The crisis in Cyprus has taken a nasty turn, but it will not wreck the euro. Chancellor Angela Merkel will simply not allow it to happen. For Germany the euro is the goose that lays golden eggs. It has allowed Germany to accumulate more than €1 trillion in trade surplus with other E.U. countries in a little more than a decade. Germany will not let the golden goose die.
The European sovereign debt crisis has fundamentally changed Europe’s geopolitical map. Instead of Europe being divided into West and East as it was during the Cold War, the Continent has become divided into a relatively prosperous North and a chaotic South.… Seguir leyendo »
Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany was welcomed to Athens this week with signs saying: “Angela don’t cry. There is nothing left in the larder to take.”
Although we may sympathize with ordinary Greeks who are suffering through a severe recession, double-digit unemployment and a government that cannot honor its spending obligations, that remains an uncharitable and misguided way of framing the problem.
Merkel did not visit Athens to pillage; she was there to try to help the Greeks.
In fact, if the euro is to survive, German policymakers have to play a much more assertive role in the governance of the euro zone.… Seguir leyendo »
The familiar view of Germany’s role in the euro crisis is simple enough: Germany has been the principal beneficiary of the euro, and for this reason ought to show solidarity with those euro-zone members in crisis. Once the euro zone is back on its feet, Germany will be the main beneficiary again.
Unfortunately, this view does not appear to fit the facts. Those who think that Germany has been a winner with the euro almost always rest their case on Germany’s export surpluses. The euro created stability; it eliminated exchange rate risks; appreciated less than the Deutsch mark would have, and thus aided German exports.… Seguir leyendo »
Les idées économiques se retournent comme des chaussettes. Exemple le débat sur le dysfonctionnement de la zone euro et la place qu'y occupe l'Allemagne. L'Allemagne aurait profité du mécanisme de l'euro, sans doute au détriment de certains de ses voisins. Christine Lagarde a exprimé cette thèse avec force quand elle a demandé que le gouvernement allemand pousse davantage la consommation interne et donc les exportations vers l'Allemagne des autres pays de la zone euro. Il faut être deux pour un tango, disait-elle.
Pas du tout, répond Hans-Werner Sinn, président du réputé institut IFO dans Le Monde du 28 octobre 2010 : "Non, l'Allemagne n'a pas été la grande bénéficiaire de l'euro".… Seguir leyendo »
L'Allemagne a profité de l'euro de la même manière que tous les autres pays européens. L'euro a créé une zone de stabilité en Europe et protégé les pays membres contre les turbulences monétaires. Grâce à lui, le taux d'inflation a été plus bas que celui enregistré par le deutschemark au cours de ses cinquante ans d'existence. Il a favorisé le commerce et a été un pas important vers la poursuite de l'intégration politique de l'Europe. Mais a-t-il aidé l'Allemagne davantage que les autres pays ?
Nombreux sont ceux, dont Christine Lagarde, qui le pensent, compte tenu de l'excédent des exportations de l'économie allemande.… Seguir leyendo »
Prior to the introduction of the euro, European economies running big trade deficits routinely devalued their currencies against the Deutschmark and other currencies tied to it. This prompted allegations of beggar-thy-neighbor activity and even calls for protectionism.
One of the key arguments for the euro was that it would put an end to these so-called “competitive devaluations,” opening the way for a deepening of the European Union’s single market and improved economic growth.
But competitive devaluations between members of the eurozone are alive and well and arguably pose a bigger threat to the single market — and with it to the future of the euro — than currency flexibility ever did
Germany is often held up as an example of how to deal with the rigors of the euro.… Seguir leyendo »
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