As the West debates diplomatic and military means to end the war in Ukraine, it cannot ignore the lessons of its own past mistakes. Some of the most serious date back to Russia’s war on Georgia in 2008, when, as the invaded country’s head of state, I was in a situation similar to that of Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president.
There are many voices across the world calling for a “freezing” of the conflict in Ukraine, which would allow Russia to hold on to part of the country. But the Georgian experience shows that such a policy of appeasement is nothing but a time-bomb, a stage of escalation.… Seguir leyendo »
“Tbilisi is filled with Russian refugees”, read the 18-year-old woman’s diary entry. Soon after it was posted on social media in Georgia, it went viral, summing up the popular mood.
What’s striking about these words is that they were written in 1920, by a writer whose diary is a record of an era of uncertainty and hope. The 1917 Bolshevik Revolution had finally given tiny Georgia a chance at independence from the Russian empire. It also turned it into a refuge for thousands of Russians.
“They are running from the Bolsheviks and they are all coming here”, wrote Maro Makashvili as the newly-born liberal Georgian democracy opened its doors to thousands of Russians fleeing the revolution and the civil war it triggered.… Seguir leyendo »
When Russia’s modern tsar escalated his war by announcing the partial mobilisation of reservists on 21 September, another wave of anxiety swept over Georgia. With due acknowledgment that every word written from this region at the moment should be about, or in support of, the Ukrainian people and their struggle, this anxiety is why I’m diverting to focus briefly on how we see this brutal war from Georgia, which, thanks to historical and geopolitical misfortune, happens to be a southern neighbour of Russia.
The invasion of Ukraine has revived painful collective and personal memories of Russia’s 2008 war on Georgia. The trauma from this not-so-distant past rose to the surface again in February and has remained there.… Seguir leyendo »
¿Qué representan la guerra en Ucrania y los conflictos recientes en el espacio post soviético?
Resumen
La reanudación de las hostilidades en Nagorno-Karabaj entre Armenia y Azerbaiyán y en la frontera de Kirguistán y Tayikistán, así como las tensiones continuas en los conflictos congelados de Transnistria (en Moldavia) y Osetia del Sur y Abjasia (en Georgia), han puesto de nuevo el foco sobre el espacio post soviético, planteando la cuestión de si la guerra en Ucrania es la causa de las hostilidades recientes y si podría tener un efecto dominó y crear más inestabilidad en la región.
La guerra en Ucrania no es la causa de las hostilidades, porque estas datan de mucho antes de aquella.… Seguir leyendo »
En menos de siete días tres Estados europeos han presentado su solicitud de adhesión a la Unión Europea. Entre el lunes 28 de febrero y el viernes 4 de marzo, Bruselas recibió sendas peticiones por parte de Ucrania, de Georgia y de Moldavia. Tres exrepúblicas soviéticas que, según la concepción geopolítica putiniana, habrían puesto en peligro la seguridad de Rusia con su acercamiento paulatino a Bruselas y, lo que es aún peor, a la órbita de la OTAN.
Desde Kiev los motivos para solicitar su adhesión al club de los 27 son más que evidentes: la invasión rusa y el consiguiente conflicto bélico.… Seguir leyendo »
Moscow’s disinformation tactics aimed to sow chaos, confusion, and panic both before and during the invasion of Ukraine – trying to paint a picture of Ukraine as the aggressor, conceal the civilian cost of the conflict, and even the dates of military operations.
Back in early January, US intelligence warned the Kremlin was planning a ‘false-flag operation’ as a precursor to the invasion, and Ukraine also suffered cyberattacks against government websites and banks, some of which have been attributed to the GRU – Russia’s military intelligence agency.
Ukraine is not alone in this, as Georgia has also been attempting to cope with a long-term information warfare storm from the Kremlin.… Seguir leyendo »
Since the Russian attack on Ukraine began on 24 February, popular support for the besieged country has been everywhere to be seen in the Georgian capital, Tbilisi. Ukrainian flags hang on balconies and windows in distant suburbs, as well as by the doors of cafés and shops on downtown avenues. Every evening, the city centre becomes a sea of yellow and blue as thousands gather to show solidarity with Ukraine.
For many Georgians, the war recalls the Russian invasion of their own country in 2008. Following that five-day conflict, Russia recognised two Georgian breakaway regions – Abkhazia and South Ossetia – and stationed its troops there.… Seguir leyendo »
Days before the hotly contested Ukrainian presidential election on March 31, incumbent Petro Poroshenko’s party faces credible allegations of voter bribery. It’s not hard to guess what will happen next. The oligarchic clique will steal the election, and in response, international observers will accuse local authorities of vote-rigging. But instead of addressing the symptoms of democratic backsliding, it’s time to treat the root cause: informal power.
Moldova offers a textbook example. Oil and banking tycoon Vladimir Plahotniuc bankrolls the country’s second-largest political force and has forged alliances with other parties to consolidate power. Although Plahotniuc exerts total control over parliament, law enforcement and the courts, he has no interest in running for office.… Seguir leyendo »
Tema: Los ministros de Asuntos Exteriores de la OTAN deben evaluar en su reunión de diciembre de 2008 si Georgia y Ucrania entran o no en el Plan de Acción para ser miembros de la OTAN.
Resumen: Los jefes de Estado y Gobierno de la OTAN, reunidos el pasado 3 de abril en Bucarest, encargaron a los ministros de Asuntos Exteriores que hiciesen una primera evaluación del progreso realizado por Georgia y Ucrania para unirse al Plan de Acción para el Ingreso (Membership Action Plan, MAP). La evaluación está siendo objeto de especial atención por los medios de comunicación a causa de la crisis en Georgia del pasado agosto y debido a las consecuencias que la decisión de los ministros pudiera tener en las relaciones OTAN-Rusia.… Seguir leyendo »
Cuando en 1982, con el voto favorable de la mayoría absoluta del Congreso de los Diputados, España entró en la OTAN, el PSOE, entonces anclado en el no a la Alianza, resumió las razones de su rechazo en un folletito -que hoy debe tener la categoría de incunable- titulado, si no recuerdo mal «50 razones en contra de la entrada de España en la OTAN». Una de las cincuenta razones argumentaba, y cito de memoria, que la entrada de España en la Organización atlántica rompería el equilibrio geoestratégico europeo al aumentar el número de miembros de la alianza occidental mientras permanecía invariable el del Pacto de Varsovia.… Seguir leyendo »
By Ana Palacio and Daniel Twining, the former foreign minister of Spain and an Oxford-based consultant to the German Marshall Fund of the United States, respectively. (THE WASHINGTON POST, 11/03/06):
Since 2003, democratic revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia have dealt strategic blows to the ambition of Russia's leaders to reconstitute the former Soviet empire by retaining political and military suzerainty over their weaker neighbors. But Russia's imperial pretensions along its periphery linger.
Calls from the elected presidents of Georgia and Ukraine for a united Europe stretching "from the Atlantic to the Caspian" should embolden Europe and the United States to help people aspiring to freedom in other post-Soviet states end Russia's continuing dominion over them by rolling back the corrupting influence of Russian power in regions beyond its borders.… Seguir leyendo »
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