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With reports that violence in Ukraine is spreading beyond separatist-controlled areas, it is clear the so-called Minsk-II ceasefire between the Ukrainian government and pro-Russian rebels in the Donbas is teetering.

If the United States wants to avoid the prospect of the violence spilling over into a broader conflict, it will need to keep the option of more direct involvement -- including the provision of arms -- firmly on the table.

Until recently, the White House has understandably been focused on countering the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, a reality that allowed the Europeans (especially Germany) to take the lead in crafting a response to Russia's aggression.…  Seguir leyendo »

Members of the separatist self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic army collect parts of a destroyed Ukrainian army tank in Vuhlehirsk, about 10 km (6 miles) west of Debaltseve, February 16, 2015. REUTERS/Baz Ratner

The Feb. 12 Minsk II Ukrainian ceasefire agreement brokered by German Chancellor Angela Merkel is a fragile arrangement. Most analysts hold modest expectations. The past few days are proving them right.

Separatist and Russian forces have continued their attack on Ukrainian forces at Debaltseve, despite the ceasefire that supposedly took effect on Saturday. Separatist leaders assert the ceasefire does not apply there, while Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman claims that Moscow is not part of the conflict or the agreement.

President Barack Obama and other Western leaders continue to hope that the ceasefire will take hold. But if Minsk II unravels, as did the first Minsk ceasefire of last September, pressure will likely grow on the White House to provide greater military assistance — including defensive arms — to Ukraine.…  Seguir leyendo »

A Ukrainian serviceman patrols the area as people stand in line to receive humanitarian aid near a delivery point in the government forces-controlled town of Debaltseve, Donetsk region, Feb. 6, 2015. REUTERS/Maxim

The battle for east Ukraine is getting nastier by the day. Pro-Russian rebels, believed to be reinforced by Russian troops, are successfully pushing back against the Ukrainian army in an attempt to take over strategic transport and energy hubs, like Debaltseve and Mariupol, for the sake of making their self-proclaimed state more sustainable.

Hundreds of thousands of civilians along the eastern Ukraine frontline have been affected by the brutal fighting. The death toll is rising rapidly: over 5,000 people have died in Ukraine since the fighting started in Spring 2014. Ukraine says 9,000 Russian troops are inside the country, 50,000 more are on the border and ready to enter anytime.…  Seguir leyendo »

The fighting in Ukraine may be escalating, but hopes of a decisive breakthrough in talks and a clear and coordinated Western response -- hopes raised by German Chancellor Angela Merkel's visit to Washington on Monday -- have been dashed, at least for now.

Intensifying clashes in eastern Ukraine following a new Russian-backed separatist offensive on January 13 have fueled debate over how the United States and others should respond to the uptick in violence, including growing talk of the U.S. sending weapons. Just last week, a report by prominent former diplomats and highly respected members of the U.S. national security establishment argued for a drastic increase in U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

Ukrainian Army soldiers at a weapons training exercise in western Ukraine last week. Credit Pavlo Palamarchuk/Associated Press

The Ukraine crisis is almost a year old and Russia is winning. The separatists in eastern Ukraine are gaining ground and Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, shows no signs of backing down in the face of Western economic sanctions.

Unsurprisingly, a growing chorus of voices in the United States is calling for arming Ukraine. A recent report from three leading American think tanks endorses sending Kiev advanced weaponry, and the White House’s nominee for secretary of defense, Ashton B. Carter, said last week to the Senate armed services committee, “I very much incline in that direction.”

They are wrong. Going down that road would be a huge mistake for the United States, NATO and Ukraine itself.…  Seguir leyendo »

CNN Pentagon Correspondent Barbara Starr reported Thursday that the U.S. intelligence community has information that Russian artillery is firing into eastern Ukraine. The artillery pieces shown in the released footage are Russian M-46 130mm field guns with a range of a little over 16 miles.

Why would the Russians do this? Simple -- this fits into their plan to support pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine. The end game? I believe it is the eventual absorption of that region into the Russian Federation.

The area in red on the map is where much of the fighting between the Ukrainian government and the pro-Russian rebels has been occurring over the last month.…  Seguir leyendo »