¿Es posible que China ataque a Taiwán en 2027? Eso creía en 2021 el jefe saliente del Comando de EE. UU. del Indo-Pacífico, Philip Davidson, quien recientemente insistió con ese análisis; pero no está escrito que Estados Unidos y China estén destinados a una guerra por esa isla. Aunque el peligro es real, no se trata de un resultado inevitable.
China considera que Taiwán es una provincia renegada, vestigio de la guerra civil de la década de 1940, y aunque las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y China se normalizaron en la década de 1970, Taiwán sigue siendo motivo de discusión... sin embargo, esas potencias hallaron una fórmula diplomática para ocultar el desacuerdo: desde ambos lados del estrecho de Taiwán los chinos acordaron que existe «una sola China».… Seguir leyendo »
At first blush, the results of Taiwan’s national elections last month read like a clear rebuke of China’s coercive reunification agenda. Despite Beijing’s incessant branding of Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) as “separatist”, Taiwanese voters extended the DPP’s presidential reign for an unprecedented third consecutive term. International headlines hailed the election as a major “setback” for China, which had warned that casting a ballot for the DPP was tantamount to voting for war with the mainland. Some media even framed the DPP’s victory as an act of defiance by the Taiwanese people, rebuffing Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s assertion in his recent New Year’s address that reunification between China and Taiwan is “inevitable”.… Seguir leyendo »
Si l'élection de William Lai à la présidence de Taïwan, le 13 janvier dernier, réaffirme l'identité de la nation taïwanaise au sein du monde chinois, elle ouvre une nouvelle phase de tension entre les deux rives du détroit de Formose dont les conséquences, à terme, seront loin d'être négligeables. La décision unilatérale de Pékin de modifier la trajectoire de la route aérienne civile M503, près de la ligne médiane, le 31 janvier, et l'incident mortel du 15 février, confirment les contours d'une stratégie chinoise de tensions sous le seuil, aux parades incertaines.
Le 15 février 2024, deux pêcheurs chinois se sont noyés donc à environ un mile marin au large de l'archipel de Kinmen après avoir été pourchassés par les garde-côtes taïwanais.… Seguir leyendo »
In 2020 the balance of military power in the Taiwan Strait began a gradual but profound shift in China’s favor.
That August, Alex Azar, then the health and human services secretary, became the highest-ranking U.S. cabinet official to visit Taiwan in more than four decades. Though he was there to talk about the pandemic, China’s People’s Liberation Army (P.L.A.) responded by carrying out large-scale military exercises around the self-governing island, sending aircraft over the median line of the Taiwan Strait, the halfway point between China and Taiwan, for only the third time in more than 20 years. Since then, China has responded to such visits and other perceived provocations by flying more than 4,800 sorties, with growing numbers of aircraft flying in locations previously seen as off-limits and conducting dozens of increasingly complex air and naval military exercises around Taiwan.… Seguir leyendo »
Washington and its allies face many potential geopolitical catastrophes over the next decade, but nearly all pale in comparison to what would ensue if China annexed or invaded Taiwan. Such an outcome, one U.S. official put it, “would be a disaster of utmost importance to the United States, and I am convinced that time is of the essence”. That was General Douglas MacArthur in June 1950, then overseeing occupied Japan and worrying in a top-secret memo to Washington about the prospect that the Communists in China might seek to vanquish their Nationalist enemies once and for all. More than 70 years later, MacArthur’s words ring truer than ever.… Seguir leyendo »
Se analizan los resultados de las elecciones generales taiwanesas y sus implicaciones internacionales, planteando posibles escenarios de evolución en el estrecho de Taiwán a corto y medio plazo.
Resumen
El escenario base para el estrecho de Taiwán tras las elecciones taiwanesas será continuista sin grandes iniciativas para modificar el statu quo desde Pekín, Taipéi o Washington. El desgaste del Partido Progresista Democrático (PPD), que ha perdido apoyos en las últimas elecciones y perdido el control del parlamento, dificulta una política aventurista por parte del nuevo gobierno. Por su parte, tanto Biden como Xi han apostado en los últimos meses por reducir las tensiones bilaterales para centrarse en asuntos domésticos en un 2024 que estará marcado por las elecciones presidenciales estadounidenses y los esfuerzos de las autoridades chinas por reactivar su economía.… Seguir leyendo »
Si una certeza dejaron las recientes elecciones presidenciales y legislativas celebradas en Taiwan es que la taiwanesa es una democracia modélica. Mientras una ola de populismo, polarización y posverdad se propaga por todo el planeta, afectando también a muchas democracias consolidadas, Taiwan ha dado una lección de sensatez política y madurez democrática pese a que, con la salvedad de Ucrania, sobre ningún otro país se cierne la amenaza de que una todopoderosa potencia autoritaria -situada a sólo 160 kilómetros de sus costas- lance contra él una invasión militar para anexionárselo.
