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Oleksiy Lysianyi, CEO of wooden models company Ugears, with new products in Gorenka, Ukraine after the company resumed full production following Russian bomb damage to the factory. Photo by SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP via Getty Images

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Despite the inevitable loss and damage inflicted on Ukraine’s economy by Russia’s war, there is some optimism from Ukrainian companies about their own commercial future and the country’s economy overall.

In those Ukrainian territories less affected by hostilities and occupation, companies began recovering their operations just a few weeks after the Russian invasion began and have continued despite ongoing attacks on Ukraine’s power grid causing massive disruptions to power supply.

Throughout the country, its corporate climate has been recovering in recent months, thanks in no small part to the military victories of the Ukrainian army and its upgraded ability to defend both its territory and people from shelling.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor during his recent visit to the African continent. Ihsaan Haffejee/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

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Russia seems to be outmaneuvering the United States in Africa. In recent days, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov underscored that stark reality as he wined and dined his way through a tour of four African capitals.

As much as President Joe Biden would like African countries to join the Western alliance in isolating Russia over its brutality in Ukraine, Russia is making a show of bolstering ties with some powerful players on the continent.

Instead of being treated like a global pariah as the US wants, leaders in South Africa, Eritrea, Angola and Eswatini (formerly Swaziland) treated Lavrov like a cherished friend during his visit.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Decisive Test for Germany Is Still to Come

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After months of indecision, hand-wringing and uncertainty, Germany last week committed to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. The delay was a measure of the decision’s significance. For a country long wary of active military involvement in conflicts, the release of its most advanced war machine for battle with Russian troops is momentous. A taboo has been shed.

The decision has revealed something of an enigma. Who is the man leading Germany during the fiercest conflict in Europe since World War II: a strategic genius or a fainthearted dawdler? Over a year into his tenure, Chancellor Olaf Scholz remains hard to decipher.…  Seguir leyendo »

Inmigrantes ucranianos cruzan la frontera y reciben donaciones de voluntarios. Foto: Halfpoint.

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Tema

¿Cuáles podrían ser las lecciones políticas, estratégicas e históricas de la guerra en Ucrania?

Resumen

La guerra en Ucrania pudo evitarse. El conflicto es la consecuencia de diferentes fracasos y expectativas no cumplidas y del fallo en el uso de los sistemas de gestión de crisis. No se pudo impedir un conflicto militar, que se debió, entre otros factores, a la ruptura del diálogo estratégico entre Rusia y EEUU.

La lección más importante de este conflicto, que se prevé largo, es que, si Rusia ganara y consiguiera cambiar las fronteras por la fuerza, nos obligaría a definir otros principios básicos de un nuevo orden internacional que sería más cómodo para las autocracias y para los enemigos de la democracia liberal.…  Seguir leyendo »

A power plant damaged by a Russian missile strike in Kharkiv, Ukraine, September 2022. Vitalii Hnidyi / Reuters

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After 11 months of war and nearly four months of relentless Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector, the country’s electric grid comes nearer to collapse each day. In addition to its brutal barrages on residential areas, Russia has targeted power plants, substations, and other critical infrastructure that electrifies the country. Ukrainians are now habituated to rolling blackouts, but the electricity supply falls far short of what the country needs, inducing severe economic disruption. Further strikes could cause the total failure of Ukraine’s electric grid, plunging tens of millions of people into darkness.

Deaths from a grid collapse could be far greater than the casualties caused by a Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons.…  Seguir leyendo »

Más allá de las ideologías: cómo hablar de Ucrania en América Latina

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La historia, dice Paul Valéry en alguna parte, es la ciencia de las cosas que no se repiten. Yo creo saber lo que quiere decir, pero al mismo tiempo me parece claro que, si bien la historia no repite sus cosas exactamente, con los mismos actores y los mismos escenarios, tiene una tendencia innegable a plagiarse a sí misma: cambiando detalles, eso sí, para que el plagio no se note demasiado.

En eso pensaba en estos días, tratando de entender las distintas posiciones que ha tomado América Latina frente a la guerra de Ucrania. El continente, que en 2001 condenó casi sin fisuras la intervención norteamericana en Afganistán, que mayoritariamente se opuso a la guerra de Irak en 2003, está fatalmente dividido en lo que concierne a la acción criminal de la Rusia de Putin.…  Seguir leyendo »

Hacer posible la victoria ucraniana

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Casi un año después de la invasión rusa de Ucrania, la guerra entra en una nueva fase. Tras el fallido ataque a Kiev la primavera pasada y la impresionante contraofensiva de los ucranianos que liberaron Kharkiv en el norte y Kherson en el sur, el presidente ruso Vladimir Putin se ha embarcado en una campaña de castigo dirigida contra civiles e infraestructuras energéticas con drones y misiles. Fracasada su estrategia en el campo de batalla, Putin trata de aumentar al máximo el número de ucranianos obligados a pasar el invierno en el frío y la oscuridad.

