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China logró producir autos eléctricos baratos. EE. UU. tiene que intentarlo también

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Pasó muy rápido, tan rápido que tal vez no lo hayas notado. En los últimos meses, los tres grandes fabricantes de automóviles de Estados Unidos —Ford, General Motors y Stellantis, la empresa del nombre peculiar que es propietaria de Dodge, Chrysler y Jeep— comenzaron a estar en un gran aprieto.

Sé que esto puede sonar ridículo. Ford, General Motors y Stellantis obtuvieron miles de millones en ganancias el año pasado, incluso después de una larga huelga de trabajadores de la industria automotriz, y las tres empresas prevén un gran 2024. Pero hace poco, los Tres Grandes se vieron superados e imposibilitados de alcanzar sus objetivos de ventas de vehículos eléctricos al mismo tiempo que aparecía una línea de nuevos coches eléctricos extranjeros asequibles, listos para inundar el mercado mundial.…  Seguir leyendo »

How to Stop Our High-Tech Equipment From Arming Russia and China

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The U.S. government’s efforts to stop Russia and China from using American equipment to boost their defense sectors have resulted in tough rules — but leaky enforcement. As a result, American-made tools keep turning up in Russian missile factories and in Huawei’s supply chain. With war in Europe and China threatening its neighbors, that’s just not good enough.

The United States and its allies make the most advanced tools for both precision metalworking and semiconductor manufacturing. With international tensions rising, the United States and its allies have been right to try to prohibit adversaries from using these tools to manufacture weapons that undermine America’s military edge.…  Seguir leyendo »

Reunión entre el presidente de EEUU, Joe Biden y el presidente chino, Xi Jinping, en San Francisco, el pasado noviembre.

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Tal como dijera Josep Borrell, "sin cooperación entre los EEUU y China los problemas del mundo no tienen solución". Se mire donde se mire, en efecto, la cooperación entre los Estados, y en primer lugar entre las dos grandes potencias, es indispensable para resolver los problemas con lo que el mundo se enfrenta.

Podemos dividir éstos en tres partes.

En primer lugar, mantener la paz entre las grandes potencias, evitando el riesgo de una hecatombe nuclear.

Segundo, mantener el progreso económico en el mundo.

Tercero, los grandes retos globales, empezando por el cambio climático, las pandemias o la inteligencia artificial.

Hay que felicitarse de que en todos los terrenos se hayan dado pasos significativos en la reciente cumbre de San Francisco entre los presidentes de EEUU y China.…  Seguir leyendo »

Kissinger Was Right About China, and He Still Is

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In the cold winter of 1972, a schoolteacher in a poor Chinese village asked his whole class: “The U.S. president, Nixon, and his adviser Dr. Kissinger will be in China. What should we do?”

Then 8 years old, I was a good student and had just finished my homework — writing down 50 times in Chinese characters the omnipresent political slogan “Down with the American imperialists! Down with the Soviet revisionists! Long live Chairman Mao!”

So I quickly popped up with an answer: “Arrest them, because they are our enemies”.

Within a few years, I realized how wrong I had been.…  Seguir leyendo »

President Joe Biden delivers remarks at a news conference at the Filoli Estate on November 15, 2023 in Woodside, California, following his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. (Photo by Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)

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Foreign policy issues seldom win an incumbent US President an election. But they can certainly lose them one, or at the very least feature heavily.

On 15 November President Joe Biden met President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the annual Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit seeking to maintain diplomatic dialogue and prevent further deterioration of the relationship with China – whilst demonstrating his resolve to domestic audiences. It is a perilous balancing act.

It is almost exactly a year since the presidents last met at the G20 in Indonesia, after China had suspended cooperation in retaliation for Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.…  Seguir leyendo »

Biden–Xi meeting: A must-win in high stakes diplomacy

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Wednesday’s Biden–Xi meeting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco carried an agenda as massive as the stakes. Presidents Biden and Xi reached important agreements, notably restoring high-level military-to-military communications. This four-hour meeting was not just another diplomatic rendezvous; it was a critical juncture to mend a bilateral relationship that has frayed to its thinnest in decades.

Biden and Xi’s last meeting, on the sidelines of last year’s G20 Summit in November 2022, was soon overshadowed by a Chinese spy balloon that quelled any potential for further rapprochement. Now, having engaged in Wednesday’s pivotal talks amid a complex tapestry of global issues, it is essential for the US and China to avoid any ‘balloon-sized’ disruptions to forge meaningful progress going forward.…  Seguir leyendo »

The last time China's President Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden met in person was on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Indonesia, November 14, 2022. Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images

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When President Joe Biden meets Chinese leader Xi Jinping in California on Wednesday, it will mark the first time in exactly one year and one day since the heads of the two nuclear-armed rivals have seen each other in person.

