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The plenary session of Iraq's new parliament in Baghdad, held three months after the October 2021 parliamentary elections. Photo by Iraqi Parliament Press Office/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images.

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Iraq’s newly-elected MPs recently gathered for the first time, three months after an election in which an alternative new generation of independents and protest parties won dozens of seats in parliament. This new cohort have the potential to gradually reform the political system, but must work towards forging a unified strategy if they are to effect change.

Early statements from some of these ‘alternative MPs’, who combined represent more than 70 seats, indicated a desire to form a unified coalition, but such an alliance has been difficult to forge.

Even before the October 2021 elections, divisions in tactics emerged amongst disillusioned Iraqis who had taken part in popular protests in 2019-20.…  Seguir leyendo »

Iraqis arrive to cast their vote at a polling station in Baghdad during the 2021 general election. Photo by Murtadha Al-Sudani/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images.

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Several big stories came out of Iraq’s sixth election since the 2003 US-led invasion. The first is low voter turnout which officially at 36 per cent of eligible voters is the lowest recorded in the country’s post-2003 electoral history. With many Iraqis disillusioned with a political system which entrenches a corrupt political elite at their expense, this was expected, reflecting a trajectory of fewer Iraqis voting in each election.

More surprising is the relative success of Muqtada al-Sadr’s movement, which increased its seat tally from 54 in 2018 to 73 according to preliminary results, while its main rival from the previous election Fateh – which represents the Popular Mobilization Forces – saw a decrease from 48 to only 16.…  Seguir leyendo »

An Iraqi independent candidate prepares to hang his own electoral poster in the Najaf. Photo by ALI NAJAFI/AFP via Getty Images.

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On October 10, Iraqis head to the polls in their country’s sixth election since regime change in 2003. Despite the promises of democracy, many Iraqis have become disillusioned with their political system, which deprives them of basic services and fundamental standards of living.

Many disillusioned Iraqis tried to bring about change through protests in October 2019. They believed their voice could be heard louder through mass demonstrations, instead of elections that only reinforced their corrupt political system.

Their demands were to put an end to the political elite’s institutionalized corruption, and many asked for a change in government through early elections in a safe and fair atmosphere.…  Seguir leyendo »

Tishreen protester holds an Iraqi flag in Tayaran Square. Baghdad, 19 January 2020. PHOTOGRAPHER/Ali Dab Dab

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What’s at stake in Iraq’s elections on 10 October? 

These elections are the first test of Iraq’s political institutions since countrywide protests paralysed the country in 2019-2020. Those protests forced the government elected in 2018 to step down and pass a new elections law, which brought the polls originally planned for 2022 forward by six months. The so-called Tishreen (October) protests were a serious warning that the ruling parties and political system face a growing legitimacy crisis. If the balloting unfolds in a free and fair manner, without major violence, it may restore a degree of confidence in electoral democracy. Ideally, the vote would produce a new government empowered to tackle the country’s enormous socio-economic challenges head on, but that outcome is unlikely.…  Seguir leyendo »

An Iraqi man registers to obtain his voting cards ahead of the parliamentary elections, in Najaf, September 2021. Photo by Ali NAJAFI / AFP) (Photo by ALI NAJAFI/AFP via Getty Images.

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For many Western and Iraqi policymakers, parliamentary elections are essential to Iraq’s fledgling but critical transition to democracy. But in Iraq’s first free election in 2005, turnout was almost 80 per cent. Since then, the figure has declined.

In the most recent elections in 2018, the official turnout was 44 per cent of registered voters, though most observers and even some officials acknowledge it was probably much lower, possibly less than 30 per cent. Iraqis do not feel that elections represent a channel for their voices or an instrument for change.

To express their despair, protesters in October 2019 began sitting in city squares in Baghdad and in the south.…  Seguir leyendo »

Iraqi PM-designate Mustafa al-Kadhimi who is at the parliament for vote of confidence in Baghdad, Iraq makes a speech on May 06, 2020. Anadolu Agency via AFP

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On 6 May, after five months and two earlier failed attempts, Iraq’s parliament confirmed the – still incomplete – government of the new prime minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi. The country had been without a functioning government since the resignation of Adil Abdul-Mahdi in late November 2019 following weeks-long mass protests against the ruling elite. Just like his predecessor, Kadhimi will preside over a broad coalition government that must cater to the interests of nearly all the country’s major political forces. He will be highly constrained in his ability to initiate long-overdue reforms, but having so many constituencies to satisfy may help preserve the precarious balance between the U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

A member of the Kurdish Peshmerga forces casts his vote at a polling station in Sulaimaniyah, Iraqi Kurdistan, on 28 September 2018. Shwan Mohammed/AFP

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What’s at stake in the 30 September elections?

