A major war in the Indo-Pacific is probably more likely now than at any time since the Second World War.
The most probable spark is a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. President Xi Jinping of China has said unifying Taiwan with mainland China “must be achieved”. His Communist Party regime has become sufficiently strong — militarily, economically and industrially — to take Taiwan and directly challenge the United States for regional supremacy.
The United States has vital strategic interests at stake. A successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan would punch a hole in the U.S. and allied chain of defenses in the region, seriously undermining America’s strategic position in the Western Pacific, and would probably cut off U.S.… Seguir leyendo »
Es difícil imaginar una reunión más transcendental que la que los presidentes Biden y Xi acaban de mantener en los aledaños de la reunión del G-20 en Bali. La ausencia de Putin, sin duda, ha facilitado la redacción de un comunicado final en el que la mayoría de los miembros del G-20—aunque no todos— deploran la invasión de Ucrania por parte de Rusia y solicitan que las tropas rusas se retiren. En cambio, el resto —entre los que se encuentra China— declara de manera abierta no ver las cosas así, haciendo referencia expresa a las sanciones como problema. A pesar del comunicado, la guerra en Ucrania no parece haber sido el fondo del diálogo bilateral entre Biden y Xi, sino Taiwán.… Seguir leyendo »
Joe Biden made a potentially dangerous statement on Monday. In Tokyo, he gave a flat “yes” to a reporter’s question of whether he was willing to “get involved militarily to defend Taiwan”. “That’s the commitment we made”, the president claimed. In fact, the United States scrapped its formal commitment to defend Taiwan in 1979, replacing a treaty of alliance with the Taiwan Relations Act, which obligates the United States to help equip Taiwan to defend itself.
This is the third time in less than a year that Biden has publicly declared that the United States would use force to keep Beijing from seizing the island.… Seguir leyendo »
Since last Friday, the People’s Republic of China has launched a total of 155 warplanes – the most ever over four consecutive days – into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone; Ned Price said the state department was “very concerned”. There have been more than 500 such flights through nine months this year, as opposed to 300 all of last year.
Before war comes to the Indo-Pacific and Washington faces pressure to fight a potentially existential war, American policymakers must face the cold, hard reality that fighting China over Taiwan risks an almost-certain military defeat – and gambles we won’t stumble into a nuclear war.… Seguir leyendo »
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