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Abdoulaye Bathily (C), UN Special Representative for Libya and Head of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), arrives for an election simulation meeting in Tripoli on 5 November 2022. Photo by MAHMUD TURKIA/AFP via Getty Images.

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Abdoulaye Bathily was appointed UN Special Representative to Libya in September, the eighth UN representative to attempt to negotiate a way out of Libya’s governance crisis since 2011. He faces steep challenges. The political situation in Libya remains at an impasse, with the re-emergence of rival governments and heightening factionalism. Internationally, Bathily inherits a UN mission that has been subject to significant turnover and capacity challenges, a deeply divided Security Council, and various agendas put forward by interested states.

‘There appears to be broad agreement that Libya’s institutions are facing a serious legitimacy crisis’, Bathily told the UN Security Council on 15 November.…  Seguir leyendo »

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The progress Libya made toward stability in 2021 has all but vanished. Then, an interim leader unified two competing cabinets, and rival factions agreed to schedule parliamentary and presidential elections that would eventually lead to the formation of a new elected government. But the elections were cancelled at the last minute and now the country is once again stuck in a standoff between two rival executives, one based in the western city of Tripoli and the other currently operating from the coastal city of Sirt in central Libya, with no consensus on the way forward.

The feud has not relapsed into an outright conflict, as thus far both camps and their respective foreign sponsors (some of whom have recently achieved their own rapprochements) appear reluctant to resume fighting.…  Seguir leyendo »

Vehicles of forces loyal to Libya's Tripoli-based Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah are parked along the waterfront in the capital on 17 May 2022, hours after forces of the rival Tobruk-based government withdrew. Photo: MAHMUD TURKIA/AFP via Getty Images.

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The failure to hold scheduled elections in December 2021 derailed Libya’s political roadmap, heightening animosity between the Government of National Unity (GNU) – the country’s first unified government since 2014 – and the House of Representatives, its chronically divided parliament. The House of Representatives appointed a new government in February, the Government of National Stability (GNS), and says that the GNU must go. The GNU, however, says it will only leave following elections.

This impasse has dragged on, but reached a flash point on the evening of 16 May, as the designated prime minister of the GNS, Fathi Bashagha, entered Tripoli in an attempt to assume office and operate from the capital.…  Seguir leyendo »

Libya's security forces parade at the Martyrs' Square in the capital Tripoli on February 17, 2022, as Libyans commemorate the 11th anniversary of the uprising that toppled longtime strongman Muammar Kadhafi. Mahmud Turkia / AFP

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Libya is at a perilous crossroads – again. On 1 March, the country’s Tobruk-based parliament, the House of Representatives, voted to endorse a new interim government headed by former Interior Minister Fathi Bashagha, giving it the greenlight to take over from the sitting prime minister, Abdulhamid Dabaiba. The vote’s proponents insist that the procedure was sound, but factions in the capital Tripoli say it was fraudulent. The latter reject the new cabinet and oppose appointing a new executive entirely. As the camps square off, omens of renewed fighting are visible for the first time since an October 2020 ceasefire ended six years of political feuds and intermittent conflict.…  Seguir leyendo »

Que la próxima elección en Libia valga la pena

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El 24 de diciembre los libios irán a las urnas para la primera ronda de una elección presidencial que se gesta desde hace años. La votación llega después de décadas de dictadura, guerra civil y, más recientemente, un período de incertidumbre exasperante. Pero para que los resultados gocen de amplia aceptación, los votantes tienen que poder tomar una decisión informada en el cuarto oscuro.

Es posible que eso no ocurra: el calendario electoral comprimido ofrece poco tiempo a los libios para conocer a los más de 70 candidatos. El período de campaña se redujo a dos semanas por la presencia de fuerzas extranjeras en el país y temor a que vuelva el conflicto.…  Seguir leyendo »

Migrantes rescatados en el Mediterráneo a bordo del Geo Barents.Ed Ou (The Outlaw Ocean Project)

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En julio de 2018, el Asso 28, un barco de suministro de petróleo italiano que cruzaba el Mediterráneo, se encontró con una balsa de goma que llevaba un centenar de migrantes desesperados. En su intento de realizar el peligroso viaje desde Libia hasta Europa, los migrantes habían llegado a aguas internacionales cuando el buque los rescató, y su capitán optó por llevarlos no a un puerto seguro en Europa, como requiere la legislación, sino de vuelta a un gulag de centros de detención de migrantes en Libia, donde Naciones Unidas y otras entidades han documentado torturas sistemáticas, violaciones, extorsiones, trabajo forzado y muertes.…  Seguir leyendo »

Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, left, son of the former Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi, registers to run in upcoming presidential elections in Sebha, south of Tripoli, Libya. (Libyan Electoral Commission Handout/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock)

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Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi, son of the late Libyan dictator Moammar Gaddafi, registered on Sunday as a presidential candidate for Libya’s elections scheduled for Dec. 24, complicating an already precarious situation. These elections were originally designed to complete a post-conflict transition that began a year ago, when a U.N.-picked body of 75 Libyan political figures set the December date.