La línea del frente apenas se ha movido en los últimos meses.…  Seguir leyendo »

Fighting in Donetsk, Ukraine, January 2023. Viacheslav Ratynskyi / Reuters

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The next six months will witness a great deal of human tragedy. Ukraine’s armed forces will face harsh battlefield conditions, and Ukrainian civilians will continue to endure daily Russian attacks. Meanwhile, Russia’s underequipped and poorly led troops will suffer thousands of casualties, destroying the country’s remaining fighting capability. Already, the Russian military has suffered “significantly more than 100,000” deaths and injuries, according to the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley. And thanks to the neglect and cruel indifference of President Vladimir Putin’s regime, thousands more will perish this winter because of the Kremlin’s callous disregard for human life.…  Seguir leyendo »

Soldiers at the Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces, near Moscow, January 2023. Yulia Morozova / Reuters

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In the late Soviet era, only twice did Moscow’s military interrupt the daily lives of ordinary citizens. The first occasion was the invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968, which went largely unnoticed by many Russians because few knew what was going on. The second was the invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, which had far greater consequences. For many people, the sight of zinc coffins being flown back from a distant southern country, even as Marxism-Leninism was losing currency at home, shattered the moral foundations of the Soviet project.

In 2022, Moscow’s military once again interrupted the lives of ordinary citizens with an invasion, and the result has been even worse than either of those previous events: Russia has just lived through the most terrifying year in post-Soviet history.…  Seguir leyendo »

A celebration of France’s announcement last February that it would withdraw troops from Mali included a poster of President Vladimir Putin of Russia. Florent Vergnes/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

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One of the groups that have risen to international prominence (or infamy) with the invasion of Ukraine is Wagner, a Kremlin-backed mercenary outfit that regularly employs former criminals. In Ukraine, they often fight when conventional Russian Army troops flee the battlefield, and they are noted for their brutality.

But it’s Wagner’s activities in Africa, especially the geopolitically important Sahel region, that require closer attention. Formed in 2014 by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a longtime loyalist of President Vladimir Putin of Russia, Wagner was created to support Russia’s initial foray into Ukraine nine years ago. Since then, it has evolved into a shadowy network of mercenaries deployed throughout the globe.…  Seguir leyendo »

Yevgeny Prigozhin. Anadolu Agency, via Getty Images

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Al parecer, el presidente de Rusia, Vladimir Putin, por fin se dio cuenta de que la guerra en Ucrania creó a un competidor peligroso para su poder: Yevgeny Prigozhin, fundador de la empresa militar privada Grupo Wagner, cuyas tropas combaten junto al ejército ruso.

Dependiendo del punto de vista de cada persona, Prigozhin podría ser considerado la persona del año o el villano del año. Según varias fuentes de Moscú, Putin confía en poder debilitar a Prigozhin, quien ha tenido tensiones con el Estado Mayor del ejército. Sin embargo, el efecto podría ser el contrario, y más gente vería a Prigozhin como la figura con más probabilidades de suceder a Putin.…  Seguir leyendo »

Un tanque Leopard 2A6 del ejército alemán en unas maniobras. Reuters Omicrono

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Un año después de que Rusia comenzara su guerra genocida a gran escala, la victoria de Ucrania es más necesaria que nunca.

Los aliados occidentales deben intensificar la ayuda militar y proporcionar a Ucrania armas pesadas. Y no sólo para que Kiev resista, sino para que salga victoriosa y derrote al Kremlin.

Esto plantea la pregunta de qué significa una victoria para Ucrania. ¿Expulsar a Rusia de su territorio y restaurar sus fronteras? ¿Alcanzar un acuerdo para las reparaciones y la reconstrucción del país? ¿La expansión de la OTAN, con Ucrania y otros países como nuevos miembros?

Ante la perspectiva de un conflicto prolongado, los aliados occidentales podrían verse tentados de bajar la guardia y ver la victoria militar simplemente como una cuestión geopolítica.…  Seguir leyendo »

A German-designed Leopard tank in Nowogard, Poland, on May 19. (Wojtek Radwanski/AFP/Getty Images)

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Well, we tried creative ambiguity, and see where it got us. For decades, we have used diplomatic doublespeak on the subject of NATO and Ukraine — and it has ended in total disaster.

We spent years telling Ukrainians that we have an “open door” policy in NATO, and that they have the right to “choose their own destiny”, and that Russia should not be able to exercise a veto.

