Martes, 1 de marzo de 2022 (Continuación)

Ucrania, Rusia, Conflicto armado, Conflicto territorial,

Over the weekend, following a request from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu announced that Ankara would implement the Montreux Convention. The decision made headlines around the world — but what does this mean, exactly?

The most important implications of Turkey’s decision have more to do with Turkey’s own diplomatic strategy rather than any particular effect in shifting the tide of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The military impact is probably limited

This 1936 international agreement allows Turkey, during times of war, to regulate transit of warships through the Turkish Straits, the heavily traveled waterway connecting the Black Sea and the Aegean.…  Seguir leyendo »

Smoke rises from a Russian tank destroyed Saturday by Ukrainian forces in the Luhansk region. (Anatolii Stepanov/AFP/ Getty Images)

As the most recent Russian invasion of Ukraine enters its second week, some observers are starting to suggest that the Russian army’s slow progress and supply problems are evidence that the invasion is in trouble.

Russia may be facing logistical problems. But my research on the logistics of military operations suggests that this early in a campaign, such difficulties can be overcome.

Supply problems are the norm, not the exception

Even successful offensives usually have moments of high drama caused by supply shortages.

Indeed, success on the battlefield often causes supply shortages. As a force advances, its supply lines get longer, requiring more resupply vehicles in order to maintain the same rate of replenishment.…  Seguir leyendo »

The European Union has long been criticized as ineffective on foreign policy. But Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has created a crisis of epic proportions. Will it prompt the E.U. to finally come together as a real geopolitical power?

While it is still early, the E.U. is showing signs of new political resolve and unity in response to Putin’s aggression. The organization is implementing hard-hitting sanctions and offering military assistance to Ukraine, surprising those who have dismissed it as an irredeemable geopolitical weakling.

Our own research on political development suggests this moment has the potential to create a turning point in the E.U.’s…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian missile launchers move during the Victory Day military parade marking 71 years of the victory in World War II in Red Square in Moscow in 2016. (Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP)

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Sunday that he had ordered the country’s nuclear forces to “high combat alert”. Here’s what you need to know.

What does Putin’s command mean in practice?

Experts are unsure as to the practical implications of Putin’s order, because the literal Russian translation of the president’s command — “special regime of combat duty” — does not conform to any of Russia’s known alert levels.

The United States and its allies have not observed any major changes in the deployment of Russia’s nuclear forces. The meaning of Putin’s order is “not completely clear yet”, a U.S. defense official told journalists.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russia's Ambassador to the United Nations Vasily Nebenzya looks at papers during the United Nations Security Council meeting at the UN Headquarters in New York City on February 27, 2022. Andrea Renault / AFP

The United Nations General Assembly will hold an Emergency Special Session on the war in Ukraine this week, beginning today. This is potentially a key moment for all members of the UN to condemn Russia’s aggression, call for an immediate cessation of hostilities and reaffirm Ukraine’s territorial integrity. The General Assembly must send a clear message in support of Ukraine, and African, Asian and Latin American members in particular should make their voices heard.

This week’s General Assembly session follows Russia’s predictable decision to block a Security Council resolution deploring its actions last Friday. On Sunday 27 February, the Council passed a procedural resolution – with eleven votes in favour, three abstentions and Russia’s no-vote (Russia could not veto the text under UN rules) – requesting the General Assembly to meet in line with the long-established but rarely used “Uniting for Peace” formula.…  Seguir leyendo »

Olena Zhuk with her daughter, Anna, and Ira Slyvkanych with her daughter, Milena, all from Lviv, Ukraine, after crossing the border into Poland, on Saturday. Maciek Nabrdalik for The New York Times

With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the military balance of power in Europe is up for grabs. The moral balance is also at stake. The West needs to show that it can live up to its values — as well as defend itself.

Vladimir Putin’s willingness to challenge international norms means Ukraine’s 44 million citizens are living in fear for their lives and their futures. All possible outcomes involve sacrifice and suffering on a huge scale.

More than 500,000 people already have fled across Ukraine’s borders; at least 160,000 more have been internally displaced by the fighting. The United States has predicted there could be as many as five million refugees — joining what is already a record 31 million refugees and asylum seekers around the world.…  Seguir leyendo »

First things first: Despite Russia's aggression in Ukraine, and despite Russian posturing about nuclear weapons, it seems wildly unlikely that the current conflict will descend into a nuclear crisis. But that reality doesn't change the fact that this invasion, and Russian swagger about its nuclear capabilities, ratchets up tensions in an already-deadly situation -- and brings a renewed (if still slim) threat of nuclear war to a generation that has never experienced this particular (apocalyptic) fear.

"I would now like to say something very important for those who may be tempted to interfere in these developments from the outside", Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an address last week about his country's invasion of Ukraine.…  Seguir leyendo »

This terrifying, world-changing conflict in Ukraine did not start in 2022. Nor did it start in 2014. It began a decade and a half ago when Russia invaded Georgia and got away with it.

"Remember the red button?" a friend texted when the first Russian bombs fell on Kyiv. In the region that has been colonized and tormented by Russia for centuries, everyone remembers the red "reset" button: the gift of an illusory fresh start that Hillary Clinton presented to the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during their meeting in Geneva 2009.

By then, the invasion of Georgia's capital Tbilisi had been averted, but with 20% of its territory occupied by Russia, the country's sovereignty was dangerously crippled.…  Seguir leyendo »

A man plays Chinese chess with his grandson at a park in Beijing, China. Photo by Kevin Frayer/Getty Images.

President Vladimir Putin’s full military escalation in Ukraine has unsettled his seemingly best friend in international affairs, the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, who has invested in the bilateral relationship personally and politically.

Beijing’s axis with Moscow was recently strengthened during the 2022 Winter Olympics, with their joint declaration to proclaim ‘their cooperation with no limit’.

The Western foreign affairs community then rushed to conclude that Moscow and Beijing were forming – if one had not already been formed – a ‘strategic alliance’ aimed at destabilising the liberal, rules-based world order. Some in the West assume Beijing will inevitably support Russia’s military actions in Ukraine.…  Seguir leyendo »

Una mujer grababa fragmentos de un avión derribado en Kiev el viernes. Lynsey Addario para The New York Times

Las ocho palabras más peligrosas del periodismo son: “El mundo nunca volverá a ser el mismo”. En más de cuatro décadas como periodista, rara vez me he atrevido a usar esa frase. Pero ahora, tras la invasión de Vladimir Putin a Ucrania, la utilizaré.

Nuestro mundo nunca volverá a ser el mismo porque esta guerra no tiene ningún paralelo histórico. Es una descarnada toma territorial, estilo siglo XVIII, por parte de una superpotencia, pero en un mundo globalizado del siglo XXI. Esta es la primera guerra que será cubierta en TikTok por personas increíblemente empoderadas, armadas solo con teléfonos inteligentes, por lo que los actos de brutalidad se documentarán y transmitirán por todo el mundo sin editores ni filtros.…  Seguir leyendo »