En vez de alimentar divisiones irreconciliables, la campaña electoral no fue conflictiva y los candidatos evitaron los ataques personales.… Seguir leyendo »
El pasado sábado Taiwán volvió a demostrar al mundo lo vibrante que es su democracia, con una participación de más del 70% para elegir al nuevo presidente y a su órgano legislativo, el Yuan. Lai Ching-te, candidato del Partido Progresista Democrático (PPD) ganó las elecciones presidenciales pero su partido no obtuvo los votos suficientes para controlar el Parlamento. El antiguo partido que ha dominado la escena política en Taiwán desde décadas, con mejores vínculos con China continental, el Kuomintang (KMT) superó al PPD por un escaño en el Yuan legislativo mientras que el más recientemente creado Partido Popular de Taiwán (PPT), aunque cuenta con pocos escaños tiene la clave para que el PPD pueda legislar.… Seguir leyendo »
Los obstáculos para una invasión exitosa de la isla por parte de China siguen siendo formidables.
Xi Jinping cree que la historia se mueve a su favor. En su visita a Vladimir Putin en Moscú el pasado mes de marzo, el líder chino le dijo al presidente ruso: "Ahora mismo, estamos asistiendo a un cambio nunca visto en 100 años y estamos impulsando este cambio juntos".
Aquella frase dio la vuelta al mundo. Las palabras de Xi fueron vistas como un claro respaldo a la invasión rusa de Ucrania - y una sugerencia de que China, también, pronto desempeñará su papel para "impulsar este cambio".… Seguir leyendo »
For the US, Saturday’s Taiwan election results signal the continuation of heightened tension with China over the issue of Taiwan’s sovereignty. In some ways, President-Elect Lai Ching-te and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) made the election into a referendum over whether Taiwan should draw nearer to the US or China.
Lai’s victory signals four more years of efforts to emphasize the island’s ties to the US and to seek closer cooperation between Taipei and Washington. This will be the case regardless of who wins the US presidential election in November.
Expect the US to continue its strong, bipartisan support for Taiwan – a posture reinforced by the presence of a bipartisan coalition of former senior officials who met with Lai and Vice-President-elect Hsiao Bi-khim in Taipei on Monday.… Seguir leyendo »
Conflict between China and the United States just got a little more likely.
On Saturday, Taiwanese voters handed the Democratic Progressive Party (D.P.P.), which asserts that Taiwan is already independent from China and should stay that way, an unprecedented third consecutive presidential victory. In doing so, the island’s people shrugged off ominous warnings by China that a win by President-elect Lai Ching-te — considered by Beijing to be a dangerous Taiwan independence advocate — could trigger a war.
The result should lay to rest any doubt about the direction in which Taiwan is going. Determined to maintain their autonomy, the people of Taiwan are drifting further from China and won’t come back voluntarily, elevating military action as one of the only options left for China to effect the unification with Taiwan that it has long sought.… Seguir leyendo »
Le 13 janvier dernier, les Taïwanais étaient conviés aux urnes, dans un contexte de tensions accrues entre la Chine et les États-Unis. Le Parti démocrate progressiste (PDP), favorable à l’indépendance de l’île, a remporté un troisième mandat consécutif. Une première depuis la démocratisation de l’île à la fin des années 1980. Malgré le contexte sécuritaire entourant l’île, on remarque que le quart des électeurs ont voté d’une manière contestataire, au grand bénéfice du Parti populaire taïwanais (PPT), jeune parti créé en 2019.
