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Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) addresses supporters during a rally on May 27, 2023.

The upcoming local elections in Turkey on March 31 offer Turkey’s progressives—the social democratic main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy (DEM) Party—the opportunity to challenge the hegemony of the ruling conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP). A win would also bolster the chances of Istanbul’s incumbent CHP mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, to succeed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan when his term expires in 2028, provided that they display a unity of purpose.

The outcome of the March 31 election in Istanbul, Turkey’s biggest city, will—as has been the case before—be decisive in shaping the course of Turkish politics.…  Seguir leyendo »

Hace una semana se celebró el Antalya Diplomacy Forum (ADF), cita obligada para quienes aspiran a entender la actualidad con foco en el Mediterráneo y Levante, y la trayectoria de esta sedimentación de culturas que se extiende desde el Mar Negro y el Bósforo a la costa de Anatolia. La "Perla del Mediterráneo" acogió este año a 4.700 participantes de 148 países -incluidos 19 Jefes de Estado o Gobierno y 64 Ministros- bajo el lema "Impulsar la diplomacia en tiempos de confusión" ("Advancing Diplomacy In Times of Turmoil"). Más allá de la exhibición de eficaz organización, el mensaje que resume el encuentro es la ambiciosa proyección de Türkiye en un mundo en transición de poder y de poderes.…  Seguir leyendo »

¿Turquía seguirá comprometida con la reforma económica?

Ocho meses después de un retorno sorpresivo a políticas económicas ortodoxas, las autoridades turcas siguen dando señales de su compromiso con una reforma. El Banco Central de la República de Turquía (CBRT) ha aumentado las tasas de interés 36,5 puntos porcentuales desde junio, mientras que el gobierno, a instancias del ministro de Finanzas, Mehmet Şimşek, ha ajustado la política fiscal, sobre todo incrementando los impuestos indirectos y ajustando los precios regulados.

Las autoridades, tanto fiscales como monetarias, han destacado en repetidas ocasiones el apoyo del presidente turco, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, a estos esfuerzos, en busca de calmar los temores de una abrupta reversión de las políticas.…  Seguir leyendo »

Perihan Koca (left) and Kezban Konukcu (right), members of the Turkish opposition People’s Equality and Democracy Party, hold signs reading "No to NATO, Occupation, War" during the voting on a bill regarding Sweden’s accession to NATO at the Grand National Assembly of Turkey in Ankara on Jan. 23. Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images

This week, Turkey’s parliament finally approved Sweden’s bid for NATO membership, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan swiftly ratified the measure.

Sweden’s NATO accession has dragged on for more than a year. While every other NATO member aside from Hungary supported Stockholm’s accession, Turkish leaders accused the Scandinavian country of harboring Kurdish terrorists. They demanded that Sweden tighten its anti-terrorism laws, extradite people accused of terrorist activities in Turkey, and resume arms sales to Turkey. The United States seems to have linked approval of Sweden’s NATO membership to future U.S. sales of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey.

As Sweden’s membership process stalled, analysts warned of the alliance’s decline and offered a range of proposed carrots and sticks to rein in Ankara.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian President Vladimir Putin meeting with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Sochi, Russia on Sept. 4, 2023. Sergei Guneyev/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Turkey and the United States have been treaty allies since Ankara joined the trans-Atlantic alliance in 1952 by formally becoming a member of NATO. Over the ensuing 70 years, Turkey’s bilateral relationship with the United States has been through its fair share of ups and downs. In the mid-1960s, the relationship was rocked by the secret U.S. deal with the Soviet Union to withdraw Jupiter missiles from Turkey during the Cuban missile crisis and former U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson’s letter threatening not to defend Turkey over Cyprus.

