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Last month, Lebanon’s prime minister, Saad Hariri, resigned in Saudi Arabia — only to later rescind his resignation. This sparked fear of a Saudi-backed war against Hezbollah, Iran’s Lebanese ally. Riyadh has few local military assets to confront the Shiite movement but could strangle Lebanon’s small open economy. Lebanon is deeply reliant on capital inflows from the Gulf. The immediate crisis of Hariri’s premiership is over, but Lebanese economic dependency persists. It is dangerous if the country must stay in Riyadh’s political good grace to avoid economic crisis.

Three Gulf countries accounted for 76 percent of new foreign direct investment projects in Lebanon from 2003 to 2015.…  Seguir leyendo »

Nearly two weeks after the double political explosion that rocked Riyadh, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman appears to be doing damage control in ways that may help stabilize Saudi Arabia and the region.

The first bombshell in the Saudi capital was the Nov. 4 arrests on corruption charges of 201 prominent Saudis, including princes and government ministers. Now MBS, as the 32-year-old crown prince is known, is beginning a resolution process that may settle many of these cases out of court.

A senior Saudi official told me Thursday that the kingdom’s anti-corruption commission would follow the standard “plea-bargain process” that is “usually conducted by the public prosecutor prior to transferring a case to the relevant court.”…  Seguir leyendo »

A en croire les déclarations des responsables saoudiens, comme les analyses de la presse saoudienne et de celles du Golfe, la démission forcée de Saad Hariri visait à créer un choc salutaire. En sortant le principal leader de la communauté sunnite du gouvernement libanais, l’Arabie pousserait les sunnites, gonflés à bloc par un soutien saoudien réitéré avec éclats, à choisir la confrontation avec la communauté chiite, et plus spécifiquement le Hezbollah.

On se rappelle que le Hezbollah et le Courant du futur (parti de Hariri) étaient arrivés, il y a un an, à un accord établissant lignes de partage du pouvoir et seuils d’influence au Liban.…  Seguir leyendo »

Former Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri is being held by Saudi authorities under what Lebanese sources say amounts to house arrest in Riyadh, apparently as part of the Saudi campaign to squeeze Iran and its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah.

A startling account of Hariri’s forced detention was provided Friday by knowledgeable sources in Beirut. It offers important new evidence of the tactics used by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to bolster his rule by mobilizing anti-Iran sentiment at home and abroad.

Rumors of the virtual kidnapping of Hariri, who resigned as prime minister last Saturday while in Saudi Arabia, have rocked the Arab world; Lebanese officials worry that MBS, as the 32-year-old crown prince is known, wants to force Lebanon into his confrontation with Iran.…  Seguir leyendo »

Lundi et mardi 30 et 31 octobre. Saad Hariri, Premier ministre sunnite du Liban, allié de l’Occident et de l’Arabie Saoudite, est en visite à Riyad. Mercredi, de retour à Beyrouth, il annonce le maintien du soutien saoudien au gouvernement libanais. La formation de ce dernier fin 2016 avait mis fin à deux ans et demi d’une crise institutionnelle aiguë et d’un bras de fer entre sunnites et chiites qui avaient fait craindre une dégradation dangereuse de la sécurité dans le pays. Avec l’élection du président chrétien Michel Aoun, les tensions confessionnelles avaient significativement baissé et le gouvernement, mené par Hariri, avait enfin la possibilité de réaliser des avancées politiques et économiques.…  Seguir leyendo »

Lebanon was stunned when Prime Minister Saad Hariri, speaking from Saudi Arabia, announced his resignation. Credit Mohamed Azakir/Reuters

Lebanon was stunned on Nov. 4 when its prime minister, Saad Hariri, speaking from Saudi Arabia, delivered a halting resignation speech. Mr. Hariri said he left Beirut because he feared assassination. He placed the blamed for his long-distance resignation on Iran and its main ally in Lebanon, Hezbollah.

In the days since, Saudi Arabia has accused Hezbollah of plotting against the kingdom and ordered Saudi citizens to leave Lebanon. Threats from top Saudi officials are causing new turmoil in a tiny country with complicated sectarian politics, failed power-sharing arrangements and a long history of foreign meddling.

Since the Arab uprisings in 2011, Lebanon has largely avoided the conflicts sweeping the Middle East.…  Seguir leyendo »

Volatility is rising across the Middle East as local, regional and international conflicts increasingly intertwine and amplify each other. Four Crisis Group analysts give a 360-degree view of the new risks of overlapping conflicts that involve Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Lebanon and Israel.

On 4 November 2017, Huthi/Saleh forces in Yemen fired a Burkan 2-H long-range ballistic missile at the Saudi capital, Riyadh. It was intercepted and destroyed before reaching its target. The attack occurred during a profound political shakeup in Saudi Arabia, where Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is seeking to consolidate power, and amid dramatic Saudi political manoeuvrings in the region which led to the resignation of Lebanon’s prime minister, Saad Hariri. Adding to the volatility, Israel has been making veiled – and not so veiled – threats about its intent to prevent Hizbollah from developing an indigenous capacity to build sophisticated precision missiles.…  Seguir leyendo »