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A Russian Navy amphibious landing ship near Kerch, Crimea, July 2023. Alexey Pavlishak / Reuters

When Russia annexed Crimea in February 2014, the peninsula became crucial to Moscow’s strategy to dominate Ukraine and the Black Sea region. Critical to that domination is the bridge spanning the Kerch Strait, the narrow strip of water that separates Crimea from mainland Russia. Built by Moscow at enormous cost, this bridge opened in 2018 to great fanfare. Since then, it has been a major conduit for the transportation of Russian soldiers and arms required for the war in Ukraine.

The bridge is currently under Russian control and is of fundamental importance to the Russian war effort. It may, however, prove to be the key to Ukraine’s victory—not just in Crimea but in the wider conflict.…  Seguir leyendo »

A worker adjusts lights above a tourist map of Ukraine at the Ukraine stand of the ITB International Travel Trade Fair in Berlin March 4, 2014. JOHN MACDOUGALL/AFP via Getty Images

Clear differences are emerging within the Ukrainian government as to whether Ukraine should make the reconquest of Crimea a nonnegotiable goal of its war effort or be prepared to trade at least provisional Russian control of the peninsula for Russian concessions elsewhere. This issue also has the potential to create a deep split between Kyiv and Western governments, which fear that Crimea and control of the strategically vital military base of Sevastopol might be the point on which Moscow would be willing to escalate toward nuclear war. The question is becoming more urgent as Ukraine prepares for an offensive that could potentially allow it to cut the land route between Russia and Crimea.…  Seguir leyendo »

The site of the MH17 Malaysia Airlines plane crash in Donetsk, July 17, 2014. Maxim Zmeyev/Reuters

On July 17, 2014, several weeks after “little green men” had started to occupy Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, I rushed into the management offices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, located in Kyiv, as word spread over social media that the unthinkable had happened.

A passenger plane – Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 – enroute from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur had been shot down over the territory controlled by Russian-backed separatists.

As the OSCE’s spokesperson in Ukraine at the time, I quickly realized that because we were the only international entity with access to the area, we would soon be tasked with rushing to the crash site – and reporting to the world what was transpiring.…  Seguir leyendo »

A Russian flag flies near a convoy of pro-Russian forces moving from the front line near the eastern Ukrainian city of Starobeshevo in Donetsk region in February 2015. (Vasily Maximov/AFP/Getty Images)

Many analysts have worried in recent weeks about a large buildup of Russian military forces along the Ukrainian border. Russian troops have gathered in areas near the ongoing conflict in the Donbas, and some troops relocated to Crimea. Amid border skirmishes, warnings from the Kremlin and escalating rhetoric on Russian state-owned media, what’s going on?

Some experts speculate that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be seeking a confrontation with Ukraine to bolster his position at home. Reports from Russia show personal support for Putin softening, and his unpopular ruling party faces elections in September.

However, the data suggest it may be hard for Putin to use foreign policy to rally support for military intervention.…  Seguir leyendo »

People attend a demonstration of military equipment and hardware on the Defender of the Fatherland Day in Sevastopol, Crimea, on Feb. 23. (Alexey Pavlishak/Reuters)

Wednesday is the sixth anniversary of Russia’s annexation of Crimea. After a hastily organized and deeply contentious referendum on March 16, 2014, following Russia’s military occupation of the peninsula, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a treaty of accession with Crimean leaders in Moscow two days later.

An avalanche of international criticism followed. Analysts pointed out that this was the first annexation by one state of the territory of a neighboring state on the European continent since World War II. In the United Nations, 100 countries condemned the unauthorized referendum and affirmed their support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

In Crimea itself, the annexation was popular, especially among Crimea’s large population of older ethnic Russians.…  Seguir leyendo »

Ending Crimea’s Isolation

Once a peninsula, Crimea has become an island. For nearly two years, the territory has been unrecognized, cut off from the mainland by a militarized border, embargoed and mostly forgotten by the international community and the media. The early optimism of some Crimeans that Russia would quickly integrate the peninsula and turn it into a showcase territory has evaporated.

Last year, the Russian writer Leonid Kaganov said that the annexation of Crimea was like stealing an expensive cellphone without its charger. He was proved right. The full scale of Crimea’s isolation became apparent recently: On Nov. 22, Ukrainian nationalists and Crimean Tatar activists sabotaged four power lines feeding Crimea with electricity from Ukraine, plunging the peninsula — and its two million residents — into darkness.…  Seguir leyendo »

A pro-Russian separatist holds a stuffed toy found at the crash site of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, near the settlement of Grabovo in the Donetsk region, July 18, 2014. REUTERS/Maxim Zmeyev

One year ago, Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 was shot out of the sky over the war zone in eastern Ukraine, and one year later we are closer than ever to proving who is ultimately responsible for this tragic act.