Later differences over Vietnam created an anti-American backlash in Turkish public opinion. In the mid-1970s, the Turkish invasion and occupation of Northern Cyprus led to a congressionally imposed arms embargo and subsequent limits on U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) shakes hands with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis (L) in Athens, Greece on December 07, 2023. (Photo by Mustafa Kamaci/Anadolu via Getty Images)

During his visit to Athens on 7 December, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hailed a new era of friendship with Athens and talked about turning the Aegean into a sea of peace. His counterpart, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, was similarly effusive and welcoming, emphasizing both sides’ shared historical responsibility to mend ties.

To outside observers, this language might come across as mere diplomatic niceties. However, context matters: only a few years ago the two countries were routinely exchanging threats, and an eruption of a conflict was seen as within the realm of possibility.

A thaw in Greco-Turkish relations is welcome news at a bilateral level, but also positive for Eastern Mediterranean security, which is currently defined by the Hamas–Israel war, unresolved conflicts in Syria and Libya, and a frozen crisis in Cyprus.…  Seguir leyendo »

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (4th right) attends the 44th Gulf Cooperation Council Summit in Doha, Qatar on December 05, 2023. (Photo by TUR Presidency / Murat Cetinmuhurdar / Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images)

On 4–5 December, Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Doha to attend the ninth meeting of the Turkey–Qatar Supreme Strategic Committee and the 44th Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit.

Erdogan’s attendance at the GCC summit in particular underscores the direction of Turkey’s regional policy of recent years and its approach to the Gaza war.

Indeed, Erdogan’s presence at the GCC meetings reflects the sea change in Turkey’s relations with the Arab–Gulf states, bearing in mind that Ankara was engaged in a fierce rivalry with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi only a few years ago.

Turkey’s presence at this summit also sheds light on its policy towards the Gaza war.…  Seguir leyendo »

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks at a press conference during the NATO summit in Madrid on June 30, 2022. Gabriel Bouys/AFP via Getty Images

Joining NATO was the best foreign-policy pursuit that Turkey ever initiated in its existence as a republic. During the Cold War, its membership in the alliance kept Turkey from being overrun by the Soviet Union and helped provide space for its economic development as a Western ally.

Why, then, is the alliance constantly having to grapple with an uncooperative and at times even pugilistic Turkish leader in President Recep Tayyip Erdogan? It seems that, in every instance, Erdogan is devoted to undermining the trans-Atlantic alliance. Is it time for NATO to reconsider Turkey’s membership?

It was not always like this. Turkish diplomats often like to remind their international counterparts that Turkey lives in a difficult neighborhood and the maintenance of its sovereignty is a testament to the skill of generations of Turkish statesmen who worked tirelessly to keep Ankara safe.…  Seguir leyendo »

A Greek navy ship enters the port of Kastellorizo, Greece. Turkey is visible in the background. © Diego Cupolo

The Aegean waters dividing Turkey and Greece have seen unusual calm for a year, a welcome turnaround after a long, threatening row over maritime sovereignty claims exacerbated by hydrocarbon finds in the eastern Mediterranean.

Now, Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Turkish Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan are to hold a summit in Athens on Dec. 7; it is the best chance since 2016 for the two NATO allies to improve relations and look into relaunching talks on the Aegean dispute.

Despite other disagreements over military build-ups in the region and over Cyprus, they should seize this rare opportunity, not least as their shared neighborhood’s fate – troubled by wars in Ukraine and Gaza – is ever more uncertain.…  Seguir leyendo »

President’s Take: Hot Spots Near and Far

The year 2023 has seen peace and security challenges both far from the EU’s borders and closer to home. The latter, especially, have heightened in recent weeks and months, which have seen fighting in the South Caucasus and Kosovo, even as a second year of war in Ukraine stretches on. While the three crises are very different in nature, all suggest a worrying inclination on the part of some governments to seek solutions to disputes through force of arms. Insofar as this jarring trend involves a proliferation of new wars, large and small, it flies in the face of the decades of energy that the EU has invested in turning the page on past conflagrations in Europe and its neighbourhood.…  Seguir leyendo »

Erdogan the Survivor

In July, during NATO’s annual summit in Vilnius, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan unexpectedly greenlit Sweden’s bid to join the alliance. This move provoked a degree of celebration and praise that individual leaders rarely get at a summit. U.S. President Joe Biden applauded Erdogan’s “courage, leadership, and diplomacy”. “This is a historic day”, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said.

