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An exhibition titled 'Investment projects of the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol' at the 2016 Yalta International Economic Forum. Photo via Getty Images.

On 20–21 October, EU leaders will discuss their relationship with Russia and whether to retain, adapt or drop the sanctions regime introduced in 2014 to express discontent with Russia’s actions and to constrain its behaviour. While the debate in Western capitals has focused on the personal and sectoral sanctions to influence Moscow’s policies, little attention has been paid to sanctions erosion.

Businesses and local authorities in Donbas and Crimea have been exploiting loopholes in the sanctions regime, but these transgressions have not so far met with any response from Western governments. Their silence is sustaining the finances of the unrecognized authorities in occupied territory in Donbas and Russian-annexed Crimea.…  Seguir leyendo »

Less than a month after French President François Hollande mused that sanctions on Russia should be lifted (apparently reflecting the prevailing sentiment in much of the European Union), Russia has launched a new offensive through its proxies in Ukraine. Facing a full-blown crisis, with the Russian economy estimated to be contracting by at least 5% this year, Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to be unconcerned about further economic pressure and diplomatic isolation. Is he irrational? As the only one making important decisions in Russia today, does Putin not care about the sanctions? He is not and he does. His is a multiphased, well-calibrated endgame to destabilize Ukraine and to weaken the sanctions at the same time.…  Seguir leyendo »

Pro-Russian separatists from the Chechen “Death” battalion walk during a training exercise in the territory controlled by the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, eastern Ukraine, December 8, 2014. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov

Confusion, confusion, confusion! This is how Russian President Vladimir Putin, increasingly isolated from Western conversations, keeps the world on its toes. Because only he has any answers.

The conflict in eastern Ukraine is ever more fierce. Russian-supported rebels in the occupied cities of Donetsk and Luhansk now use sophisticated weapons to capture more land and ports. Yet Putin continues to insist that Moscow has nothing to do with it, despite abundant proof from intelligence reports and satellite imagery. He has no influence, Putin declares, over the rebel bands battling for independence from a Kiev government that the CIA installed.

Putin needs the bombastic oratory of war.…  Seguir leyendo »

Demonstrators rally in Kiev after last weekend's shelling that left at least 30 people dead and more than 100 injured in the Ukrainian-controlled port of Mariupol. (Sergei Supinsky/ AFP/Getty Images)

As Western countries respond to the resumption of all-out war in Ukraine, they must ensure that the driving force behind the hostilities — Moscow — pays a greater cost for the rising civilian death toll. European Union foreign ministers are set to meet Thursday to discuss deepening sanctions against Russia. However, if the United States and its allies are serious about supporting Ukraine's freedom to determine its own future, they must agree on a more comprehensive approach, including the provision of effective military aid to the Ukrainian military and the training to use it.

If there were any illusions about who is fueling the violence that's laying waste to the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine's Donbas coal basin, there should be none now.…  Seguir leyendo »

Esta semana, la Unión Europea impuso nuevas sanciones a Rusia. Esta decisión se produjo tras meses de desestabilización de Ucrania por parte de Rusia y meses de iniciativas políticas y diplomáticas para restablecer la paz y la estabilidad. La UE no ha adoptado estas medidas a la ligera. Sino que hemos decidido colectivamente que no podemos quedarnos parados mientras el presidente Putin pisotea el Derecho Internacional y los derechos de un país vecino soberano. No podemos ignorar las muertes y destrucción que las acciones de Rusia han provocado en el continente que compartimos. Las sanciones son una parte fundamental de la respuesta de la UE.…  Seguir leyendo »

Rusia y Occidente avanzan en una dirección que les está llevando hacia un enfrentamiento cada vez más peligroso, sin que se vislumbre una solución. Los combates en el este de Ucrania se intensificarán en las próximas semanas, y en septiembre es probable que Estados Unidos y Europa endurezcan sus sanciones, que serán un lastre aún mayor para la economía rusa. Sin embargo, aunque se intensifiquen las tensiones, no nos encontramos (todavía) ante una nueva Guerra Fría. Y ello se debe a dos motivos principales.

