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La UE y Ucrania si gana Trump

MundoAméricaEuropa, , , ,

La Unión Europea debe prepararse para una victoria de Donald Trump. Con la guerra abierta en Ucrania -probablemente en el momento más crítico para la posición defensiva de este país y ante el chute de confianza que a Putin le ha brindado su reelección-, el riesgo para la seguridad y para el mantenimiento del apoyo a Kiev es alto si al mismo tiempo Europa debe afrontar una crisis dentro de la OTAN y con una eventual Administración republicana. Una crisis como la que ya se produjo con Trump a lo largo de su mandato, especialmente durante sus visitas a Europa en 2017 y 2018.…  Seguir leyendo »

An employee presents t-shirts with images of Vladimir Putin at a gift shop, Moscow, 2018. Alexander Nemenov/AFP/Getty Images

Europa,

Every time a foreign friend asks me about elections in Russia, I go through a familiar cycle: first awkwardness, then confusion, then shame. I freeze inside. Now I will have to tell them.

I smile stupidly and choose my words: “We don’t exactly have elections in Russia”.

We have a ritual called an election. On election day you can go to a school or a hospital or a factory cafeteria, where the atmosphere is festive: music plays over speakers and people sell cheap food, like hand pies with meat and rice. You acquire a ballot with the candidates’ names on it, enter a booth, put an X beside a name, and slip it through the slit of a special box.…  Seguir leyendo »

Vladimir Putin durante una video conferencia con el presidente de Turquía, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, en 2021. Foto: Kremlin.ru (Wikimedia Commons / CC BY 4.0)

Europa,

Hay ocasiones en las que la victoria electoral de un candidato presidencial lo cambia todo, marcando un antes y un después tanto en la gestión de los asuntos internos como en la manera de proyectarse al resto del planeta. Y si las elecciones se producen en el país más grande del mundo, con más razón cabe preguntarse si la victoria de Vladímir Putin en las elecciones celebradas este pasado fin de semana supone algún cambio para Rusia. La respuesta, sin más rodeos, es un rotundo no.

No es realmente ninguna noticia que Putin haya vencido en unos comicios en los que no existía ninguna alternativa realista de oposición a su ominoso poder.…  Seguir leyendo »

El presidente Vladimir Putin en una entrevista en plena campaña.AFP

Europa,

Mañana conoceremos oficialmente el resultado de la puramente formal contienda presidencial en Rusia. No cabe albergar duda al respecto: "gana Putin". Sin perjuicio de analizar las peculiaridades de estos primeros comicios desde el arranque de la "Operación Especial" hace ya dos años, la cuestión relevante es hasta qué punto "gana Putin" representa -más allá del teatro de la votación- la resiliencia, la legitimidad del régimen. Por fin, a partir de la cacofonía a que contribuyen activa y sostenidamente líderes europeos y americanos, es imperativo valorar la trascendencia del relato "gana Putin" como inexorable desenlace de la guerra, repicado por actores variados.…  Seguir leyendo »

Members of a local election commission, accompanied by a serviceman, prepare a mobile polling station during early voting in Russia's presidential election in Donetsk, Russian-controlled Ukraine. (Photo by STRINGER/AFP via Getty Images)

Europa,

Elections in modern Russia have long been a symbolic performance designed to show the world the indestructible unity of the Russian population with the ruling power.

The outcome of this month’s presidential election is pre-ordained, leading to understandably scant enthusiasm among the electorate.

To address that indifference, this election cycle will see the Kremlin use an innovative array of techniques to bolster participation rates among politically passive populations.

Despite this skewed electoral playing field some opposition-minded Russians still plan to come to polling stations. But how much can they influence the predetermined outcome?

Coercion, online voting, and incentives from the Kremlin

The Kremlin has long mastered the art of engineering electoral turnout to legitimize its rule, but every new electoral cycle takes new approaches and techniques to manipulate elections.…  Seguir leyendo »

Rusia presta juramento al zar Putin este domingo

Europa,

En una monarquía el pueblo presta juramento al zar una única vez. Democracia a la rusa, esto significa que el pueblo tiene que prestar juramento al zar con regularidad.

