Buscador avanzado

Russian RS-24 Yars ballistic missiles roll in Red Square during the Victory Day military parade in Moscow on June 24, 2020. (Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP)

The terrible concoction of conscription, annexation and nuclear weapons that Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered last week presents a crucial test to every major world leader. Global outrage is needed, but the spotlight now shines brightest on China’s President Xi Jinping. He needs to step forward in pressing Putin to de-escalate and end this war, especially since Russian miscalculations are forcing major geopolitical decisions, specifically security challenges in Asia.

In his Sept. 21 speech, Putin desperately sought to align Russia’s military and political objectives into a coherent, albeit misguided, whole. He announced Russia’s call up of reservists to hold the Donbas region of Ukraine, where Russian forces have withdrawn to more defensible lines after being pummeled by the Ukrainian counterattack near Kharkiv.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing in 2018. (Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP)

Almost seven months into the Russia-Ukraine war, China is still claiming to be a neutral party, despite the evidence. And when Vladimir Putin meets Xi Jinping this week, the falsity of that claim will come into full and dramatic view. China’s increasing support for Russia is driving some in Ukraine to push for closer cooperation with Taiwan, a fellow democracy under threat.

The Ukrainian government has been careful to walk a fine line in its relations with Beijing and Taipei. Even though Xi and Putin pledged a partnership with “no limits” when they last met in February, the idea that Ukraine should develop closer ties with Taipei has been controversial in Kyiv.…  Seguir leyendo »

U.S. Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump don’t agree on much, but their administrations together have executed the most important pivot in U.S. foreign policy since the 9/11 terrorist attacks: centering grand strategy around systematic great-power competition with China and Russia. For the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States has genuine rivals for international leadership with the ability to potentially defeat U.S. forces in military conflict. Yet approaching this geopolitical earthquake purely as a competition doesn’t tell the full story and makes it hard for presidents to garner popular support for difficult policy choices in what is a generational struggle.…  Seguir leyendo »

El presidente Joe Biden, al resumir el mundo actual como un conflicto entre democracia y autocracia, muy probablemente peca de una simplificación excesiva, pero tampoco se equivoca. Aparentemente, no hay nada que permita comparar civilizaciones y situaciones geopolíticas tan distintas como Ucrania y Taiwán, pero resulta que ambas han respirado el aire de la democracia, es decir, de la libertad de expresión y el Estado de derecho. Parece pues que este aire es propio de la condición humana, muy agradable de respirar, sea cual sea la cultura de origen.

No se puede negar que, de hecho, los ucranianos son de civilización rusa, igual que los taiwaneses son, de hecho, de civilización china.…  Seguir leyendo »

Ilustración que muestra la bandera china y la taiwanesa. Reuters

1. Rusia y China reivindican Ucrania y Taiwán como parte irrenunciable de su territorio. Miran al pasado para conquistar el futuro. Excitan el nacionalismo y los sentimientos identitarios de sus ciudadanos. Son dos claros ejemplos de populismo. Sus reivindicaciones se remontan a Catalina la grande y al emperador Qin Shi Huang. Las dos revoluciones marxistas, las de Lenin y Mao Zedong, lo cambiaron todo.

2. Rusia necesita los recursos minerales y agrícolas de Ucrania, así como su posición estratégica (por su salida al Mediterráneo). China necesita los recursos pesqueros y petrolíferos, actualmente en disputa, de las aguas que comparte con Taiwán.…  Seguir leyendo »

¿Será la invasión de Rusia a Ucrania meramente el primero de una serie de conflictos que harán que Europa luzca más como Oriente Medio en los próximos años? Un académico chino que pidió mantenerse en el anonimato me hizo esa pregunta la semana pasada, y su razonamiento me mostró lo distinto que ven los no occidentales una guerra que está transformando el orden geopolítico europeo.

Al intercambiar opiniones con académicos chinos sobre cómo ven el mundo, me he dado cuenta de que parten de una posición fundamentalmente distinta a la de muchos occidentales. No es solo que tienden más a responsabilizar a la ampliación de la OTAN que al Kremlin por la guerra de Ucrania, sino que varios de sus supuestos básicos son también los opuestos de los nuestros.…  Seguir leyendo »

Taiwanese demonstrators staging a pro-Ukrainian "die-in" protest in Taipei, April 2022. Reuters / I-Hwa Cheng

Beyond Europe, the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is being felt most keenly 5,000 miles away, on the island of Taiwan. Many Taiwanese worry that they might be the next to suffer an invasion by a more powerful neighbor. Those fears are not unreasonable. While Ukraine and Taiwan differ in many ways, as relatively young democracies living alongside larger authoritarian neighbors with long-standing designs on their territory, the two face strikingly similar strategic predicaments.