Voters in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq will choose the 111 members of the Kurdistan National Assembly, in the fourth election since the body was founded in 1992 and the first since the Kurdish independence referendum on 25 September 2017. At stake, as usual, is the equilibrium between Iraqi Kurdistan’s dominant political parties – the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). This time, however, the fate of the PUK also hangs in the balance, as it faces a challenge from opposition rivals, the Gorran and New Generation movements.

At issue is also the relationship of the Kurdish region’s institutions – the Assembly, the judiciary and the executive, including the presidency – to the KDP and PUK.…  Seguir leyendo »

In this May 14 photo, supporters of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr carry his image as they celebrate in Baghdad’s Tahrir Square. (Hadi Mizban/Associated Press)

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On May 12, Iraq held parliamentary elections in which a coalition of the Islamist Sadrist movement, led by Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, and the Iraqi Communist Party (ICP) secured more seats than any other alliance. It was a shocking victory that left the party of incumbent Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi — the pre-election favorite — trailing in third place.

The Sadrist-ICP electoral pact seemed to mark a transformation in Iraqi politics as two previously antagonistic groups aligned behind a single political vision. But why do such shifts continue to take analysts by surprise? When dealing with Iraq, a focus on political elites and sectarianism has produced an image of a society incapable of collective action against the political class.…  Seguir leyendo »

A volunteer points out the place where a displaced woman from Sinjar can cast her vote in the parliamentary elections at a polling site in a camp for displaced people outside Irbil, Iraq, on May 12. (Bram Janssen/AP)

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On May 12, Iraq held a remarkably successful and violence-free national election. A coalition of Shiite Islamists and communists led by Moqtada al-Sadr, running on a reform agenda, won the largest number of seats in the new parliament. Sitting Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s coalition placed third.

While the results have generated considerable optimism, allegations of widespread electoral fraud have also emerged in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region and Kirkuk. There have been numerous calls to address and investigate these claims, including from the U.N. Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI).

In these areas, results favored two long-dominant parties, the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK).…  Seguir leyendo »

Iraqis in Mosul waited to vote on May 12 next to a building in ruins from the battle to oust Islamic State militants from their city. (Maya Alleruzzo/AP)

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On May 12, Iraq held its fourth national elections since 2003. More than 10 million people turned up at polling stations. Men and women alike voted freely — a rarity in the Middle East, and something that Iraqis can be proud of. Despite a lower turnout than was expected, voters leaned toward cross-sectarian lists rather than the ethnic or sect-based groupings that dominated previous elections.

I myself campaigned in all 18 provinces, and our coalition won seats in 14 of those, something no other list was able to achieve. While there are irregularities that need to be addressed by the Independent High Electoral Commission, I have called on all sides to respect the final results and address any complaints through due legal process.…  Seguir leyendo »

A Muqtada al-Sadr mobile phone cover for sale in a Baghdad market. Photo: Getty Images.

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Iraqis and outside observers alike are still making sense of the surprise results of last weekend’s elections, the country’s first since the violent rise and fall of the Islamic State. In the biggest shock, the populist Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s political coalition—a nationalist, non-sectarian alliance between his political movement, secular activists and the Iraqi Communist Party, known as Sairoon—won the most seats in parliament. Trailing just a few seats behind were the pre-election favorite, the Nasr Alliance of incumbent Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, and the Fateh Alliance led by Hadi al-Ameri, whose list represents a majority of paramilitary groups associated with the mainly Shiite Popular Mobilization Units.…  Seguir leyendo »

Followers of the Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr celebrating their success in Iraqi elections in Baghdad. Credit Hadi Mizban/Associated Press

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Moktada al-Sadr, the maverick Shiite cleric, who contested the Iraqi elections on an inclusive, nonsectarian list with Communists, independents and liberal civil society groups, has emerged as the winner.

Mr. Sadr’s electoral list, “Sairoon” in Arabic, or “On The Move”, garnered the largest number of votes, although 56 percent of Iraq’s voters stayed away from the polling booths. During the campaign, Mr. Sadr promised to fight corruption, work across sectarian lines and bring in technocrats to run the government.

Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s list didn’t secure the top place in the elections. Baghdad did not vote for Mr. Abadi, but his electoral list gained support in Mosul, the city most devastated by the Islamic State and liberated under his leadership.…  Seguir leyendo »

Iraqi supporters of Sairun list celebrate with Iraqi flags and a picture of Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr after results of Iraq's parliamentary election were announced, in Najaf, Iraq 15 May, 2018. REUTERS/Alaa al-Marjani

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At first blush, what do these preliminary results amount to? Any surprises? Any dramatic change in the way Iraq will be governed?