This year, as a key prerequisite for the vote, that body formed a new Government of National Unity — an interim executive designed to unify the country’s then-two rival administrations. Since then, an international consensus has emerged that Libya’s elections should take place.…  Seguir leyendo »

A UN official shows the ballot box to participants of the UN-hosted Libyan Political Dialogue Forum in Geneva, 5 February 2021. UNSMIL

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Against All Odds, Libya’s Peace Process Makes Substantial Progress

On 5 February, Libyan delegates attending UN-hosted political talks in Geneva nominated a new unified interim executive for their country, which has been split in two regions, each administered separately, since 2014. They chose eastern Libya’s Mohamed Mnefi to head a new three-person Presidency Council and a businessman from Misrata in western Libya, Abdulhamid Dabaiba, as prime minister-designate. If confirmed, this executive would serve until elections in late 2021. The Mnefi-Dabaiba list won by a slim majority in a race with other heavyweights including the eastern parliament’s speaker, Aghela Saleh, and the Tripoli government’s interior minister, Fathi Bashaga.…  Seguir leyendo »

President of Libya's interim government Mohammad Younes Menfi (L) meets warlord Khalifa Haftar (R) in Benghazi, Libya on 11 February 2021. Photo by Khalifa Haftar Forces Press Office/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images.

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On 5 February, the UN-assembled Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) appointed a new interim government. Intended to see the country through until elections scheduled for 24 December 2021, the appointment of the Government of National Unity (GNU) ostensibly breaks the political deadlock of the past five years. But what can the GNU achieve? And how should the international community respond?

A limited mandate and low expectations

February 2021 conjures images of the same period in 2016, when the unity government produced by UN-mediated talks, the Government of National Accord (GNA), was unable to overcome the institutional divides that had emerged in 2014. …  Seguir leyendo »

Participants attend the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum in Tunis, on 9 November 2020. REUTERS / Zoubeir Souissi

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Fragile Progress toward a Unity Government for Libya

Despite a reported breakthrough in mid-January, there are still many steps to take before an interim unity government can emerge in Libya. The country has been divided in two, between two parallel governments and military coalitions that have been intermittently at war, since 2014. Participants in the 75-member forum that the UN assembled to bring the two back together agreed on an internal voting mechanism for appointing top officials. But the complicated voting process could easily trigger further disputes. Moreover, rival Libyan factions disagree on who should lead the country and are only paying lip service to transparency in voting.…  Seguir leyendo »

Libyan military graduates loyal to the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) take part in a parade marking their graduation, a result of a military training agreement with Turkey, at the Omar Mukhtar camp on 21 November 2020. Mahmud TURKIA / AFP

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Foreign Actors Drive Military Build-up amid Deadlocked Political Talks

A tenuous ceasefire continues to hold in Libya between forces allied to the Tripoli-based government and their rivals in the east. Yet there is reason to worry that the five-month hiatus in the conflict could end abruptly. The 23 October ceasefire agreement silenced the guns but otherwise is a dead letter: both sides have backtracked on fulfilling its terms and instead continue to build up their military forces. Another concern is the failure to find a political way forward. The UN’s attempt to revive dialogue and appoint a new Presidency Council and prime minister to head a unity government has floundered.…  Seguir leyendo »

UN acting envoy to Libya Stephanie Williams speaks at the opening of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum hosted in Gammarth on the outskirts of the Tunisian capital, with the attendance of Tunisian President Kais Saied (C), on 9 November 2020. FETHI BELAID / AFP

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Negotiations Run Aground, Threatening Political and Economic Stalemate

A fragile ceasefire signed in October is holding in Libya, and thus far renewed conflict has been averted. But tensions remain high, especially as the year is about to end with no substantial progress in political and economic negotiations that were supposed to pave the way for reunifying a country that has been divided in two, with rival governments and parallel financial and military institutions, since 2014. UN-mediated talks to appoint a unity government are faltering, as delegates have so far failed to agree on how to choose candidates for senior positions. A temporary deal on oil revenues in September enabled the resumption of production and exports and helped de-escalate military tensions in central Libya.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Wart for Libyan Oil. Illustration by Greg Groesch/The Washington Times

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At the dawn of the 20th century, America was feeling brash and bold. Having just defeated Spain in a war that ranged from Cuba to the Philippines, it was clear that we were an emerging power. But what was that going to mean?

The 19th century idea of “Manifest Destiny,” which required that, by some sort of divine right, we should rule the Western Hemisphere had faded, but — as the Philippines showed — the temptation of American colonialism was strong.

In that context, John Hay wrote a letter to a friend. Hay began his government career as private secretary to Abraham Lincoln and at the time he wrote the letter was U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

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It’s a “scandal”, according to U.N. Secretary General António Guterres. Many more say it’s a mess. It’s also a critical battlefield for the future of the Arab world, according to engaged capitals.

It’s Libya.