Much as Russian President Vladimir Putin has described restoring the “historical unity” between Russia and Ukraine as a kind of spiritual mission, Chinese President Xi Jinping believes that reuniting mainland China with what he views as its lost province of Taiwan will help cement his place in history.…  Seguir leyendo »

Xi Jinping in the Great Hall of th​e People, Beijing, March 2017. Qilai Shen / Panos Pictures / Redu​x

Russia’s war in Ukraine has produced a strategic predicament for China. On the one hand, the conflict has disrupted billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese trade, heightened tensions in East Asia, and deepened political polarization within China by dividing people into pro- and anti-Russia camps. On the other, China blames the United States for provoking Russia with its support for NATO expansion and worries that Washington will seek to prolong the conflict in Ukraine in order to bog down Russia. Beijing sees little to gain from joining the international chorus condemning Moscow.

Regardless of what China says or does in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to wage war in Ukraine, Washington is unlikely to soften its strategy of containment toward Beijing.…  Seguir leyendo »

La invasión a Ucrania por parte del Presidente ruso Vladimir Putin y el creciente autoritarismo del Presidente chino Xi Jinping han despertado tardíamente a gran parte del planeta sobre el fracaso de la apuesta geopolítica hecha por los Estados Unidos y sus aliados hace una generación. La necesaria respuesta a las sombrías nuevas realidades de hoy refleja los costes de haberla perdido. Todo cambiará, desde las alianzas de seguridad, los presupuestos militares y el comercio internacional a los flujos financieros y las políticas energéticas y medioambientales.

La apuesta que los países occidentales hicieron en los años 90 fue que la integración de Rusia y China a la comunidad internacional a través del comercio y el intercambio de bienes y servicios aceleraría sus reformas políticas y económicas.…  Seguir leyendo »

Melaniya Kovalenko, 90, hugs a donated toy doll outside her home in Bucha, Ukraine, on April 18. She said she intends to give the toy to her grandchildren. (Emilio Morenatti/AP)

Ukraine is once again blighted with mass graves and, where war has prevented the digging of pits, littered with individual corpses of innocent civilians. But according to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, the great threat to peace in the world is not the murderer Vladimir Putin. It is “the Cold War mentality” of the West, which has the nerve to use sanctions to try to end the carnage.

Xi spoke April 21 by video to the annual Boao Forum for Asia. Nearly two months had passed since Russian troops and tanks invaded Ukraine unprovoked, in the worst strategic blunder of the 21st century.…  Seguir leyendo »

China y Rusia exponen las debilidades del autoritarismo

La década pasada lucía bien para los regímenes autoritarios y desafiante para los democráticos. Las ciberherramientas, los drones, la tecnología de reconocimiento facial y las redes sociales parecían hacer que los líderes autoritarios eficientes fueran aún más eficientes y las democracias, cada vez más ingobernables.

El mundo occidental perdió la confianza en sí mismo, y los líderes rusos y chinos se lo restregaron e hicieron correr la voz de que los caóticos sistemas democráticos eran una fuerza que se había agotado.

Y luego sucedió algo inesperado: Rusia y China se extralimitaron.

Vladimir Putin invadió Ucrania y, para su sorpresa, provocó una guerra indirecta con la OTAN y Occidente.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Outsiders

In late February, as Russian forces moved into Ukraine, Vladimir Putin declared that his offensive was aimed not just at bringing Russia’s neighbor to heel but also at repudiating the U.S.-led liberal international order. “Where the West comes to establish its own order”, the Russian president railed, “the result is bloody, unhealed wounds, ulcers of international terrorism and extremism”. Moscow would now seek to roll back the expanding order as “a matter of life and death, a matter of our historical future as a people”. Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine is only the most recent act in a years-long effort to overturn the existing status quo, one that has featured cyberattacks, assassinations, a war against Georgia, meddling in U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

As Russia continues to brutalize Ukraine, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is trying to appear neutral while taking steps that reveal his support for Moscow. Under his leadership, Beijing has criticized the United States for allegedly triggering the current crisis by enlarging NATO; helped Russia to spread conspiracy theories about Washington’s involvement in a nonexistent biological weapons program in Ukraine; taken exception to Western sanctions; and provided Russian President Vladimir Putin with a lifeline amid Russia’s deepening economic crisis.