El primero es que a Estados Unidos y Europa nunca les interesará Ucrania tanto como a Rusia.…  Seguir leyendo »

La Unión Europea finalmente ha llegado a un acuerdo sobre sus “sanciones de tercer nivel”  contra Rusia por sus acciones en Ucrania. Como es habitual en la UE, se ha tenido que atravesar por un proceso largo y difícil para llegar a este punto.

Un problema clave a lo largo de todo este camino ha sido que, a pesar de que las sanciones tienen un propósito común, los costos de su implementación son sufragados por los Estados miembros de manera individual. Además, los costos son muy concretos y visibles, debido a que lo que aparentemente se encuentra en juego son los puestos de trabajo en empresas que dependen de sus exportaciones a Rusia.…  Seguir leyendo »

Al intensificarse la crisis en Ucrania, los Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea están encerrados en una batalla de voluntades –y sanciones– con Rusia. De hecho, en represalia por la intensificación de las sanciones financieras occidentales, Rusia ha anunciado una prohibición de importaciones agrícolas y de alimentos procedentes de los EE.UU. y la UE, pero la amenaza real para Occidente estriba en las posibles repercusiones de una crisis financiera desencadenada por sus propias sanciones contra Rusia.

Pensemos en la crisis financiera de Rusia en 1998. En agosto de aquel año, el entonces Presidente, Borís Yeltsin, declaró: “No habrá devaluación: eso es seguro”.…  Seguir leyendo »

Tandis que la Russie vient d’adopter un embargo alimentaire en riposte aux sanctions économiques occidentales (principalement des Etats-Unis et de l’Union européenne), l’entreprise punitive contre la « Russie-de-Poutine » a plus que jamais le vent en poupe. Dans l’opinion et les médias occidentaux, c’est un véritable « Carthago delenda est » (« Il faut détruire Carthage ! »).

Certes, il y a bien « une Russie-de-Poutine ». Celle que, paradoxalement, les sanctions n’ont fait que renforcer. Principalement structurée, dans l’entourage immédiat du président de la Fédération de Russie, par les fameux « siloviki », autrement dit les représentants des « ministères de force » (défense, intérieur, services secrets), elle cultive en héritage des heures les plus noires du stalinisme le complexe obsidional : cette Russie-là se sent menacée dans son intégrité territoriale et dans son identité spirituelle par les menées de puissances hostiles.…  Seguir leyendo »

Muchos críticos sostienen que las sanciones impuestas a Rusia por sus acciones en Ucrania no son efectivas, por ser demasiado limitadas en escala y alcance. Es más, se cree que las sanciones le permiten al presidente Vladimir Putin culpar a Occidente por los problemas internos de Rusia. De hecho, algunos de los seguidores de Putin dentro de Rusia reciben con beneplácito las sanciones por considerarlas un medio para forzar la autarquía rusa -y, así, la independencia estratégica de Occidente.

Estos argumentos son erróneos. Si bien las sanciones no están respaldadas por China, ya están teniendo un efecto poderoso, y la expectativa de que se ajusten aún más es una gran preocupación para los inversores y el gobierno ruso.…  Seguir leyendo »

The downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 has finally spurred the United States and Europe to agree on imposing additional sanctions on Russia. But Vladimir Putin's tactics in Ukraine are likely to be far more influenced by his domestic political calculus than by international pressure. In fact, given how important winning — or at least not losing — the proxy war in Ukraine has become to the popularity and legitimacy of the Putin government, the sanctions are unlikely to have much effect in the short run. Instead, it seems probable they will lead to an even greater resolve on Putin's part to support the separatists in Ukraine.…  Seguir leyendo »

Los líderes occidentales siguen indecisos respecto de sus próximas medidas para procurar detener la agresión rusa a Ucrania. Pero hay algo que está suficientemente claro: los tímidos ensayos hechos hasta el momento (sanciones personales, un embargo a la exportación de armas y la suspensión temporal de la pertenencia de Rusia al G8) no han hecho retroceder al presidente ruso, Vladímir Putin.

Felizmente, existe una solución y es sencilla: que la Unión Europea disponga un embargo a sus importaciones de materias primas rusas, especialmente petróleo y gas. La pregunta es si sería viable.

Si hasta ahora no se hizo, es por buenos motivos.…  Seguir leyendo »

It’s hard to understand the rationale for the Western, and Japanese, sanctions against Russia over Ukraine. Moscow says it wants a federal system of government giving more power to semi-autonomous regional units. And many in the West say they would support something similar. Even Kiev sees it as one acceptable outcome of the constitutional referendum it plans for May 25. So why the sanctions and all the heavy breathing?