The 2011 international military intervention in Libya was about being on the right side of history, just as the Arab Spring was supposed to bring a new and bright democratic future to the entire region. The Paris of Nicolas Sarkozy, followed by the London of David Cameron, was enthusiastically charging full speed ahead, while the Washington of Barack Obama was relunctantly “leading from behind”. And after half a year of bombing, the bizarre 42-year rule of Col.…  Seguir leyendo »

La doble tragedia de Libia

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La situación de Libia, un país rico en petróleo y segmentado tribalmente, se asemeja a la de otros países devastados por la guerra en el Gran Oriente Medio, entre ellos Afganistán, Siria y Yemen. En cada caso, una combinación de luchas internas y de intervención externa desacertada ha sostenido un conflicto que viene de largo.

Al recordar las invasiones lideradas por Estados Unidos de Afganistán (2001) e Irak (2003) en su memoria de 2014 Duty, el ex secretario de Defensa Robert Gates sostenía que Estados Unidos era bueno a la hora de derrocar un régimen, pero que no tenía ni idea de lo que debería ocupar su lugar.…  Seguir leyendo »

Forces loyal to Libya's U.N.-recognized Government of National Accord parade a Pantsir air defense system truck in Tripoli on Wednesday after capturing it at from forces loyal to Libya's eastern-based strongman Khalifa Hifter. (Mahmud Turkia/AFP/Getty Images)

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Last month, Field Marshall Khalifa Hifter, commander of the Libyan Arab Armed Forces (LAAF), surprised Libyans on the eve of Ramadan with an address calling on them to reject “all the institutions” established by the 2015 Libyan Political Agreement (LPA).

Four days later he claimed a mandate for military rule. But this has yet to transpire, with Hifter forced into negotiations with civilian counterparts. As his military fortunes have also taken a significant setback, Hifter is now on the defensive on all fronts. The coming weeks may be decisive for his ambitions.

Libya’s government dysfunction continues

The LPA, signed under the auspices of the United Nations in 2015, paved the way for the formation of a unity “Government of National Accord” (GNA) and sought to accommodate rival factions by maintaining the eastern-based House of Representatives as the parliament and the Tripoli-based remnants of the previous parliament as a consultative body.…  Seguir leyendo »

Posters of Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar line the streets of the eastern Libyan city of al-Bayda, where the (unrecognised) interim government in located, November 2018. CRISISGROUP

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In a short televised speech late on 27 April, Khalifa Haftar declared that he accepted the people’s “mandate” to scrap the 2015 UN-mediated Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) and empower the General Command of the Arab Libyan Armed Forces (ALAF), the military force he heads, to take charge of the country’s governing institutions.

The LPA gives international recognition to the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord, against which Haftar has waged a deadly war since April 2019. While neither Haftar nor the allied Tobruk-based House of Representatives and its government has recognised the LPA, they have accepted it as the basis for negotiations.…  Seguir leyendo »

Libyan Army soldiers wear masks to protect themselves from the coronavirus during a military operation in Tripoli, on March 25. Credit Amru Salahuddien/Anadolu Agency, via Getty Images

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On a recent visit to Libya, I met a family living in an improvised shelter in a displaced persons camp east of Tripoli. One of the tens of thousands Libyan families uprooted by war, the family of seven was living in a room barely 20 paces long and half as wide. A clothesline, a pile of mattresses, a hot plate and the stench of body odor filled the room. Outside, they faced a shortage of potable water and abusive taunts from locals.

The spread of the novel coronavirus will have a devastating effect on the Middle East’s communities of refugees and migrants.…  Seguir leyendo »

Syria’s foreign minister, Walid al-Moallem, meets Libya’s eastern government deputy prime minister, Abdul Rahman al-Ahiresh. Photograph: SANA

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The most recent ally of Khalifa Haftar, the general who has been attacking the Libyan capital Tripoli since April last year, is Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.

This union was formalised last week with the opening of a “Libyan embassy” in Damascus. The alarming partnership has been forged almost completely without comment. What happens with Libya no longer seems to concern anyone. It’s as though the whole conflict has ceased to exist.

Libya is not the Middle East’s forgotten war, it is the ignored war. Having burned for almost five years now, the country has almost entirely collapsed, a situation which minimal political will could have prevented.…  Seguir leyendo »

¿Qué está en juego en Libia?

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La actual guerra en Libia es un microcosmos de la tragedia que ha atrapado a muchos países del Medio Oriente. De no resolverse pronto, la lucha en Libia podría sembrar inestabilidad entre los países vecinos, como Túnez y Egipto, y disparar la huida de más oleadas de refugiados hacia Europa.

La crisis libia tiene sus orígenes en una guerra civil entre varios grupos divididos por lealtades tribales y regionales, así como sus creencias ideológicas. Todos se disputan el control de los ingresos que genera el petróleo para el país. Sin embargo, al momento son básicamente dos los frentes del conflicto: el Gobierno de Acuerdo Nacional (Government of National Accord, GNA), reconocido internacionalmente y dominado por islamistas, que aún controla la capital, Trípoli; y la Cámara de Representantes (con sede en Tobruk) junto con el Ejército Nacional Libio (Libyan National Army, LNA), bajo el mando del mariscal de campo Jalifa Hafter.…  Seguir leyendo »