Since the start of the war in the Gaza Strip, Iran’s government has sounded bullish, even triumphalist notes. “The Zionist regime’s defeat in this event is not just the defeat of the Zionist regime”, contended Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a speech last month, referencing Israeli setbacks on the battlefield. “It is also the defeat of the U.S”. At the beginning of January, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi boasted that his country’s enemies “can see Iran’s power, and the whole world knows its strength and capabilities”. And a few days later, an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson declared that the so-called axis of resistance—the network of partners and proxies Iran backs across the region—is more “coherent, resilient and united than ever”.… Seguir leyendo »
Is the Biden administration’s strategy on Iran’s nuclear ambitions drifting dangerously from prevention to containment?
Reports are cropping up that the administration and the Iranians are discussing new agreements that would, in theory, seek to limit the Tehran’s nuclear program. While denying any deals are imminent, a senior Biden administration official acknowledged that there have been indirect talks with the Iranian government in Oman.
The Iranians are being less coy. Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, formerly the head of the Foreign Policy and National Security Committee in the Iranian parliament, claims that unwritten understandings have already been reached. The Biden administration “will close its eyes to some of Iran’s energy deals, and [allow] the release of some of Iran’s frozen funds in return for Iran refraining from expanding its nuclear program more than the current level”, he said.… Seguir leyendo »
Rumors are abounding that after 10 months of almost no diplomatic activity, the United States and Iran are close to reaching an informal agreement that will prevent a further escalation between the two. What is on the table is not the renewal of the 2015 nuclear agreement—which remains in a comatose state—but rather an unwritten understanding that neither side will pull the plug on the respirator.
Diplomacy between the United States and Iran has steadily degraded over the years. From the intense and, at times, weekslong direct negotiations that produced the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—a more than 100-page written agreement embodied in a unanimously approved U.N.… Seguir leyendo »
When two UN atomic watchdog inspectors set off for Iran’s Fordow nuclear plant in January, they gave their Iranian counterparts virtually no notice of the impending visit.
It was what the International Atomic Energy Agency terms a routine unscheduled inspection, designed to give staff at one of the Islamic republic’s most secretive facilities as little time as possible to make any alterations to equipment.
On this occasion, they would make an alarming discovery. After the inspectors donned laboratory coats and descended into Fordow, built deep beneath a mountain to protect against US or Israeli bombs, they were immediately given cause for concern.… Seguir leyendo »
It has been exactly five years since former U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran and more than two years since current U.S. President Joe Biden launched his drive to restore it. But despite high hopes, Biden has been unable to resurrect the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or the JCPOA. In part, this is the administration’s failure; in early negotiations, Biden was hesitant to push Congress to back a controversial foreign policy initiative when he needed its support for his domestic agenda. The failure is also a consequence of Iranian obstinacy. As talks dragged on, Tehran threw up roadblocks and made multiple demands—including a guarantee that the next U.S.… Seguir leyendo »
Five years ago on Monday, then-U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a 2015 multilateral agreement that imposed restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program. Although both the Trump and Biden administrations promised to find a better solution, the Iran nuclear crisis has only gotten worse. Economic pressure and external sabotage have not stopped Tehran from steadily increasing its uranium enrichment capabilities. Today, the regime is only weeks, if not days, away from the ability to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon, should it choose to take that step.
Although restoring the JCPOA has become increasingly implausible, understanding how it worked—and what has been lost—is essential for future global nonproliferation efforts.… Seguir leyendo »
When U.S. President Joe Biden assumed office, he was determined to resuscitate the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), from which his predecessor, Donald Trump, had unilaterally withdrawn the United States in 2018. Biden quickly appointed a special envoy to begin negotiations with Tehran and the five great powers that remain party to the agreement: China, France, Germany, Russia, and the United Kingdom. In his first speech before the United Nations, he declared that his administration was “prepared to return to full compliance” and was engaged in diplomacy to persuade Iran to do the same.… Seguir leyendo »
Mientras el mundo libre sigue buscando la forma de derrotar a Rusia en Ucrania, la República Islámica de Irán continúa su carrera imparable hacia la consecución de un viejo sueño, el arma nuclear.