Vilnius was a momentary break in a pattern of disheartening friction between Turkey and the West, and especially between Turkey and the United States. The U.S.-Turkish partnership now appears to be the most contentious relationship within the NATO alliance. Erdogan’s bid to block Sweden’s accession was, in part, retaliation against Washington after it punished Turkey for purchasing a Russian air defense system.…  Seguir leyendo »

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan in Vilnius, Lithuania, July 2023. Kacper Pempel / Reuters

No one campaigns quite like Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Months before Turkey’s May 2023 elections, Erdogan unveiled his campaign slogan, “The Century of Turkey”, in front of a live audience of thousands. The spectacle included an orchestra and a chorus performing a theme song that included a rapped verse:

I was a bird with a broken wing
I stayed silent for 100 years
But enough, enough, don’t be quiet
Live free, always free!

The refrain went, “Let the Century of Turkey start—not tomorrow, today!” To cap it all off, Erdogan delivered a typically bombastic speech. Describing some of his domestic policies—such as converting Istanbul’s iconic Byzantine church, the Hagia Sophia, into a mosque—as “challenging global hegemony”, Erdogan vowed to make Turkey “among the top ten [countries] in the world in politics, economy, technology, and diplomacy”.…  Seguir leyendo »

Erdogan vuelve del frío

Hace alrededor de un año, muy pocos apostaban al futuro político del Presidente turco Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Una persistente hiperinflación estaba haciendo estragos en la economía local y el país albergaba a millones de refugiados sirios sin perspectivas realistas de volver a su patria. Después vino el devastador terremoto de febrero último, que causó la muerte de decenas de miles de personas, abrumó por completo a las instituciones locales y puso al descubierto una corrupción endémica.

Más todavía, desde el golpe fallido de julio de 2016, Turquía se ha vuelto cada vez más autoritaria. No hay proyección alguna de solucionar la cuestión kurda y poner fin a la guerra contra el Partido de los Trabajadores de Kurdistán (PKK), y las leyes antiterroristas y un poder judicial complaciente han dado a Erdogan potentes instrumentos para suprimir cualquier tipo de oposición.…  Seguir leyendo »

Opposition supporters rallying ahead of Turkey’s presidential election, Istanbul, May 2023. Dilara Senkaya / Reuters

For Turkish democrats, last spring was supposed to be a moment of triumph. After more than two decades of increasingly autocratic rule, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, appeared poised to lose office. The country’s robust economic growth—Erdogan’s longtime claim to fame—had ended. The Turkish lira was in free fall, making basic goods unaffordable for much of the population. When a devastating earthquake in February 2023 killed tens of thousands of people, Erdogan failed to properly respond. Polls suggested that the presidential election in May would be close but that opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu would emerge victorious.

Alas, he did not. Bolstered by a pliant media that drowned out any bad news, Erdogan came in first during the election’s opening round and then comfortably defeated Kilicdaroglu in the runoff.…  Seguir leyendo »

Les négociateurs de la Conférence, avec au premier rang Lord Curzon, le ministre des Affaires étrangères brtannique; Benito Mussolini, président italien; et Raymond Poincaré, président français. Lausanne, 24 juillet 1923. — © STR / KEYSTONE

Le nom de Lausanne résonne dans les mémoires des peuples du Moyen-Orient de façon très contrastée. Pour les Turcs, le traité signé à Lausanne le 24 juillet 1923 sert de référence à l’existence d’une Turquie Nouvelle, victorieuse et souveraine d’un espace qui constitue aujourd’hui encore la République turque; sa formation et ses frontières ont été négociées à Lausanne, il y a un siècle. Depuis lors, son territoire a été stable, à part l’acquisition du sandjak d’Alexandrette (Iskenderun), cédé par la France en 1939, prélevé du territoire de la Syrie, sur laquelle elle exerçait un mandat de la Société des Nations depuis 1920.…  Seguir leyendo »