And all that time we have overtly signaled to Moscow that Ukraine is never going to join the alliance — because so many NATO members will simply exercise their veto themselves.

In principle, yes; in practice, no.…  Seguir leyendo »

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On Febraury 24th, the war in Ukraine will pass its one-year mark with no end in sight. The costs are mounting, Europe faces an epic refugee crisis, tens of thousands of people have died and total casualties now run into the hundreds of thousands. Plans to provide Ukraine with Western tanks, announced in recent days, indicate that America, Germany and others are settling in for a much longer war. But in a prolonged conflict, far more will perish. Western leaders would be making a big mistake by not pushing for negotiations to end the fighting, even as they continue to support Ukraine.…  Seguir leyendo »

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It is almost one year since Russian troops invaded Ukraine. In that time thousands of innocent civilians, as well as soldiers from both sides, have been killed. Towns and cities have crumbled under Russian strikes. The devastation has led some to call for Ukraine to sit down with Russia and negotiate peace. Yet the morale of Ukraine’s armed forces is as strong as ever, and its soldiers have defended their homeland more successfully than most thought possible. It would be a huge mistake for the country to enter into peace talks with Russia now.

There are many reasons why negotiating with Russia would be foolish.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Olaf Scholz ha acabado cediendo a las presiones para enviar tanques Leopard 2 a Ucrania. Pero no piensen ni por un momento que ha cambiado de postura. Está haciendo lo mínimo que necesita hacer para fingir que Alemania sigue siendo un miembro fiable de la alianza occidental. Scholz transmite alto y claro a su electorado y al resto del mundo que es el socio reacio del bloque. Preveo que este mismo patrón se repetirá cuando discutamos la próxima tanda de tanques o cuando se trate de aviones de combate.

Oigo a algunos afirmar que el primer ministro apoya subrepticiamente a Rusia al tiempo que simula dar su apoyo a Ucrania.…  Seguir leyendo »

Tanque Leopard 2PL. Foto: Silar (CC BY-SA 4.0 /Wikimedia Commons).

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La decisión de enviar o no carros Leopard a Ucrania ha dividido a los miembros del Grupo de Contacto que suministran armamento a sus Fuerzas Armadas. Mientras países como el Reino Unido, Polonia y Finlandia creen que su envío permitirá a éstas recuperar su capacidad ofensiva, otros no creen que sea oportuno hacerlo. Aun así, han aceptado su envío y sólo su efecto sobre el campo de batalla decidirá si han sido una solución o van a ser un problema.

Finalmente, y tras un complicado proceso de decisiones, los países que apoyan a Ucrania han aceptado el envío de carros de combate.…  Seguir leyendo »

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow in June 2019. (Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP)

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Russia has a lot more people, a larger economy and a more powerful military than Ukraine. By all rights, it should have crushed Ukraine at the start of the war. That this didn’t happen — and that the war is now heading into its second year with Kyiv in a good position to regain more lost ground — can be explained in no small part by the reality that Ukraine has many allies and Russia does not.

The Kiel Institute for the World Economy estimates that the United States and Europe have pledged roughly $100 billion in military and economic aid to Ukraine since the Russian invasion.…  Seguir leyendo »

A NATO military exercise in Bemowo Piskie, Poland, May 2022. Kacper Pempel / Reuters

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Nearly a year after he invaded Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has failed to achieve any of his major objectives. He has not unified the alleged single Slavic nation, he has not “denazified” or “demilitarized” Ukraine, and he has not stopped NATO expansion. Instead, the Ukrainian military kept Russian troops out of Kyiv, defended Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, and launched successful counteroffensives in the fall so that by the end of 2022, it had liberated over 50 percent of the territory previously captured by Russian soldiers that year. In January, Putin removed the general in charge of the war in Ukraine, Sergei Surovikin, whom he had appointed just a few months earlier.…  Seguir leyendo »

Herrumbrosos tanques

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Aunque “Horas de invierno”, el melancólico artículo publicado por Larra en El Español el 25 de diciembre de 1836, es decir, el último día de Navidad de su vida, ha pasado a la posteridad por la lamentación “¡escribir en Madrid es llorar!”, sus primeros párrafos desarrollan una tesis geopolítica sorprendentemente vigente.

Tras dolerse por la decadencia del “orgullo nacional”, Larra se centraba en las contiendas que habían marcado el inicio del siglo XIX: “Juguete hace años de la intriga extranjera, nuestro suelo es el campo de batalla de los demás pueblos. Aquí vienen los principios encontrados a darse al combate: desde Bonaparte, desde Trafalgar, la España es el Bois de Boulogne de los desafíos europeos”.…  Seguir leyendo »