Much has happened since that day in Bali, Indonesia, last year. The two have a long and urgent list of issues to discuss – including two raging wars, a heating planet and a host of other highly flammable issues.

The notion – Biden’s hope – behind the summit is that the two leaders will find a way to manage the competition between their countries in a responsible manner: great powers, coming together as stewards of a dangerous world, working jointly to keep it from spinning out of control.…  Seguir leyendo »

The nuclear talks could lay the groundwork for crucial agreement on risk reduction

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After many years of fruitless ‘talks about talks’, China and the US have just met in Washington for what is hoped to be the first in a series of discussions on nuclear arms control, the first since the Obama administration.

The meetings, said to be at the ‘working level’, will likely focus on developing a new approach based on increasing transparency and risk reduction rather than on numbers and inspections. It is hoped that this discussion will feed into a high-level meeting between Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping in San Francisco later in November.

Until now, China has resisted attempts to enter into talks with the US on either a trilateral (with Russia) or bilateral basis, saying that until the US and Russia reduce their numbers down to China’s level – or until China’s build-up matches the numbers of Russia and the US – they would not join the talks.…  Seguir leyendo »

What America Wants From China

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In recent years, American officials have spoken publicly at great length about competition with China. In February, U.S. President Joe Biden declared in his State of the Union speech that the United States seeks “competition, not conflict” with China. But despite all the speeches, press conferences, and panel discussions, policymakers have not directly answered an essential question: What is the outcome they seek in this competition? When pressed, they often highlight the result the United States hopes to avoid: a new cold war or, even worse, a hot one. Privately, they add that the goal is to tilt the global balance of power toward the United States and its partners as much as possible.…  Seguir leyendo »

Posing with nuclear missiles in Beijing, October 2022. Florence Lo / Reuters

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In a speech this June, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan drew attention to China’s nuclear buildup, Russia’s development of new nuclear capabilities, and the United States’ planned response. His remarks signaled the Biden administration’s assessment that nuclear risks are growing, particularly in the wake of Russia’s suspension of New START, the last U.S.-Russian treaty governing the two states’ nuclear arms, in February. What was most notable about his speech, however, was what he promised President Joe Biden would not do: launch a countervailing U.S. nuclear buildup. On this point, Sullivan was emphatic: “I want to be clear here—the United States does not need to increase our nuclear forces to outnumber the combined total of our competitors in order to successfully deter them”.…  Seguir leyendo »

A paramilitary police officer in Beijing, December 2016. Jason Lee / Reuters

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China is challenging the United States militarily, geopolitically, and economically. These challenges are connected, and the right response must address all three. The answer is a single new policy: a foreign pollution fee. This fee will target imports that are produced with higher greenhouse gas emissions than American-produced goods.

The difference in environmental regulation enforcement between China and the United States lowers the cost of manufacturing in China, thereby encouraging U.S. manufacturing and the jobs associated with it to migrate overseas. Such losses for the United States’ economy put downward pressure on its industrial base and American standards of living.

The benefits Beijing has reaped from this imbalance are striking.…  Seguir leyendo »

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The intensifying rivalry between America and China has led many to speak of a second cold war. Others reject the analogy. We can say this: the world’s two largest economies seem to have little space for co-operation and a great deal of room for conflict.

The greatest difference with the first cold war is, of course, the origin of this rivalry. After the second world war, the two superpowers settled quickly into confrontation. They had little in common. The Soviet Union was a military giant but an economic recluse, isolated from most of the global economy.

China, conversely, was brought into the international economy by its own choices under Deng Xiaoping and by the decisions of global capitalists.…  Seguir leyendo »

Flooding in Beijing, August 2023. Tingshu Wang / Reuters.

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After the U.S. climate envoy John Kerry traveled to Beijing last month for three days of talks with Chinese leaders, he expressed cautious optimism. The trip yielded no new agreements, but the mere fact that it took place, Kerry argued, was a step forward. His verdict underscored just how much the space for cooperation between the United States and China has shrunk, even on a matter as urgent as climate change.

Recent times have not been kind to those hoping for more U.S.-Chinese climate action. As heat, floods, drought, and rising sea levels wallop the globe, the leaders of the world’s two largest economies are barely talking to each other.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Korean War Veterans Memorial in Washington, June 2018 Leah Millis / Reuters

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Seventy years ago this week, the armistice that froze the Korean War was signed. During a year of savage battlefield maneuvering and two more of bitter stalemate, nearly 40,000 American troops gave their lives. Several thousand more allied troops also died, as did millions of Koreans, many of them heroically in combat against communist aggression, and even more as its civilian victims. The southern half of the Korean peninsula, now a thriving democracy, took decades to recover. The northern half never has, remaining impoverished, oppressed, and a source of instability.

