As President Xi Jinping of China left North Korea on Friday afternoon, much attention was focused on whether he had obtained any concession on denuclearization from Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader — and how he might leverage that when he meets President Trump this week on the margins of the G-20 summit. But this focus on nuclear weapons and China’s trade war with the United States obscures the real significance of Mr. Xi’s trip, and it mistakes his weakness for strength.
As notable as the pomp and ceremony of the rare meeting — the first visit to Pyongyang by a Chinese head of state in 14 years — was the lack of specifics about policy to emerge from it.… Seguir leyendo »
China’s immediate priorities would be evacuating its citizens from affected areas, defending its border, preventing an inflow of refugees, and safeguarding North Korea’s nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons stockpiles.
Locating and securing weapons of mass destruction would likely be a shared objective for China and all other governments involved, and could offer scope for cooperation, eventually under U.N. auspices. China has consistently maintained that it wants denuclearization for the entire peninsula and it would likely seek to ensure that Seoul did not end up with control of nuclear weapons. China’s domestic security apparatus also would have concerns about smuggling that could lead to proliferation.… Seguir leyendo »
With the series of events over the last three weeks in North Korea, from firing of ballistic missiles over Japan to the testing of what looked to be a hydrogen bomb on 3 September, Pyongyang’s direction seems clear enough. Despite immense effort over two decades, from sanctions to increasing isolation and international ostracization, the impoverished country with a population of just 23 million and one of the lowest per capita GDPs in the world has, far more effectively and quickly than anyone had predicted, created something close to a viable, projectible, nuclear weapon capability.
President Trump has not been shy in saying the United States could go it alone in dealing with North Korea. Raising the alarming specter of a second Korean War, the president has effectively affirmed Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s warning that unilateral military action to eliminate North Korea’s nuclear arsenal has not been ruled out.
North Korea is on the agenda as Mr. Trump hosts President Xi Jinping of China this week at his Florida estate. Could Mr. Trump’s hints about his North Korea policy show that he plans to enlist Beijing in ousting the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un? And was the missile attack against a Syrian airbase, launched just after Mr.… Seguir leyendo »
If Hillary Clinton is elected, her national security team plans to urgently address the growing North Korean nuclear and missile threat. That would surely raise tensions on the Korean peninsula — and it could also lead to an early and acrimonious confrontation between a Clinton administration and the Chinese government of Xi Jinping.
Xi is staunchly opposed to Clinton’s plan to drastically increase sanctions on the regime of Kim Jong Un. At the Munich Security Conference Core Group meeting here last week, Chinese officials and experts delivered a clear and unequivocal message to the visiting Westerners: China will not take any steps against Pyongyang that might increase the chance of a confrontation with the North Korean regime or encourage regime change on China’s border.… Seguir leyendo »
North Korea conducted a rocket launch on Feb. 7, a day before the beginning of the Feb. 8-25 time frame it had originally provided for the launch. With diplomats from around the world scrambling to come up with a unified response, South Korea and the United States have already decided on one bilateral move: formally beginning talks over the deployment of the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system. That, in turn, has reignited hand-wringing in China about the threat THAAD poses to Chinese national security.
In fact, official statements from the Chinese Foreign Ministry on THAAD deployment were more severe than its statements responding to the North Korean launch.… Seguir leyendo »
The North Korean long-range rocket that took off from the country’s northwest coast this morning poses a fresh round of searching questions for governments all the way from Beijing to Washington DC. Pyongyang’s second successful launch of a satellite, coming so soon after its fourth nuclear detonation on 6 January, threatens to set the tone for relations around the region for the coming year.
Preparations for the launch were meticulous. Following the blast-off at 9.30am, the state-controlled broadcaster KCTV announced a news bulletin to be shown live at 12.30pm. News of a “complete success” was then duly conveyed by Ri Chun-hee – a famous newscaster – dressed in her trademark bright pink.… Seguir leyendo »
The success of any nuclear framework agreement negotiated by Iran and the P5+1 (United States, Britain, France, Germany, France and Britain) this week ultimately will be determined not by the signing of a final accord in June but by Tehran’s fidelity to nonproliferation in the years and decades to come.
Given Iran’s history of nuclear deception, the gnawing question remains: What if the mullahs attempt to break out and build a bomb? Then what?
“Then what” is not a new nonproliferation concern. Think North Korea. Policymakers in the United States and elsewhere never got a handle on putting Pyongyang’s nuclear genie back in the bottle.… Seguir leyendo »
In his memoirs, former president George W. Bush recounts a story about North Korea and China. In October 2002, he invited China’s then-president, Jiang Zemin, to his Texas ranch. North Korea was developing nuclear weapons, and Bush wanted China’s help. According to Bush, Jiang told him that “North Korea was my problem, not his.” China did nothing.
A few months later, Bush tried a different tack. He told Jiang in January 2003 that if North Korea’s nuclear weapons program continued, the United States would not be able to stop Japan from developing its own nuclear arsenal. Still nothing. A month later he warned China that if the problem was not solved diplomatically he would consider a military strike against North Korea.… Seguir leyendo »
The U.N. Security Council is set to vote this week on a new round of sanctions on North Korea in response to Pyongyang's February nuclear test, and with China's backing, it is likely to pass.
Beijing was "strongly dissatisfied and resolutely opposed" to the nuclear test, as Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said. However, Beijing must walk a fine line in deciding how far it will go to press Pyongyang to change course.
North Korea's nuclear test has again shaken regional stability and undermines China's national interests. China's strategic plan through 2020 is focused on economic development, which requires a stable international environment, particularly among neighboring countries.… Seguir leyendo »
La tercera prueba nuclear de Corea del Norte cambia el juego no sólo para Estados Unidos y Japón, sino también para el último aliado del régimen, China. La reacción oficial china a la última provocación de Corea del Norte fue adusta: China está "fuertemente disconforme y se opone rotundamente" a la prueba, e insta a que se reanuden las conversaciones internacionales. Pero la postura de China no resulta significativamente amenazadora, porque sus líderes no admiten que ya no necesitan sucumbir ante el chantaje de su vecino rebelde.
Al llevar a cabo la prueba, los norcoreanos una vez más pusieron en riesgo los intereses nacionales de China.… Seguir leyendo »
By Anne Applebaum (THE WASHINGTON POST, 17/10/06):
Conventional wisdom says that if U.N. sanctions don't work, there is nothing to be done about North Korea's nuclear weapons -- short of firebombing Pyongyang, thereby ensuring the obliteration of Seoul. Yet the problem of a nuclear North Korea is not actually insoluble, provided a certain very large superpower wants to solve it. There is one significant country, after all, that has the military, economic and political power not only to pressure North Korea to discard its bomb but also to topple its regime altogether.
That very large superpower is, of course, China. Despite its recent expressions of shock and horror -- the Chinese government claimed last week to be "totally opposed" to the North Korean bomb -- China still has more ways to influence North Korea than any other member of the U.N.… Seguir leyendo »
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