Hace unos días la Agencia Internacional de la Energía Atómica desvelaba que algunas partículas recogidas en la central de Fordow contenían uranio enriquecido al 84,7%. Un nivel de enriquecimiento que podría llevar a Irán a tener el ansiado nivel de 90% en apenas 15 días.
Si bien la noticia ha sobrecogido al mundo, tampoco es una sorpresa, ya que Irán nos tiene acostumbrados a llevar a cabo acciones secretas que acaban con resultados cada vez más cercanos a la proliferación nuclear militar.… Seguir leyendo »
Desde el descubrimiento del programa nuclear de Irán, muchos han apostado por el engagement ("acuerdo") para prevenir que el régimen de los ayatolás alcance sus objetivos. Figuras como Javier Solana, Barack Obama o más recientemente Josep Borrell han abogado por la negociación con Teherán como vía para gestionar sus ambiciones nucleares.
Es cierto que desde los tiempos del sha, Irán aspira al desarrollo de la energía nuclear para poder usar todos sus recursos energéticos fósiles en la exportación. Pero no es menos cierto que las señales que nos llegan desde Irán apuntan a que las intenciones de Teherán respecto a la energía nuclear son más bélicas que civiles.… Seguir leyendo »
Massive anti-regime protests, Iran’s merciless crackdown and its supply of weapons to Russia have left the Islamic Republic more isolated than at any point in decades just as a crisis over its nuclear program is brewing.
The protests rocking the country have posed the most durable and determined threat to the Islamic Republic’s authority since the 2009 Green Movement. Tens of thousands of mostly young people, fronted by women and schoolgirls who reject the compulsory hijab as a symbol of misogyny and broader oppression, have taken to the streets in acts of raw defiance against the regime.
The Iranian government has killed hundreds of people in response, including dozens of children.… Seguir leyendo »
Last month, the Biden administration’s special envoy for Iran said that nuclear talks with Tehran were unlikely to continue anytime soon. “If these negotiations are not happening, it’s because of Iran’s position and everything that has happened since [September]”, said Robert Malley, citing Iran’s crackdown on protests, its transfer of drones to Russia and its continuing imprisonment of American citizens.
His comments, which echoed a widespread unease with Iran in the West, are understandable. And yet none of the issues he cited changes the grim reality that Iran is now just days away from having enough weapons-grade material for a nuclear bomb — and that the international community is doing nothing to stop it.… Seguir leyendo »
La ventana de oportunidad abierta en la primavera del pasado año se ha vuelto a cerrar, arruinando las tenues esperanzas de que pueda volver a firmarse un nuevo acuerdo nuclear entre Irán y el grupo P5+1 (China, EEUU, Francia, Reino Unido y Rusia, más Alemania). Y eso es una pésima noticia.
Joe Biden, al frente de unos EEUU que sigue marcando la pauta hasta hoy, ha dejado pasar una nueva oportunidad para revertir el equivocado rumbo adoptado en mayo de 2018, cuando Donald Trump decidió salirse del acuerdo a pesar de que la Agencia Internacional de la Energía Atómica (AIEA) confirmaba que Irán estaba cumpliendo escrupulosamente con los compromisos asumidos en el marco del Plan de Acción Integral Conjunto (PAIC), firmado en julio de 2015.… Seguir leyendo »
A decade ago, then-Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak would regularly come to Washington and hold high-level meetings with senior officials in the Obama administration. Iran’s nuclear program was the central focus of those meetings, and I recall his frequent admonition: “You say there is time to deal with it, but I fear we will be told this until we are told, ‘it is too late and there is nothing to be done but live with it.’” I was one of those in the U.S. government reassuring him that we would not let this happen.
However, with Rafael Grossi, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), now saying the Iranian nuclear program “is galloping ahead”, I fear that Barak’s words may have been prophetic.… Seguir leyendo »
“Grossi is still the main obstacle to the finalization” of a nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers, proclaimed Nour News, an outlet frequently used by Iran’s supreme leader for unofficial commentary. Rafael Grossi, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), may in fact be the last man standing against a shorter, weaker version of the 2015 nuclear deal that would irreparably harm the nuclear nonproliferation regime. Despite imminent pressure from all sides, including Washington, Grossi is refusing to close his agency’s probe into Tehran’s suspect atomic activities to pave the way for the accord’s revival.
