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El canciller alemán, Olaf Scholz, durante una visita oficial a Moscú en 2022.EFE

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Las disputas más trascendentales en la política suelen ser las que tienen lugar dentro de los partidos políticos, no entre ellos. En Alemania, estas rupturas internas son muy poco frecuentes. La última tuvo lugar en 1959, cuando el Partido Socialdemócrata de Alemania (SPD, por sus siglas en alemán) rompió con el marxismo y se convirtió en uno de los partidos de centroizquierda más populares de Europa. El SPD podría estar a punto de sufrir otro cambio de este tipo, pero esta vez las fuerzas de resistencia son más formidables.

Un grupo de eminentes historiadores alemanes, todos ellos miembros del SPD, ha escrito una carta abierta para criticar la negativa del partido a distanciarse de Vladímir Putin y por no apoyar a Ucrania.…  Seguir leyendo »

Desde la izquierda, el canciller alemán, Olaf Scholz; el primer ministro polaco, Donald Tusk, y el presidente francés, Emmanuel Macron, pasan revista a las tropas este viernes en Berlín.Annegret Hilse (REUTERS)

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Olaf Scholz no va a ganar la reelección en 2025 apoyándose en su historial económico. Su plan es ganarla sobre la base de una gran apuesta geopolítica: el compromiso de no enviar tropas alemanas a Ucrania pase lo que pase.

La promesa llegó inmediatamente después de las reflexiones públicas de Emmanuel Macron hace dos semanas sobre el envío de tropas de tierra a Ucrania. Los comentarios asustaron a los alemanes. El por lo general circunspecto Scholz se presentó acto seguido en un pleno del Ayuntamiento y rechazó la idea para que constara en acta. A este rechazo se une su antigua negativa a enviar misiles de crucero Taurus a Ucrania.…  Seguir leyendo »

Demonstrators stage a rally in support of Ukraine during the Munich Security Conference in Munich on Feb. 17. Johannes Simon/Getty Images

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The alarm calls are coming thick and fast. War could be coming for us. One after another, military chiefs from across Europe are urging publics to get ready. Political leaders, from Britain to the Nordic countries and Baltic States, increasingly emphasize that Europeans need to be prepared for a major war with Russia.

Yet Germany continues its sleepy way along the same path as if nothing is wrong and nothing needs to change. Remarkably, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz still hasn’t said that Ukraine should win its war. Though he knows and talks about the consequences that a Russian victory in Ukraine would have for Europe, he will only say that Ukraine should not lose.…  Seguir leyendo »

‘Putin’s Russia spent decades courting German political elites.’ The Russian president, left, with the former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder in Berlin, 2005. Photograph: Herbert Knosowski/AP

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Under the veneer of western unity in support of Ukraine, reactions to the war across Europe have been informed by different countries’ readings of their own history, of earlier conflicts on this continent, and by their conceptions of Russia’s national character. There is no automatic consensus within democratic societies about the lessons of the past, nor should there be. Remembrance is often selective, and the way ahead involves a discussion about what went wrong before.

Nowhere has this process of revisiting the past in search of the right decisions for the future been more fraught since the Russian invasion than in Germany.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Decisive Test for Germany Is Still to Come

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After months of indecision, hand-wringing and uncertainty, Germany last week committed to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. The delay was a measure of the decision’s significance. For a country long wary of active military involvement in conflicts, the release of its most advanced war machine for battle with Russian troops is momentous. A taboo has been shed.

The decision has revealed something of an enigma. Who is the man leading Germany during the fiercest conflict in Europe since World War II: a strategic genius or a fainthearted dawdler? Over a year into his tenure, Chancellor Olaf Scholz remains hard to decipher.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Olaf Scholz ha acabado cediendo a las presiones para enviar tanques Leopard 2 a Ucrania. Pero no piensen ni por un momento que ha cambiado de postura. Está haciendo lo mínimo que necesita hacer para fingir que Alemania sigue siendo un miembro fiable de la alianza occidental. Scholz transmite alto y claro a su electorado y al resto del mundo que es el socio reacio del bloque. Preveo que este mismo patrón se repetirá cuando discutamos la próxima tanda de tanques o cuando se trate de aviones de combate.

Oigo a algunos afirmar que el primer ministro apoya subrepticiamente a Rusia al tiempo que simula dar su apoyo a Ucrania.…  Seguir leyendo »

A German Leopard 2 tank during a demonstration event held for the media by the German Bundeswehr in Munster near Hanover in 2011. (Michael Sohn/AP)

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Eighty years ago, the hinge of history swung just north of Ukraine. There, the outcome of World War II in Europe was determined in the largest tank battle ever, a boiling cauldron in what was called the Kursk salient. Raging from July 5 to Aug. 23, 1943, the clash between German and Soviet forces involved what military historian John Keegan termed “tank armadas”, a total of about 6,000 tanks and 2 million troops. After this, Germany never again had the strategic initiative on the Eastern Front, where, 10 months before D-Day, attrition guaranteed Adolf Hitler’s defeat.