I have been compiling and analyzing information gathered over the last 12 months by field reporters and bloggers, statements from the Russian and Ukrainian governments, and the investigations launched by various government and non-government agencies, including the official inquiries of the Dutch Safety Board. The goal is to find and address similarities and discrepancies, and to use new information to verify or debunk parts of the narrative put forth by either the Ukrainian or Russian governments.…  Seguir leyendo »

The one-year anniversary of the tragic shooting down of Flight MH17 over Ukraine is an opportunity to take stock of the costs of Europe's latest, biggest, and apparently most intractable security crisis.

Twelve months after Russia-backed separatists were first accused of shooting down the Malaysia Airlines passenger jet, Europe's relations with Russia -- having advanced by leaps and bounds over nearly three decades since the fall of the Iron Curtain -- have again descended into deep distrust and hostility.

European leaders, initially knocked off balance by Russia's annexation of Crimea and cascading outbreaks of violence in eastern Ukraine, found new resolve when nearly 300 passengers, many of them EU citizens, became victims of the conflict.…  Seguir leyendo »

A woman with a boy looks at a tank as it drives through the settlement Khutor Chkalova on its way to the Russian military training ground ‘Kuzminsky’ on the Russians side of the border with Ukraine, May 26, 2015. REUTERS/Maria Tsvetkova

Karl-Georg Wellmann, a representative in the German parliament, flew to Moscow Sunday night on a behind-the-scenes mission to help break the deadlock in eastern Ukraine. But when Wellmann landed at Sheremetyevo Airport, border officials denied him entry, without any explanation, until 2019. Wellmann, a member of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, had to spend the night in a transit lounge and was escorted onto the first flight home the next morning.

Wellmann raised a storm in German and Russian media, and Merkel’s government lodged an official complaint with the Kremlin. Although he was known as a critic of Russia’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict, Wellmann said he had been invited by Konstantin Kosachyov, chairman of the Russian Federation Council’s committee on foreign affairs, and Sergei Glazyev, an adviser to President Vladimir Putin.…  Seguir leyendo »

Save the New Ukraine

A new Ukraine was born a year ago in the pro-European protests that helped to drive President Viktor F. Yanukovych from power. And today, the spirit that inspired hundreds of thousands to gather in the Maidan, Kiev’s Independence Square, is stronger than ever, even as it is under direct military assault from Russian forces supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine.

The new Ukraine seeks to become the opposite of the old Ukraine, which was demoralized and riddled with corruption. The transformation has been a rare experiment in participatory democracy; a noble adventure of a people who have rallied to open their nation to modernity, democracy and Europe.…  Seguir leyendo »

Hace un año nació una nueva Ucrania en la plaza de Maidan. Hoy, el espíritu que movió a millones de ucranios a congregarse allí es más fuerte que nunca.

La nueva Ucrania parece estar convirtiéndose en todo lo contrario de la vieja Ucrania, que era un país desmoralizado y plagado de corrupción.

La transformación ha sido un increíble experimento de democracia participativa; la aventura noble y admirable de un pueblo que se ha unido para abrir las puertas de su país a la modernidad, la democracia y Europa; y el movimiento no ha hecho más que empezar.

Lo que hace que este sea un experimento extraordinario es que no solo encuentra su forma de expresión en la lucha, sino también en un esfuerzo de creación; no solo en la oposición, sino en la construcción nacional.…  Seguir leyendo »

Al invadir a Ucrania en 2014, la Rusia del Presidente Vladimir Putin ha lanzado un desafío fundamental a los valores y los principios con los que se fundó la Unión Europea y al sistema, basado en normas, que ha mantenido la paz en Europa desde 1945. Ni los dirigentes de Europa ni sus ciudadanos son plenamente conscientes del alcance de dicho desafío y mucho menos de cómo abordarlo.

El régimen de Putin está basado en el imperio de la fuerza, manifestado en la represión en su país y en la agresión en el exterior, pero ha conseguido una ventaja táctica, al menos a corto plazo, sobre la UE y los Estados Unidos, que están decididos a evitar una confrontación militar.…  Seguir leyendo »

En 2014, Vladimir Putin descubrió a su Trotski interno; Lo que ahora el presidente ruso ofrece Ucrania es un giro perverso de la fórmula proclamada por Trotski durante las negociaciones de paz de 1918 en Brest-Litovsk: «No hay paz sin guerra». Con ello, Putin no solo ha actuado para dejar a mi país atrapado en un conflicto helado que evitará tanto que la democracia como la economía florezcan; ha destruido las reglas y normas que mantuvieron la paz en Europa durante tres generaciones.

Nadie debe creer que el Protocolo de Minsk –acordado en septiembre por representantes de Ucrania, Rusia y los militantes armados con respaldo del Kremlin en las ciudades orientales de Donetsk y Lugansk– ha sido el primer paso de un regreso a la normalidad en Ucrania o Europa.…  Seguir leyendo »

Cuando este año Rusia se anexó Crimea y comenzó a intervenir en el este de Ucrania, Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea respondieron dictando sanciones contra personas y empresas rusas. Pero para que sean una herramienta eficaz contra las ambiciones de Vladímir Putin (tema de debate actual en Occidente), deben combinar la firmeza hacia el presidente de Rusia con la apertura hacia su pueblo.