The best answer we can get from Washington is that while it supports decentralization, it opposes too much power being given to the regions since this will favor Moscow in the traditionally pro-Russia east of the nation.…  Seguir leyendo »

We recently visited Norway, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Moldova. In each country, our allies want a stronger immediate response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its ongoing subversion of Ukraine. They also believe, as we do, that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s latest acts of aggression require an enduring strategic response from the United States, Europe and NATO. It should be clear to all that Putin’s Russia has taken a dark turn. There is no resetting this relationship. We cannot return to business as usual.

Western countries had high hopes for our relationships with Russia after the Cold War and acted on that basis.…  Seguir leyendo »

At 7.30pm on December 25 1991, the Soviet flag was lowered from the Kremlin and the white, red and blue tricolour of Russia was raised in its place. There was no ceremony, only a mix of bewilderment, excitement for some and alarm for others. I drove from Red Square a few miles down the road to the home of Lev Kerbel, the USSR’s most decorated sculptor. Just about every giant Lenin or Marx worth its marble around the world was his creation. I had got to know him well, and it seemed appropriate that, on the day the Soviet Union died, I should go and see a man born on the day of the Bolshevik revolution.…  Seguir leyendo »

This week European nations adopted unprecedented sanctions on Russia. These are not designed to punish the Russian people. They are a message and a warning to Russia’s leaders.

We have not embarked on this course lightly. For twenty years Britain and our allies in Europe and Nato have gradually built a normal relationship with Russia. Russia joined the G8 and the World Trade Organisation, we created the Nato-Russia Council, and we have worked together on the United Nations Security Council from Yemen to Somalia. We have all gained from this cooperation.

But Russia’s actions in Ukraine hark back to a wholly different era.…  Seguir leyendo »

When Vladi­mir Putin formally annexed Crimea this week, he acted in defiance of the predictions of many pundits, politicians and so-called experts. Perhaps Putin was not impressed by their sound reasoning and elegant discourse on how his invasion and annexation threatened Russia’s interests. But the main problem with the West’s “Putin would never” arguments is that they assume Putin and his ruling elite care about Russian national interests. They do not, except in the few areas where such interests overlap with their goal of looting as much treasure as possible. It is long past time to stop listening to professors’ lectures about what Putin would never do and high time to respond to what he does — before he does it again.…  Seguir leyendo »

Vladi­mir Putin’s annexation of Crimea is a direct challenge and long-term threat to the post-World War II international order for which the United States and our allies have made great sacrifices over the past seven decades. If Putin is allowed to take land from a neighboring nation through deceit and raw military force without serious consequences, the precedent could have global repercussions, including in Asia.

Some have suggested that Crimea is not worth triggering tensions with Russia, given other interests that are more important. While it is best to avoid conflict whenever possible, history shows that illegitimate aggressions that go unchallenged are a virtual guarantee of even more dangerous conflict in the future.…  Seguir leyendo »

As I write this, I am under house arrest. I was detained at a rally in support of anti-Putin protesters who were jailed last month.

In September, I ran for mayor of Moscow as a pro-reform, pro-democracy opposition candidate and received almost a third of the vote despite having no access to state media. Today, my blog, which was until recently visited by over two million readers per month, has been blocked as “extremist” after I called for friendly ties with Ukraine and compliance with international law.

For years, I have been telling journalists that President Vladimir V. Putin’s approval rating would soon peak and then tumble.…  Seguir leyendo »

Big, big sigh of relief among Russia's super-rich, as the West announces "smart sanctions" against a group of Kremlin officials and members of Russian parliament in response to the referendum that took place in Crimea and produced a result resembling the elections in the old Soviet Union: 96.7% of the people who took part in it voted for the peninsula to become part of Russia.

The joke on the streets of Moscow is that the politicians took the bullet for the oligarchs, not for the first time and not the last.

But jokes aside, the fate of Crimea is sealed. It will become part of Russia in about three months' time and, as things stand now, President Vladimir Putin has already signed an executive order recognizing the peninsula as an independent state, confirming his determination to stick to his guns in his address to the Federal Assembly.…  Seguir leyendo »