In January 2024 the head of the British Army, General Sir Patrick Sanders, queried whether the world is at a 1938 moment.
He is not alone in making such linkages to the past or raising questions about the state of Britain’s armed forces today. Grant Shapps, Britain’s Defence Secretary, echoed his sentiments in a speech shortly afterwards. A month later, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Chief of the Defence Staff, appeared to play down the issue.
Both Sanders and Shapps called for a significant increase in defence spending. Others have called on the British government to bring forward its commitment to increase defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP immediately.… Seguir leyendo »
Vivimos en un mundo agitado. La agresión a Ucrania es la máxima expresión de esa agitación, en un panorama mundial donde surge un nuevo equilibrio de poder con nuevos actores con voluntad de desempeñar un papel global. En ese proceso de reconfiguración la supuesta supremacía de occidente está siendo contestada.
La guerra ha mostrado la escasa preparación de occidente para afrontar un conflicto mayor. Las políticas seguidas desde el final de la guerra fría para cobrar los dividendos de la paz han llegado a su límite. La realidad se ha impuesto y ha llevado a un cambio de mentalidad social y política sobre el gasto en defensa.… Seguir leyendo »
There are two ways to think about Japan’s announcement this month that it will surge defense spending by more than 50 percent in the next five years and acquire advanced missiles that can strike the Eurasian mainland. The first is that it’s a victory for the U.S.-led world order, because China’s military advantage in the Western Pacific will narrow. The darker version is that it’s a recognition of the failure of the U.S.-led order, which aimed to suppress military competition in East Asia after World War II.
Both the optimistic and pessimistic perspectives reflect important realities, and history will decide which was more apt.… Seguir leyendo »
On December 16, Japan took a major step toward becoming a “normal” world power by approving dramatic changes to its decades-old policy of military restraint. Under its new national security strategy, Japan will not only double its military spending, adding some $315 billion to its defense budget over the next five years. It will also develop a new “counterstrike” capability enabling it to conduct retaliatory attacks on enemy territory—a remarkable departure from its previous policy.
These moves signal a profound transformation. For years, observers of international relations have noted that Japan certainly has the demographic, economic, and technological potential to be a great power: it plays a prominent role in global governance, development, and many other aspects of international politics.… Seguir leyendo »
Japan announced on Friday that it plans to double its defense spending by 2027. That’s good. We will need it if the United States and its democratic allies are to contain China’s aggression.
Japan has long punched below its weight in global affairs. Despite its massive economy, still the world’s third largest, its tiny military has hobbled its ability to project power.
This was by design. Due to Japan’s humiliating defeat in World War II, combined with its neighbors’ resentment stemming from its aggressive war of conquest, the island nation adopted a pacifist sentiment that persists to this day. Even during the Cold War, Japan spent only about 1 percent of its gross domestic product on self-defense forces.… Seguir leyendo »
ES evidente que en España no existe lo que se denomina «conciencia de Defensa». Me refiero a que una inmensa mayoría de españoles no sabe ni lo que significa. Sobre todo porque, como dijo el jefe del Estado Mayor de la Defensa (Jemad) en su comparecencia ante la Comisión de Defensa del Congreso hace unos días, es un grave problema que los españoles no perciban que estamos amenazados. Y alguien preguntará, ¿y por quién? Por multitud de factores. Entre ellos por la lucha por los recursos naturales, las diferencias sociales y religiosas, las brutales diferencias económicas entre naciones y continentes, las reivindicaciones territoriales, el crecimiento del populismo y de los extremismos, las migraciones masivas, la amenaza del salafismo yihadista, la criminalidad organizada, las guerras asimétricas, la lucha por disponer de los avances tecnológicos, la amenaza latente de países de nuestro propio entorno…
¿Son éstas suficientes muestras de que sí existen amenazas que pueden suponer para España graves riesgos?… Seguir leyendo »
Las agendas electorales en España suelen pasar de puntillas por las cuestiones de Defensa, pero en las próximas elecciones generales del 20-D, los responsables de campaña tendrán que proponer algo, y distinto de lo habitual, sobre la política de Defensa. Existen varias razones. Primero, porque el próximo Gobierno se va a encontrar un problema de seguridad que no ha tenido ninguno en democracia. La acumulación de factores de riesgo al Sur: estados débiles, insurgencia, tráficos ilícitos, radicalización, migraciones o la proliferación de grupos yihadistas leales al autodenominado Estado Islámico (Daesh/ISIS) constituye una amenaza a los intereses vitales españoles, tal y como reconoce la Estrategia de Seguridad Nacional de 2013.… Seguir leyendo »
Tema: Los presupuestos de defensa experimentan una tensión estructural entre su finalidad, las amenazas y riesgos que protegen, y la percepción política y social de esa necesidad, lo que obliga a justificar no sólo su volumen total sino los criterios de asignación.