Today, the outcome of the first major European war since 1945 might turn on tanks, particularly German Leopard 2 s.…  Seguir leyendo »

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock delivers a speech during the congress of the Green Party in Bonn, Germany, on Oct. 15. (Ina Fassbender/AFP/Getty Images)

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On Tuesday, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock made headlines with a surprise visit to the heavily damaged city of Kharkiv in northeast Ukraine. Though she didn’t address the controversy raging at home over whether to supply Kyiv with powerful German tanks, she did promise more weapons — which, she said, would help Ukraine “free its citizens who are still suffering under the terror of Russian occupation”. That was far more forceful than anything Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said in recent weeks. The war in Ukraine, it turns out, is Baerbock’s fight too — for the chance to become the next German chancellor.…  Seguir leyendo »

A Christmas market in front of Berlin's Charlottenburg Palace illuminated in the Ukrainian national colors on Nov. 24. (Lisi Niesner/Reuters)

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An American friend called me the other day, having just returned from Berlin. He told me he’d been struck by how deeply Russia’s war in Ukraine has affected Germany. He could trace its impact throughout his visit. One telltale sign he mentioned — dimly lit airports and streets in the late afternoon of his arrival — seemed a bit superficial to me. That, after all, is almost nothing compared with Russia’s systematic attacks on the Ukrainian energy system and the hardships it is inflicting on the Ukrainian people. And yet his impression — as first impressions often do — had the ring of a more profound truth.…  Seguir leyendo »

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz inspecting a gas turbine, Muelheim an der Ruhr, Germany, August 2022. Wolfgang Rattay / Reuters

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In late July 2022, it emerged that Germany’s plan to help its eastern European allies arm Ukraine had made little progress. According to the scheme, countries such as Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic would supply Kyiv with Soviet-era weaponry from their armed forces; in turn, Germany would transfer its own Western-made equipment to replenish the stock of those countries. Yet despite months of talks, no such transfers of German weapons have been made.

This was not the first example of Berlin having difficulties carrying out its promises on Ukraine. In early spring, Germany pledged to provide heavy weapons directly to Kyiv, but as late as July, only a few such weapons had been delivered.…  Seguir leyendo »

An elderly woman holds a portrait of Soviet leader Josef Stalin near Red Square ahead of celebrations to mark the 70th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany and the end of World War II in Moscow on May 7, 2015. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

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Russian President Vladimir Putin has sent the Russian army to reenact World War II in a grotesque, postmodern key. His “special operation” to “de-Nazify” Ukraine is an unprovoked attack on a sovereign democratic state and a campaign of mass slaughter. The Ukrainian military has been defending Ukraine much more skillfully than the Russian military has been attacking it. (Ukrainians know why they are fighting.) Nevertheless, the Kremlin has an enormous advantage in terms of its arsenal, the size of its economy, and comfortable indifference to lives lost. That Putin recognizes no moral constraints gives him a free hand. The fate of Ukraine—and arguably the rest of the world—hinges on the arms other countries provide.…  Seguir leyendo »

Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany in Brussels in May. His promise of action has faded into months of delay. John Thys/Agence France-Presse, via Getty Images

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In a time of war, every day counts.

When Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Germany seemed to grasp that straight away. Within days, Parliament agreed on sanctions against Russia and promised the delivery of weapons to Ukraine. Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke of a “Zeitenwende”, a watershed marking the period before and after Russia’s attack on Ukraine. It was necessary, he said in a passionate address, to set limits to “warmongers like Putin”. Gone was the taboo about supplying weapons to war zones, so too the country’s characteristic caution. In a blink of an eye, Germany appeared to have changed forever.…  Seguir leyendo »

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¿Logrará sobrevivir el modelo económico alemán a la guerra del presidente Vladímir Putin contra Ucrania? Como mencioné en una charla reciente en la Universidad de Harvard, para responder a esa pregunta tenemos que repasar la historia económica reciente.

La economía de Alemania se transformó después de la caída del comunismo en 1989. La liberalización del comercio con sus vecinos orientales tuvo tres profundas consecuencias internas. En primer lugar, llevó a la negociación salarial descentralizada. En segundo lugar, acható la estructura jerárquica administrativa de las empresas alemanas. Y, en tercer lugar, amplió las redes productivas alemanas hacia Europa Central y Oriental.