Iran demands the permanent closure of the IAEA’s four-year-old investigation before a new deal can unfold, aiming to keep its nuclear weapons work hidden from the prying eyes of inspectors.… Seguir leyendo »
Desde la revolución que destronó al Sha Reza Palehevi en 1979, Irán es el único país del mundo dirigido por clérigos (si no tenemos en cuenta el Vaticano, que es un estado sui generis), donde religión y política están intrínsecamente unidos. El Presidente actual, elegido en 2021, Ibrahim Raisi lo es, así como el veterano, Líder Supremo de la revolución, Ali Khamenei. El código civil y el código penal de la era anterior, que eran laicos, fueron sustituidos por la sharia o ley islàmica.
Irán es un país con una gran historia, mayoritariamente chií al 90 por ciento, que aspira a a ser la potencia chií líder en el mundo.… Seguir leyendo »
The Iran nuclear deal recently marked its seventh anniversary—but it may well turn out to be its last. Despite a year of negotiations in Vienna, which nearly delivered an agreement on how the United States and Iran would return to full compliance with the nuclear deal, the process is now on the verge of collapse.
All parties to the deal share blame, and they all stand to lose. For the West, there will be a dramatic setback for nonproliferation efforts in the Middle East. The failure of the nuclear deal also risks military escalation in a region playing a crucial role during the global energy crisis triggered by Russia’s war in Ukraine.… Seguir leyendo »
Last month, Iran’s nuclear program entered dangerous new territory: Tehran now possesses enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb. That material, enriched to 60 percent, would need to be further enriched to roughly 90 percent—so-called weapons-grade uranium—before it could be used in a nuclear weapon. But that process, known as “breakout”, will now take just weeks due to Iran’s advances since 2019, when Tehran began casting off the constraints of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal following the U.S. withdrawal from the agreement. Although this action alone would not give Iran a bomb, it is the most important step in building one.… Seguir leyendo »
Since last April, the U.S. has been engaged in indirect negotiations with Iran on restoring the 2015 deal limiting Tehran's nuclear program known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. If these talks succeed, or should they fail, the impact will reverberate across a range of issues beyond the nonproliferation file over which Washington and Tehran are at odds.
When the Trump administration withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, it laid out 12 demands addressing various aspects of Iranian policy it wanted Tehran to change. Of the concerns it identified, three directly dealt with the nuclear program, and one addressed bilateral issues—namely, the release of U.S.… Seguir leyendo »
The Iran nuclear negotiations in Vienna, aimed at resurrecting the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) after President Trump’s 2018 withdrawal, have entered their eighth round. After a number of delays and disagreements, the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia and China (known as the P5+1) and Iran, led by the new Raisi administration, finally appear to be making progress at the technical level. This is partly due to Russia and China helping to steer Iran back to what had already been agreed and partly because the so-called Plan B scenarios remain so unappealing to all parties.
The JCPOA is a hugely complex, 154-page technical agreement.… Seguir leyendo »
Tous les problèmes dans les affaires internationales n’ont pas de solutions que les parties concernées sont prêtes à poursuivre dans le temps et de la manière nécessaires pour réussir. Le problème du nucléaire iranien avait trouvé une solution via l’Accord de Vienne (JCPOA) de 2015. Il n’était pas parfait, mais il avait permis de stabiliser la situation en empêchant l’Iran d’avoir des armes nucléaires, jusqu’à ce qu’il soit mis à terre par le président Donald Trump et ses partisans en mai 2018. Désormais, l’ombre d’une crise nucléaire pointe de nouveau à l’horizon avec peu d’espoir d’issue.
Pour comprendre pourquoi la crise semble politiquement impossible à résoudre, il faut considérer les perspectives des trois antagonistes.… Seguir leyendo »
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