Para comprender de qué manera las sanciones pueden ayudar a contener al Kremlin, basta considerar la importancia del dinero para su ocupante. Desde el comienzo del siglo y hasta hace muy poco, Rusia estuvo inundada de petrodólares, y a medida que aumentaba el flujo de divisas, otro tanto hacían el descaro y la agresividad de Putin.…  Seguir leyendo »

Mapa de Ucrania

Resumen1

El presente documento pretende realizar un análisis pormenorizado de la "crisis ucraniana" con la perspectiva que nos brinda la distancia temporal, del "año después", de los acontecimientos que surgieron en torno al Maidan en Kiev. Al estudio contextual contemporáneo se le ha agregado una semblanza histórica que ayuda a comprender la encrucijada dialéctica sobre la que se apoya la crisis. Merece especial atención el modelo expansivo sobre el que gravita la política exterior del Kremlin, que ha problematizado su encuadre jurídico, por lo que se propone una catalogación referencial a las llamadas zonas buffer que le han procurado indudables enclaves geopolíticos.…  Seguir leyendo »

En el enfrentamiento de Europa con Rusia por Ucrania, las debilidades y divisiones en la política europea han sido tan alentadoras para el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, como lo fue el abordaje vacilante de Estados Unidos en cuanto a Siria. Si Europa va a actuar de forma responsable, tres conceptos claves deben definir su política con relación a Rusia: firmeza, claridad, y voluntad para encontrar un consenso aceptable.

Sin firmeza, nada es posible. Sin duda, Europa y EE.UU. cometieron errores tras el colapso de la Unión Soviética. En particular, se puede acusar a EE.UU. de actuar con arrogancia y de humillar innecesariamente a Rusia.…  Seguir leyendo »

La Russie défie aujourd’hui l’existence même de l’Europe, sans que les Européens et leurs dirigeants en aient pleinement conscience. L’Europe et l’Amérique – chacune pour des raisons qui leur sont propres – sont déterminées à éviter toute confrontation militaire directe avec la Russie. Or, la Russie du président Vladimir Poutine sait tirer parti de cette réticence. Violant ses obligations en vertu des traités, la Russie a décidé d’annexer la Crimée et d’établir des enclaves séparatistes dans l’est de l’Ukraine.

En septembre, le président ukrainien Petro Porochenko a reçu un accueil très enthousiaste du Congrès américain. Dans son discours, il a demandé la livraison d’armes défensives «à la fois létales et non létales».…  Seguir leyendo »

On peut comprendre les difficultés éprouvées par l’opinion publique occidentale et l’Otan pour qualifier les actions de la Russie après l’occupation de la Crimée : ce pays ne se comporte pas comme un Etat qui partagerait les notions de paix et de souveraineté communes aux autres peuples. Sans déclaration de guerre, abritée derrière des terroristes formés dans des camps militaires, la Russie a envahi un Etat et s’est obstinée à le nier. Ainsi se comportent des bandits pour s’approprier le bien d’autrui.

Cette «guerre scythe» de Poutine a semé le trouble chez les Occidentaux. Pourtant, Poutine et ses hommes de main agissent conformément aux normes sociales et morales mises en place en Russie au cours des quinze dernières années et qui fondent le consensus national : la conquête de la Crimée et la guerre en Ukraine ont suscité chez 84% de Russes (1) une explosion de patriotisme pour le régime le plus corrompu qu’ait jamais connu la Russie.…  Seguir leyendo »

Raised in New Jersey, Estonia’s President Toomas Hendrik Ilves does not mince words when it comes to the situation in Ukraine and the threat Russia poses to his country and the region. He took time last week to speak with The Post’s Lally Weymouth. Excerpts:

Q. What do you think of the situation in Ukraine?

A. The issue is not just Ukraine — it is the entire post-World War II order, which is under question. The Helsinki Final Act forbade border changes through aggression and says explicitly that no such change in borders would be recognized.

[This] was already annulled by the [Russian] attack on Georgia in 2008.…  Seguir leyendo »

When Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko visits Washington on Thursday, he will almost certainly again ask for U.S. military assistance, including defensive weapons. President Barack Obama should say yes. Arming Kiev can deter Russian Vladimir Putin from further aggression and support the fragile Ukraine ceasefire and settlement process. Doing so would also bolster U.S. efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation.

Ukrainian counterattacks started making headway in the summer. Russia responded by supplying heavy weapons to the separatists -- including, it is widely believed, the Buk anti-aircraft system believed to have shot down Malaysia Airlines flight 17 in mid-July.

Despite the influx of arms, Ukrainian forces continued to make progress.…  Seguir leyendo »