The median age of surviving U.S. Korean War veterans is around 90.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Here is talk of President Joe Biden’s climate envoy visiting China in the coming weeks. If the trip goes ahead, John Kerry will be the second senior American official to hold talks in Beijing in under a month. The recent visit of Antony Blinken, the secretary of state, secured the resumption of some of the bilateral dialogues suspended by China after Nancy Pelosi, at the time the speaker of the House of Representatives, went to Taiwan last year.

In the wake of Mr Biden’s meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in Bali last November, Mr Blinken had been expected to go to China earlier this year.…  Seguir leyendo »

U.S. Rep. Buddy Carter questions TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew during a House Energy and Commerce Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., on March 23.

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“Is it a hawkish thing for Trump?”

This irritating little sentence—or variations of it—has been the soundtrack of my life for the past three years. And not a good soundtrack. More like the chorus of “Macarena” played loudly on a long-neglected violin. By a child. On repeat.

This dirge hit my ears over and over again in early 2020 while I was recruiting MPs in several countries to the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC). The idea of IPAC is to build cross-party alliances around the world, with a view to pushing for coordinated policy reform.

Nearly everywhere, and especially on the European left, the anti-Trump chorus echoed along the halls of the world’s parliaments.…  Seguir leyendo »

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At last, tensions between China and America are showing signs of easing, albeit with the occasional setback. At the recent G7 summit, President Joe Biden predicted a near-term “thaw” in relations between the two countries. Last week China’s commerce minister met his American counterpart and the US Trade Representative. This followed talks between America’s national security adviser and the head of the Chinese Communist Party’s Foreign Affairs Commission. This week, however, China’s defence minister, Li Shangfu, reportedly rejected a request from his American opposite number, Lloyd Austin, for a meeting at the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual security forum being held in Singapore on June 2nd-4th.…  Seguir leyendo »

Estados Unidos y China están en rumbo de colisión

MundoAméricaMundoAsiaInternacionalOrden Mundial,

Después de la cumbre del G7 celebrada en mayo en Hiroshima, el presidente de los Estados Unidos Joe Biden afirmó que espera un «descongelamiento» en la relación con China. Pero a pesar de que en tiempos recientes hubo algunas reuniones bilaterales oficiales (y la secretaria del Tesoro de los Estados Unidos Janet Yellen expresó esperanzas de visitar China pronto) dicha relación todavía es glacial.

De hecho, más que descongelarse, la nueva guerra fría se está poniendo cada vez más fría, y la cumbre del G7 amplificó las inquietudes chinas respecto de que Estados Unidos sigue una estrategia de «contención, aislamiento y supresión integral».…  Seguir leyendo »

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El número de abril del World Economic Outlook, la publicación semestral del Fondo Monetario Internacional, estima que la eventual división de la economía mundial en dos bloques, dominados por Estados Unidos y China, ocasionaría en el plazo de cinco años una reducción del PIB global de entre el 1 y el 2%.

Ello se debería a medidas restrictivas diversas. Entre ellas, los aranceles punitivos, las restricciones al movimiento de capitales y a las transferencias de tecnología, y la repatriación de cadenas de producción (re-shoring) o su orientación hacia países amigos (friend-shoring) propugnadas por Estados Unidos.

En la reunión de Davos de febrero, la directora de la Organización Mundial del Comercio, Ngozi Okongo-Iweala, anticipaba una caída del PIB global del 5% a largo plazo.…  Seguir leyendo »

El choque a cámara lenta de Estados Unidos y China sigue su curso

MundoAméricaMundoAsiaInternacionalOrden Mundial,

Hace poco asistí en Beijing al Foro sobre Desarrollo de China (FDC), una reunión anual de altos ejecutivos extranjeros, académicos, ex formuladores de políticas y altos funcionarios chinos. La reunión de este año fue la primera que se celebra en forma presencial desde 2019, y dio a los observadores occidentales la oportunidad de conocer a las nuevas máximas autoridades chinas, entre ellas el nuevo premier Li Qiang.

El evento también dio a Li su primera oportunidad para interactuar con representantes extranjeros desde que asumió el cargo. A pesar de lo mucho que se ha hablado de la postura del presidente chino Xi Jinping de elegir a personas de su máxima confianza para los cargos más importantes del gobierno y del Partido Comunista de China, las conversaciones que mantuvimos en el evento nos permitieron hacernos una imagen más matizada de las políticas y estilos de liderazgo de Li y otros altos funcionarios chinos.…  Seguir leyendo »