Resumen: Los presupuestos de defensa han entrado en un proceso de revisión en el que se sopesan sus distintos componentes. Los criterios dependen de la posición de cada país en el contexto internacional, su cultura estratégica, los recursos económicos disponibles, los riesgos existentes y previsibles o los niveles de seguridad que desea alcanzar. En este ARI se argumenta que la revisión de los criterios en España debe orientarse a elaborar un presupuesto estable, evitando las fluctuaciones que se vienen observando, y conocido, ajustando el presupuesto inicial con el gasto efectivamente realizado.… Seguir leyendo »
On March 14, China completed the transition of its new leader, Xi Jinping, with his assumption of the presidency. His main power comes as the leader of the Communist Party and as chairman of its Central Military Commission. While trying to project his image as a “man of the people,” his various speeches on “the China Dream” have a definite military overtone, even though he professes to continue the peaceful development policies of his predecessor. He has launched a well-planned campaign to enhance the military force of the People’s Liberation Army in order to give China the capability to “fight and win wars.”… Seguir leyendo »
Tema: La reducción de los presupuestos de defensa afecta no sólo a las capacidades de las Fuerzas Armadas, sino al futuro de las empresas que forman la base industrial y tecnológica de la defensa.
Resumen: Las variaciones presupuestarias de defensa afectan positiva o negativamente según su sentido a las industrias que se relacionan con el Ministerio de Defensa. En las circunstancias actuales, y debido a la crisis financiera, las reducciones presupuestarias que se venían produciendo se han acelerado drásticamente, por lo que su impacto es ya no sólo incremental sino que pone la continuidad del negocio del sector industrial y tecnológico en una situación de riesgo.… Seguir leyendo »
AMERICA’S fiscal woes are placing the country on a path of growing strategic risk in Asia.
With Democrats eager to protect social spending and Republicans anxious to avoid tax hikes, and both saying the national debt must be brought under control, we can expect sustained efforts to slash the defense budget. Over the next 10 years, cuts in planned spending could total half a trillion dollars. Even as the Pentagon saves money by pulling back from Afghanistan and Iraq, there will be fewer dollars with which to buy weapons or develop new ones.
Unfortunately, those constraints are being imposed just as America faces a growing strategic challenge.… Seguir leyendo »
Today the government will officially announce the go-ahead to build the Queen Elizabeth and the Prince of Wales, two new aircraft carriers, the biggest and most expensive ships in the long history of the Royal Navy. They are due to enter service in 2014 and 2016, and are estimated to cost £3.9bn. That does not include the multibillion cost of equipping the ships with US Joint Strike Fighters. But, as ministers will doubtless point out, the deal should guarantee thousands of jobs at English and Scottish shipyards for years to come.
While the navy is purring over the prospect of sailing large new carriers, a new fleet of destroyers, and nuclear-armed Trident submarines, and the RAF gets 144 long-delayed and increasingly costly Eurofighter/Typhoon jets, with the prospect of 88 more, the army is desperate.… Seguir leyendo »
From August 10 the Ministry of Defence imposed a gagging order on the Armed Services. Members of the Forces are no longer allowed to discuss any matters relating to defence through any public means of communication. They cannot speak at public meetings, write letters to the press, write blogs or even take part in surveys. This gagging order applies to men and women of all ranks.
Can I ask two questions: Why now? For whose benefit? The new censorship is a reaction to low morale in the Services, which extends from top to bottom, from general to private. The people protected are the politicians, who are responsible for the crisis in morale.… Seguir leyendo »
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