Citing a Chinese proverb, Xi has told U.S. President Joe Biden “Let he who tied the bell to the tiger’s neck untie it “only he who tied the bell to the tiger’s neck can untie it”, meaning that he sees Biden as responsible for, and therefore required to resolve, today’s military conflict in Europe.…  Seguir leyendo »

“China always opposes the use of force in international relations”. This boilerplate statement, frequently repeated by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, reflects Beijing’s long-standing, publicly stated opposition to the use of military force outside the limitations imposed by Article 2(4) of the U.N. Charter. It is a fundamental principle of its approach to international law and a significant feature of its self-portrayal as neutral, peaceful state in contrast to the United States. Yet China, which has repeatedly refused to criticize Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, appears to have abandoned its long-standing legal and diplomatic position.

Beijing’s silence on Ukraine may represent a temporary accommodation of its most important geopolitical ally, but it could also represent a meaningful shift in the Chinese government’s views on the propriety of the use of force.…  Seguir leyendo »

From within a war, it is hard to think about what comes next. Rarely has this been more true than for the current Russo-Ukrainian war. Our thinking is necessarily clouded by the suffering that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggression has inflicted on the people of Ukraine. It is also hindered by lack of experience with this kind of warfare. Together, these make it hard to imagine where we go from here, especially amid the dangers of the era of great-power rivalry that this invasion has brought into being. It will be a time of intense competition and menace—much less stable than the Cold War and much riskier than any time since that conflict ended.…  Seguir leyendo »

‘Such pronouncements casually ignore the deep differences between Russian and Chinese interests, motivations, and visions for the global order.’ Photograph: Alexei Druzhinin/AP

In the run-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s highly publicized meeting with Xi Jinping before the Beijing Winter Olympics seems to have crystallized opinion in the west. In the US and its allies, political leaders, commentators and journalists now portray a monolithic authoritarian bloc bent on extinguishing the rules-based order that has safeguarded peace and democracy for decades.

According to the Australian prime minister, Scott Morrison, “a new arc of autocracy is instinctively aligning to challenge and reset the world order in their own image”. Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, characterized the joint communique coming out of the Putin-Xi meeting as aiming to establish “the rule of the strongest [over] the rule of law, intimidation instead of self-determination, coercion instead of cooperation”.…  Seguir leyendo »

El presidente ruso Vladímir Putin creyó que podía capturar Kiev y reemplazar el gobierno de Ucrania en poco tiempo. Sea que se haya dejado engañar por malos datos de inteligencia o por fantasías históricas propias, lo que iba a ser una «operación rápida» falló frente a una resistencia ucraniana eficaz. A continuación, optó por un bombardeo brutal de ciudades como Mariúpol y Járkiv para aterrorizar y someter a la población civil, como antes hizo en Grozny y Alepo. El resultado trágico es que la heroica resistencia de Ucrania ha ido acompañada de un creciente sufrimiento de la población civil.

¿Hay algún modo rápido de poner fin a esta pesadilla?…  Seguir leyendo »

En los últimos días, Estados Unidos ha alertado de que China podría apoyar a Rusia en su guerra contra Ucrania. Desde China se estará observando con detalle la respuesta de EE UU y la UE a la invasión de Ucrania. Sin embargo, tres factores hacen pensar que a la República Popular China no le interesa ni una guerra en Ucrania, ni mucho menos involucrarse en ella. Estos factores son: el actual sistema internacional de Estados soberanos gobernados por instituciones y reglas globales conviene a China; el Partido Comunista y el presidente Xi Jinping necesitan estabilidad económica; y, la relación entre China y Rusia no parece suficientemente sólida.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Chinese Communist Party has a long list of sins, including the systematic repression of basic human rights, industrial espionage, the use of slave labor and genocide. Now, the CCP’s complicity in the atrocities Russia is committing in Ukraine can be added to that list.

Twenty-one years ago, China signed a “Treaty of Friendship” with Russia. It might have started as a marriage of convenience, but that relationship has grown only stronger over time, through cooperation at the United Nations, energy deals and military exercises. Earlier this year, the two nations pledged an unprecedented level of cooperation and coordination. And over the past few weeks, Beijing has enabled Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression.…  Seguir leyendo »

Podría haber parecido una buena idea que el 4 de febrero, justo antes del inicio de los Juegos Olímpicos de Invierno de Pekín, el presidente chino, Xi Jinping, firmara un nuevo acuerdo de amistad “sin límites” con su homólogo ruso, Vladimir Putin.

Después de todo, los dos países comparten un enemigo que perciben como común: Estados Unidos. También comparten el temor a una amenaza similar: por parte de Putin, el “cerco” de la Organización del Tratado del Atlántico Norte (OTAN) y, por parte de Xi, los intentos de “contención” de China por parte de la alianza Estados Unidos-Reino Unido-Australia, conocida como AUKUS.…  Seguir leyendo »