There is less surprise in the victory of a component of the Shiite Islamist political firmament than in the nature of that component: the Sadrists, long demonised in the West and not particularly liked in Tehran. They won in alliance with the Communists, also vilified by the West and Iran alike, but in a much earlier era. But the antipathy of external powers is not all the Sadrists, followers of the populist cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, and the Communists have in common.…  Seguir leyendo »

An Iraqi woman prepares to cast her vote in the country’s parliamentary elections in Baghdad on Saturday. (Khalid Mohammed/AP)

MundoOriente Próximo,

Preliminary results for Iraq’s recent round of elections are in, and keeping with previous years, there are many surprises. Contradicting most polling data and analysts’ predictions, incumbent Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s alliance came in third, after Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr’s alliance with the Iraqi Communist Party and the Fatah Alliance led by Hadi al-Amiri, a paramilitary leader close to Iran.

Dissecting these results, we can see how voters are increasingly disillusioned with Iraq’s dysfunctional politics and the status quo. However, the elections also illuminate the flaws in the electoral system and the unwieldy government formation process. Without significant modifications to these institutions, there is little reason to expect any major changes in the coming period.…  Seguir leyendo »

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The third Iraqi elections since the end of the US occupation are scheduled for May 12th. These arrive in a context of slow but progressive recovery of Iraq and its institutions. The Islamic State (IS) military defeat in December 2017 and the relatively non-violent and effective response of the federal authorities to the Kurdish independence referendum held in September 2017 are remarkable achievements for the Iraqi state and its prime minister, Haider al-Abadi. Nonetheless, analysts and policymakers describe the timing and impact of the May 12th vote in diverging ways. The more optimistic portray the upcoming elections as a turning point that will reinforce current positive trends and close one of the darkest chapters of Iraq’s recent history.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr at a demonstration in April against the bombings of Syria by Britain, France and the United States. Credit Haidar Hamdani/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

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Iraq’s parliamentary elections on May 12 might seem to offer more of the same because most of the leading candidates and movements have dominated the country’s political life since the United States unseated Saddam Hussein in 2003. But the 44-year-old firebrand Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr is leading an encouraging transformation, which could jar Iraq’s politicians out of their sectarian rut.

Mr. Sadr inherited millions of devoted followers from his family of revered religious scholars. Both his father and father-in-law were grand ayatollahs, the highest clerical level of Shiite Islam. He cemented his status by leading a bloody resistance against the American occupation and fighting the United States-allied government in Baghdad.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Today’s parliamentary elections in Iraq are the country’s first since the Islamic State was militarily defeated in December, and there are hopes Iraq will turn a new chapter and move forward in its attempts to remedy challenges to its security, endemic corruption and the polarization within its society and political elites.

There are few certainties in an election in which close to 7,000 candidates are running for just 329 seats — in a country where the political landscape has become increasingly fragmented. One near-certain outcome is the political ascendancy of Iraq’s Shiite militias, the most dominant of which lead the Popular Mobilization Force (PMF) and have extensive ties to Iran.…  Seguir leyendo »

People cast their ballots at a voting station on Sept. 25 in Kirkuk, Iraq. (Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

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Iraqis head to the polls on May 12 to vote for their next federal government. This will be the first time they vote since the territorial rise and fall of the Islamic State. It is also the first vote since a widespread protest movement started in 2015, calling for the removal of the current ruling elite and major reforms to the political system governing Iraq since 2003.

This vote, and the subsequent government-formation process, will determine Iraq’s political future. Despite a number of polls, it is impossible to tell who will become the next prime minister. Yet, pre-election maneuverings and strategies offer glimpses into the country’s political trajectory and the prospects of stabilization and rebuilding.…  Seguir leyendo »

Iraqi women give victory signs while showing their inked fingers after voting in Baghdad on Wednesday.

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As Iraqis cast their ballots for the first parliamentary elections since U.S. troops withdrew from the country at the end of 2011, they agree on one thing: the fierce urgency of change. Although the vote is an important milestone in Iraq's fragile state, it is unlikely to resolve the country's severe political crisis and generate a new social contract and a constitution that enshrine equal citizenship before the rule of law.

At the heart of Iraq's structural crisis lies a dysfunctional political system based on muhasasa or distribution of power along communal, ethnic and tribal lines, a system put in place after the U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Millions of Iraqis risked their lives in March to exercise their fundamental democratic right to vote. Turnout was high -- exceeding 60 percent -- across the regions, ethnicities and sects that form our diverse nation. Iraqis are eager to put violence and strife behind them. Yet three months later, Iraq has no functional or stable government. This uncertainty threatens not just Iraqi society and democracy but also the region.

Our political alliance, Iraqiya, won the most votes and parliamentary seats in March. Iraqis from all sides and walks of life responded to our platform of democratic inclusion of all groups in the political process; of national reconciliation based on secularism and moving away from political, ethnic and sectarian religious divides; of law and order to create the conditions for a stable and prosperous nation, in harmony with its neighbors.…  Seguir leyendo »