A Syrian child and others sheltered in a former carwash in Antakya, Turkey, in the days after the earthquake in February. Emily Garthwaite for The New York Times

It was the Syrians who were responsible for the earthquakes. That’s what a Turkish man told Seyfeddin Selim, a refugee from Homs, Syria, who used to sell groceries in Antakya, the capital of Hatay province in southern Turkey. When the earthquakes hit in February, Mr. Selim’s shop was cleared out by looters before he could get there.

The blame that followed added insult to injury, but it wasn’t anything new. Mr. Selim didn’t say anything to the man in his defense, he told me, because he was worried an altercation could get him deported. But when I spoke to him months later, the encounter still made him burn up inside.…  Seguir leyendo »

Toma de posesión del presidente turco Recep Tayyip Erdogan en Ankara el 3 junio de 2023. Foto: President.az (Wikimedia Commons / CC BY 4.0).

Tema

Este análisis se centra en el impacto internacional del proceso electoral celebrado en Turquía en mayo de 2023 y sus implicaciones para España.

Resumen

Recep Tayyip ha renovado su mandato presidencial tras las elecciones de 2023. La política exterior no fue el tema central de la campaña, pero se coló a través de otras agendas con una fuerte dimensión internacional como la inmigración. Una victoria opositora habría abierto posibilidades de cambios más sustantivos, pero sería un error tanto pensar que el cambio habría sido radical como que nada va a cambiar en los próximos cinco años. Turquía es un país influyente y un socio complicado, pero a menudo imprescindible.…  Seguir leyendo »

¿Una vuelta en U de la economía de Turquía?

A pesar de enfrentar su mayor desafío electoral en más de veinte años en el poder, el presidente turco, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, ganó otro mandato de cinco años en una votación en segunda vuelta en mayo, mientras que su Partido Justicia y Desarrollo (AKP) y sus aliados mantuvieron su mayoría parlamentaria. La contienda fue observada muy de cerca, en parte porque el resultado determinaría la dirección de la economía atribulada del país.

Cuando Erdoğan, que hizo campaña con la promesa de mantener bajas las tasas de interés, nombró a Mehmet Şimşek, un defensor ampliamente respetado de la ortodoxia económica, como ministro del Tesoro y de Finanzas, marcó un giro respecto de sus políticas insostenibles orientadas al crecimiento.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Woman in Charge of Saving Turkey’s Economy

When all hope is lost, hire a woman to take over (and take blame). Studies of the so-called glass cliff have found that companies are more likely to bring women on as chief executives or directors when business is bad. Linda Yaccarino, the new chief executive of the foundering Twitter, seems to fill the bill.

Now there’s Hafize Gaye Erkan, a former Wall Street banker who has been named the new central bank governor of Turkey. It’s the cliffiest of all glass cliffs. Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in a blog post last week that thanks to years of bad policies, Turkey faces “what appears to be an imminent financial crisis”.…  Seguir leyendo »

El 7 de mayo viajé a Estambul para calibrar la situación política en Turquía ante las elecciones del 16 de mayo que marcarían según los expertos un «zeitwende», punto de inflexión, con la casi segura derrota de Erdogan. Los resultados, entonces, 49,5 por ciento Erdogan y 44,8 por ciento Kilicdaroglu, ya hacían presagiar lo que ha ocurrido en la segunda vuelta: a Erdogan le sucede el propio Erdogan, y dado que el Parlamento está dominado por sus seguidores, vamos a un nuevo período autoritario del «reis» (jefe) al frente de Turquía. País que visité por primera vez en 1986 y que conozco bien, salvo la zona kurda fronteriza con Irán y Siria (18 por ciento de la población son kurdos).…  Seguir leyendo »