entusiasmados la llegada del nuevo siglo, y han pasado ya diecisiete años sin cumplirse ninguno de los pronósticos. Con la caída del Muro berlinés y el anuncio de que «la historia se había acabado» (Fukuyama), al haberse impuesto la democracia como sistema político y el mercado como norma económica, nos prometíamos una paz eterna y un progreso ininterrumpido mundo adelante. De tal sueño nos despertó, el 11 de septiembre de 2001, el desplome de las Torres Gemelas neoyorquinas, corazón de Occidente, advirtiéndonos de que había un mundo al margen del nuestro que pedía entrada y exigía sitio.… Seguir leyendo »
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