Las elecciones en Rusia siempre tienen lugar bajo el mismo patrón: el poder pertenece al poder. Con el transcurso de los años, lo único que ha cambiado es la forma exterior del ritual legitimador. En la Horda de Oro los representantes de la nobleza estiraban un gigantesco fieltro blanco desde donde se alzaba al soberano escogido. Entonces, obtenía su estatus oficial y podía dar órdenes, repartir rangos, ejecutar acciones y conceder indultos.…  Seguir leyendo »

Reunión de Vladimir Putin con partidarios en Moscú antes de las elecciones presidenciales de 2024. Foto: © Contributor / Getty Images

Europa,
Tema

Rusia celebrará elecciones presidenciales entre el 15 y el 17 de marzo de 2024, siendo obvio el triunfo de Vladimir Putin, con lo que ello conllevará.

Resumen

La guerra en Ucrania es el telón de fondo de las elecciones presidenciales rusas. Por muy obvio que sea el triunfo de Vladimir Putin, que conseguirá su quinto mandato presidencial, estas elecciones de 2024 no serán un ritual vacío. Están destinadas a mostrar el dominio y la legitimidad de Putin dentro de Rusia, pero también, de cara al exterior, se presentarán como un referéndum sobre la guerra contra Ucrania.

Análisis Introducción

Desde la llegada al poder de Vladimir Putin en 2000, y durante los largos 24 años de su permanencia en el mismo, el Kremlin ha organizado sus elecciones presidenciales, regionales y generales mediante el sistema de la “democracia soberana”, basado en el supuesto de que cada pueblo, según su carácter y tradición, debe poseer su propia democracia: un concepto inventado por Vladislav Surkov (antiguo asesor del propio Putin).…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a welcome ceremony in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on Oct. 12. (Pavel Bednyakov/AP)

Europa,

“SPECIAL REGIME” PRISON COLONY No. 7, OMSK, Russia — The radio in my prison cell is turned on all day, from the wake-up call at 5 a.m. to the lights-out at 9 p.m. And the closer it gets to the weekend of March 15, the more announcements I hear on the air about the so-called presidential election. I don’t mean, of course, campaign ads that you would expect in democratic countries. No, the announcements are all simply telling listeners the different ways they can cast their vote, in-person and online.

Many people wonder why dictatorships even bother to hold “elections” when everyone knows that they are nothing but staged, meaningless rituals.…  Seguir leyendo »

A woman watching a broadcast of a speech by Russian President Vladimir Putin, St. Petersburg, February 2024. Anton Vaganov / Reuters

Europa,

In 2012, Vladimir Putin, after four years as prime minister, once again became Russia’s president. Many Russians resented his engineered return: before the 2012 presidential election, “Russia Without Putin” had been a popular sign at protest rallies. Their discontent had something to do with Putin himself and much to do with Russia’s evolving political system. There was no institution or clause in the Russian constitution that could constrain Putin. Nobody stood in his way.

Early-stage Putinism was marked by a mix of public complacency and indifference. Complacency flourished when the Russian economy expanded between 2000 and 2008, the first eight years of Putin’s presidency, enabling the rise of a Russian middle class.…  Seguir leyendo »

Politician Boris Nadezhdin speaks to journalists after being barred from standing in Russia's presidential election, in February. Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP

Europa,

On March 17 there will be an event in Russia which out of habit we will call an election. But of course, there are no elections there anymore. Instead, this is the reappointment of Vladimir Putin to the highest position in the largest country in the world.

In 2003, when Putin was still a young president, I was a student at the Faculty of Journalism at Moscow State University. This was my first parliamentary election. I remember making my way to participate in the voting through the snowdrifts of winter Moscow, freezing.