En cuanto a la primera situación, la apertura de la Europa excomunista —donde el precio de la mano de obra era menor— cambió el equilibrio de poder entre los sindicatos y la federación de empleadores alemanes.…  Seguir leyendo »

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For those who have accused the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, of dithering, or worse, over the war in Ukraine, his speech to the German Bundestag on June 1st was a revelation. Announcing the delivery of fresh arms to Ukraine, Mr Scholz was passionate and combative, rebutting criticism from the opposition in unscripted, lively language. He promised modern air-defence and radar systems to Ukraine, as well as support for America’s efforts to provide rocket launchers.

Mr Scholz would never present it as such, but the speech represented a big pushback at critics of Germany who have been out in force in recent weeks.…  Seguir leyendo »

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When German diplomats in Brussels recently tried to convince their Hungarian counterparts to sign up to the European Commission’s plan for an embargo on Russian oil, they heard arguments that must have sounded familiar. Until recently, Germany also rejected such calls as unrealistic and economically disruptive. “Geht nicht” (“Can’t do”) was the mantra from the chancellor’s office.

But on April 26th Robert Habeck, Germany’s economy minister, declared that the country could stop all Russian oil imports “within a few days”. What happened? The problem turned out to be less intractable than many had assumed. Mr Habeck’s team had secured alternative supplies of crude for two east German refineries that process Russian oil.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Ahora sabemos que Olaf Scholz intervino personalmente para bloquear la entrega de armamento pesado a Ucrania. En defensa de su acción, alegó que Rusia consideraría esas entregas un acto de guerra. En concreto, mencionó la guerra nuclear.

Un comentario extraordinario. Si esto fuera verdad, ¿por qué Scholz no hace campaña contra las entregas de armas a nivel de la OTAN? ¿Tiene información de que Vladímir Putin atacaría Alemania? ¿Quizá Alemania es más vulnerable a un ataque ruso porque, a diferencia de Estados Unidos, Reino Unido y Francia, no tiene armamento nuclear propio? Desde la perspectiva del derecho internacional, la entrega de armas a un país que está siendo atacado no constituye un acto de guerra.…  Seguir leyendo »

‘Worst crisis since the second world war’: Germany prepares for a Russian gas embargo

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Rosenthal, one of Germany’s oldest porcelain manufacturers, has seen plenty of disruption in its 140-year history. But nothing has prepared it for this: the threat of a cut-off of natural gas that would bring production of its bone china plates, bowls and vases to an abrupt halt.

“We can’t live without gas”, says Mads Ryder, Rosenthal’s chief executive. “We don’t have an alternative energy source”.

The war in Ukraine is reordering the global energy landscape. Shocked by the devastation visited on Ukrainian cities by Russian bombs, the EU has imposed swingeing sanctions on Russian hydrocarbons. Coal is banned; oil could be next.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Desde que el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, lanzó su invasión a Ucrania, el gobierno alemán ha estado bajo una creciente presión para sumarse a un embargo a la energía rusa propuesto por Europa. El consenso generalizado es que para frenar la guerra de Rusia hace falta cortar su financiamiento, que proviene en forma de miles de millones de dólares de pagos por exportaciones de petróleo y de gas.

El gobierno alemán se opone a un embargo energético. El ministro de Economía, Robert Habeck, sostiene que se traduciría en un alto volumen de desempleo, pobreza y malestar social generalizado. Ahora bien, ¿estos temores son válidos?…  Seguir leyendo »

Unos activistas con máscaras del canciller Olaf Scholz y del ministro de Economía, Robert Habeck, protestan contra la importación de gas y petróleo de Rusia, el pasado viernes en Berlín.Fabian Sommer (AP)

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Últimamente, el gas se ha vuelto un tema: es un problema. El gas no tiene buena prensa. No suena amable, no suena prestigioso, suena amenazador. Respiramos oxígeno en estado gaseoso, gas de oxígeno: sin ese gas no viviríamos. Pero cuando pensamos en gas pensamos en algo ajeno, peligroso. Y ahora, además, nos complica la vida.

(La palabra gas es un invento. Las palabras, en general, no lo son: se van formando poco a poco, a través de siglos y lenguajes varios, hasta que cristalizan en estas que usamos. Gas, en cambio, no; la inventó hacia 1640 un Jan Baptista Van Helmont, químico, físico, médico, alquimista flamenco, que nació y vivió en Bruselas cuando esos países eran tan bajos que todavía eran españoles.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Air raid sirens were part of my childhood.

Every Wednesday at 1 p.m., their eerie howl permeated the East German town of Strausberg where I grew up. The purpose of these weekly drills was to keep us alert, to remind us that no matter how peaceful things appeared, nuclear war was always just one bad decision away. Germans — in the East and the West — knew that the fault line of the Cold War was right underneath their feet.

But with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, our collective tensions fizzled out, and most of the sirens were dismantled.…  Seguir leyendo »