However Russia decides to react to the ongoing spat between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the consequences for the Kremlin’s goals in the Middle East will be negative.
On the one hand, keeping quiet would affect the dynamics of Russian−Iranian relations that had been on the rise. Moscow invested diplomatic and economic effort in improving the dialogue with Tehran, including the opening of a credit line. It cannot afford to lose these dividends considering Russia’s economic dire straits. The Russian authorities are desperate to retain Iran within its sphere of influence and avoid any drift westwards. Without Iranian ground forces fighting the opponents of the Assad regime, it will be difficult for Moscow to attain its goals in Syria − Russia needs Iran’s military and political support to compel the Syrian opposition and its sponsors to negotiate with Bashar al-Assad.… Seguir leyendo »
El reciente aumento de las tensiones entre Irán y Arabia Saudí ha vuelto a centrar nuestra atención en la rivalidad de estas dos potencias de Oriente Medio. Su enemistad viene de lejos pero, a diferencia de lo que se señala en muchas ocasiones, no es secular. Durante años mantuvieron, pese a sus diferencias, una relación fluida articulada por intereses comunes. Hoy, tras la ruptura de las relaciones diplomáticas entre ellos, la vuelta a la cooperación se vislumbra lejana y difícil, pero no imposible.
La religión imperante en cada uno de los países no ha sido siempre un elemento de confrontación, aunque sí ha sido esencial para diferenciar sus identidades.… Seguir leyendo »
The sectarian lens provides a convenient and easy prism to understand the ongoing Saudi-Iranian standoff. But it produces, at best, an incomplete picture.
Yes, the majority of Saudis are practitioners of Sunni Islam and the majority of Iranians Shias, but deep-seated historical tensions between the two groups is not what is at the heart of the Saudi-Iranian rivalry, nor is it the cause of recent escalations.
At heart, the tensions are about regional competition where both countries are trying to contain the other’s influence throughout the wider Middle East. Conveniently the sectarian narrative suits the interests of elites in Tehran and Riyadh seeking to distract their populations from domestic crises of governance.… Seguir leyendo »
The world will soon celebrate the implementation of the landmark agreement that resolves the unnecessary, albeit dangerous, crisis over Iran’s nuclear program. All parties hoped, and continue to believe, that the resolution of the nuclear issue would enable us to focus on the serious challenge of extremism that is ravaging our region — and the world.
President Rouhani has repeatedly declared that Iran’s top foreign policy priority is friendship with our neighbors, peace and stability in the region and global cooperation, especially in the fight against extremism. In September 2013, a month after taking office, he introduced an initiative called World Against Violence and Extremism (WAVE).… Seguir leyendo »
La ruptura de las relaciones diplomáticas entre Irán y Arabia Saudita es un punto de inflexión peligroso en una región ya inestable y desgarrada por la guerra. El disparador fue la ejecución por parte de Arabia Saudita de Nimr al-Nimr, un jeque chiita agitador que había reclamado el fin de la monarquía en el país. Pero la ruptura tiene sus raíces en una rivalidad estratégica que se extiende por todo Oriente Medio.
Las tensiones entre los dos países se remontan a muchas décadas, pero se volvieron especialmente agudas después de la Revolución Islámica de Irán en 1979. El líder de la revolución, el ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, no ocultaba su desprecio por la familia real saudita; rápidamente posicionó a Irán como un defensor de "los oprimidos" contra "las fuerzas de la arrogancia" -Estados Unidos y sus aliados locales, Arabia Saudita e Israel.… Seguir leyendo »
Why did Saudi Arabia execute Shi’ite cleric Nimr al-Nimr now?
The Saudis have had Nimr in custody since 2012, sentencing him to death in 2014. The cleric has been a vocal critic of Saudi Arabia’s ruling royal family for years, going as far as threatening Shi’ite secession in the minority’s eastern homeland in 2009.
Saturday’s execution of Nimr, alongside 46 others, mostly al Qaeda members, sparked a crisis with Iran. Protesters in Tehran set the Saudi embassy on fire, and the Iranian government threatened “divine revenge” against the kingdom. Riyadh severed diplomatic and commercial ties with Tehran, and Saudi allies Bahrain, Sudan and the United Arab Emirates filed diplomatic protests.… Seguir leyendo »
Saudi Arabia’s execution on Jan. 2 of an outspoken Shi’ite cleric who called for the overthrow of the Saudi royal family triggered international condemnation and set off protests throughout the Middle East. Demonstrators stormed the Saudi embassy in Tehran and set the building on fire. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ratcheted up the rhetoric, declaring: “God’s hand of retaliation will grip the neck of Saudi leaders”. By Jan. 3, the kingdom cut off diplomatic relations with Iran, a move followed by several Saudi allies.
How did the execution of a cleric escalate so quickly into a diplomatic crisis between two regional rivals that have been fighting a cold war for over a decade?… Seguir leyendo »
The execution of Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr in Saudi Arabia at the weekend has triggered a predictable diplomatic crisis.
Iran immediately condemned the move, the Saudi Embassy in Tehran was attacked by angry demonstrators, and Saudi Arabia then severed diplomatic ties with the country. On Monday, Bahrain, Sudan and the United Arab Emirates followed suit. Yet despite the war of words, it is important to remember that this crisis is merely a microcosm of a wider geopolitical chess game between Saudi Arabia and Iran. And it might also need some outside help to prevent it escalating further.
Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia must have known that the execution of a senior Shia cleric would exacerbate existing grievances within the region, especially with Shia-dominated Iran.… Seguir leyendo »
Any hope that 2016 would bring some degree of peace to the Middle East has been shattered by the events of the past few days.
Saudi Arabia's announcement on Saturday that it had executed 47 people, including the well-known Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, has led to a further deterioration in Saudi-Iranian relations -- and a widening of the chasm between Sunni and Shia Muslims throughout the region.
Demonstrations in Tehran over the executions led to the sacking of the Saudi Embassy by some protesters on Saturday, and, 24 hours later, the breaking of diplomatic relations by Saudi Arabia. The Saudi announcement was followed by two other Arab countries, Bahrain and Sudan, likewise breaking diplomatic relations with Iran.… Seguir leyendo »
When Saudi Arabia executed the Shiite cleric and political dissident Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr on Saturday, the country’s leaders were aware that doing so would upset their longtime rivals in Iran. In fact, the royal court in Riyadh was probably counting on it. It got what it wanted. The deterioration of relations has been precipitous: Protesters in Tehran sacked Saudi Arabia’s embassy; in retaliation, Saudi Arabia severed diplomatic ties. More severe fallout could follow — possibly even war.
Why did Saudi Arabia want this now? Because the kingdom is under pressure: Oil prices, on which the economy depends almost entirely, are plummeting; a thaw in Iranian-American relations threatens to diminish Riyadh’s special place in regional politics; the Saudi military is failing in its war in Yemen.… Seguir leyendo »
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