But it made sense — I was going to give my vote to the liberal Union of Right Forces (URF) party, one of the leaders of which was Boris Nemtsov.…  Seguir leyendo »

Urnas electorales con el escudo de la Federación Rusa en un colegio electoral. Foto: Semen Salivanchuk / Getty Images

Europa,
Tema

En su afán por construir una sociedad monolítica y consolidada, el Kremlin sólo ha logrado impulsar un pensamiento doble y una indiferencia evasiva aprendida. Una existencia apuntalada en bayonetas y porras policiales nunca podrá ser cómoda.

Resumen

El modelo de poder de Vladímir Putin se encamina hacia las elecciones presidenciales de marzo de 2024 apoyándose en gran medida en dos pilares inestables: el conformismo pasivo y el miedo, este último exacerbado por la repentina muerte en prisión del líder opositor Alexéi Navalni un mes antes de los comicios. Aunque nadie duda del resultado de las elecciones, la campaña presidencial está exponiendo ya el mito de una consolidación firme en torno a un presidente irremplazable.…  Seguir leyendo »

Boris Nadezhdin, who is seeking to run against Vladimir Putin in Russia's presidential election in March, speaks with members of the media on Jan. 31. (Maxim Shipenkov/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

Europa, , , ,

Western observers are increasingly pessimistic about Ukraine’s chances for driving out the Russian invaders, with some even suggesting that Vladimir Putin might use his country’s military might to attack NATO countries on its borders. But one key factor is ignored by the doomsayers: Support for Putin’s war among Russians — crucial to the country’s success in defeating Ukraine — is faltering significantly.

Not only do some polls suggest that a majority of Russians want the Kremlin to end the Ukraine conflict, but a vocal, grass-roots opposition to the war is also taking shape — and is throwing a monkey wrench into Putin’s plans to use his reelection as an affirmation of national backing for his military agenda.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian President Vladimir Putin at a ceremony with youth organizations, Red Square, Moscow, November 2023. Gavriil Grigorov / Sputnik / Reuters

Europa,

“If there is Putin, there is Russia; if there is no Putin, there is no Russia”, the current speaker of the State Duma, the aggressive loyalist Vyacheslav Volodin, pronounced, back in 2014. He was outlining an ideal autocracy, one in which the country would be equated with its ruler and vice versa. At the time Volodin spoke those words, the Kremlin was basking in an upsurge of national euphoria following the annexation of Crimea. With the so-called Putin majority ascendant, the government could hasten its shift toward such a regime with broad popular approval.

But Volodin was a bit ahead of his time.…  Seguir leyendo »

Alexey Liptser appears in court in Moscow on October 13, 2023. (Photo by Yevgeny Kurakin / AFP via Getty Images)

Europa,

The recent arrest of three of Alexey Navalny’s lawyers – Vadim Kobzev, Igor Sergunin and Alexey Liptser – is a demonstration of insecurity on the part of Russian authorities. The Kremlin has proven unable to remove Navalny from the political scene by imprisoning him, just as it failed to remove him by poisoning.

Even though Navalny’s influence is now largest outside of Russia, the regular statements spread by his team get to the core of political life in the country and infuriate the Russian authorities – leading to this latest attempt to block channels of communication between Navalny in prison and his team in exile.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAméricaEuropa, , , , ,

As Russia prepares for an imminent Ukrainian counteroffensive, and America’s 2024 presidential race takes shape, it is becoming increasingly apparent that Russian President Vladimir Putin believes one possible path to victory in his so far unsuccessful war runs through the US election.

The latest evidence that Putin may just expect Western support for Ukraine to end – if only Russian forces hold on until there’s a new president in the White House – came tucked away in a blistering announcement from Russia’s Foreign Ministry on Friday, declaring entry into the country would be “closed for 500 Americans”.