Sans pour autant nier les enjeux internationaux, les enjeux intérieurs, tels que le coût de la vie et les emplois, semblent préoccuper davantage une certaine partie de l’électorat taïwanais.… Seguir leyendo »
On a gorgeous, sunny Saturday, Taiwan held its presidential election: 14 million people, or 72% of eligible voters, turned out to vote – my elderly parents among them. As with many families in Taiwan, ours is politically divided along generational lines, and we’ve had our share of screaming matches. But somehow, on voting day, we were at peace. “I’m proud of you”, I said, snapping a photo. And I meant it. We live in a democracy, and we all appreciate it. Afterwards, we lunched at a spot that had a particularly excellent three-cup chicken – and then, ice-cream.
My home, Taiwan, is a shining example of freedom, democracy and inclusivity. We have one of the world’s most open societies, the highest percentage of female legislators in Asia and a government minister who is transgender. Decades of hard work, smart policies and entrepreneurial mindsets have led to enviably high standards of living and made us the global heart of the semiconductor industry.
When Taiwan votes in elections on Saturday, I will go to the polls with a real feeling of worry about our future and whether we can preserve and maintain what we’ve achieved.
Taiwan’s accomplishments were made possible in part by decades of stability between China and the United States.… Seguir leyendo »
Taiwán acude a las urnas para elegir a su presidente y al parlamento de los próximos cuatro años. Si bien la actualidad política doméstica de este territorio tiende a pasar bajo el radar de la atención mediática en Europa, estos comicios han atraído la atención de muchos debido a su carga geopolítica e importancia económica y su trascendencia para el futuro, no solo de la isla, sino de toda la región. Las tensiones entre China y Estados Unidos han situado a Taiwán como uno de los puntos más sensibles en la competición geopolítica entre ambos, donde el riesgo de conflicto es más notable.… Seguir leyendo »
On Jan. 13, Taiwan will elect a new government whose decision-making will play an important role in shaping cross-strait dynamics for the next four years. Final polls in early January show the Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lai Ching-te as the favorite, marginally ahead of the Kuomintang candidate Hou You-yi, followed by the Taiwan People’s Party’s Ko Wen-je.
A Lai win will produce the most tensions in the near term because China sees this scenario as most threatening to its interests. In response, Beijing will likely increase its pressures on Taiwan even further, through a variety of coercive military and economic tools.… Seguir leyendo »
Le mardi 9 janvier 2024 à 15 h 04, le ministère de la Défense de la République de Chine, Taïwan, a émis une alerte invitant la population à la plus grande prudence à la suite du passage d’un satellite chinois dans l’espace aérien de l’île.
Le message rédigé en caractères chinois et suivi d’une traduction en anglais est apparu sur les téléphones intelligents des résidents de Taïwan, suscitant de nombreuses inquiétudes, amplifiées par ce qui a été ultérieurement qualifié par le ministère lui-même comme une erreur de traduction. En effet, alors que le message en chinois indiquait « La Chine a lancé un satellite à 15 h 04 et il a déjà survolé la partie méridionale du pays.… Seguir leyendo »
On January 13, Taiwan’s citizens will elect their next president. The candidates are framing the race in increasingly existential terms: for William Lai of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the choice facing voters is between democracy and autocracy. For Hou Yu-ih of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), the outcome will determine whether there will be war or peace in the Taiwan Strait. The third-party candidate, Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), has warned that only he can prevent war with China. Beijing has endorsed the KMT’s framing, and one official has ominously expressed the hope that Taiwan’s voters will “make the right choice between ‘peace and war.’”… Seguir leyendo »
When outsiders think about Taiwan’s elections, they often look for answers to the grand questions of the island’s future: does this election indicate that Taiwan will move towards unification with China, or towards becoming a formally independent country? Meanwhile, people on the ground often note that surprisingly little of the political discussion is actually about China. Candidates usually spend most of their time talking about other issues, such as nuclear power, high consumer prices, health-care spending and public housing. As a result, analysts often argue that Taiwanese voters have moved past questions about China and now care more about issues that affect their day-to-day quality of life.… Seguir leyendo »
In an ideal world, Taiwan’s national elections would be nothing to do with China or the US. They would simply be an opportunity for the self-governing island’s 24 million people to choose the politicians and policies that best satisfy their aspirations. But when polling stations open on 13 January, cross-strait relations and geopolitics will weigh on the minds of voters.
The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the opposing Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) all claim that they are best placed to preserve Taiwan’s de facto independence and peace with China, despite differences in how warmly they would approach Beijing.… Seguir leyendo »
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