The blacklist, Moscow explained, targets individuals “involved in the spread of Russophobic attitudes and fakes”, as well as principals in companies supplying weapons to Ukraine.…  Seguir leyendo »

A man looks at a screen showing polling stations at the headquarters of Russia's Central Election Commission in Moscow on Sept. 19. (Shamil Zhumatov/Reuters, File Photo)

Europa,

Electoral precinct 40, located in a charming historic area a few minutes’ walking distance from the Kremlin, is among the few in Moscow that can be trusted to count votes honestly. Ever since I first voted here at the age of 18, the official tallies have always reflected the actual votes cast. In Moscow’s 2013 mayoral election, the candidate who won the precinct was anticorruption campaigner and opposition activist Alexei Navalny. Local Muscovite pride may be one factor in this honesty; the presence of independent electoral commission members in the precinct may be another.

So when I came to vote here on Sunday, and then stayed overnight to observe the count, I was certain that I would get a glimpse of the real sentiments of Russian voters.…  Seguir leyendo »

Screens display voting results at the Information Center in the Russian Central Election Commission following the country's 2021 legislative election. Photo by Vladimir Gerdo\TASS via Getty Images.

Europa,

What is being claimed by Russia’s political leadership as an honest and overwhelming victory masks clear manipulation, as well as challenges presented by opposition forces in the country. And yet the flagrant rigging of results is more likely to lead to further opposition despondency than mass protests.

Although elections took place at local, regional, and national levels in Russia, it was elections to the State Duma – the lower chamber of the national parliament – which were the main event as the first national-level elections since a marked decline in Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings following deeply unpopular pension reforms in 2018.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Public Election Monitoring Center at Moscow's Expocenter Exhibition Complex. Photo by Artyom Geodakyan\TASS via Getty Images.

Europa,

Edmund Burke warned prophetically in 1790 that the French Revolution would – by destroying the working of the country’s constitutional institutions – leave it with no law but the will of a prevailing force, and that a state without adequate means of managing due change would lack the means of preserving itself (1).

The Russian elections, to be concluded on 19 September, fit an established Putin regime pattern which is designed to reduce the independent authority of the country’s institutions to a fiction in favour of authoritarian rule as it moves towards the presidential elections of 2024 – thereby further diminishing Russia’s chances of managed evolutionary change in the future.…  Seguir leyendo »

Figura 3. La población de Rusia por edad y sexo, a 1/I/2020 (millones). Fuente: Naciones Unidas (2019), “World Population Prospects”.

Europa,
Tema

Del 17 al 19 de septiembre se celebrarán en Rusia elecciones generales y la pregunta clave es si el resultado llevará a una posible transformación política del país.

Resumen

Del 17 al 19 de septiembre se celebrarán en Rusia elecciones generales, las octavas desde la desintegración de la Unión Soviética. La pregunta clave de las elecciones parlamentarias rusas no es qué partido ganará los comicios: Rusia Unida renovará su dominio de la Duma con una mayoría simple o absoluta. Los principales objetivos del Kremlin son obtener la victoria de dicho partido (a pesar de que su popularidad está en mínimos históricos de un 27%), conservar su statu quo dominante en el sistema político ruso y abrir el camino hacia la reelección de Vladimir Putin en las elecciones presidenciales de 2024.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny sits in a cage during a hearing Feb. 12 on his charges of defamation in the Babuskinsky District Court in Moscow. (Babuskinsky District Court Press Service via AP) (AP)

Europa,

Over the past week, Russia’s political parties have been submitting nomination papers for their candidates in September’s parliamentary election. In some cases, gathering the documents has proved more difficult than in others.

One such case involves Yabloko, the last (genuine) opposition party that still retains ballot access — a relic of Russia’s brief stint with democracy in the 1990s. Its list of candidates for the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, includes Andrei Pivovarov, an opposition activist held in pretrial detention and facing up to six years in prison on a charge of belonging to an “undesirable organization” (in his case, the now-defunct Open Russia, founded by exiled Putin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky).…  Seguir leyendo »