Hasta la madrugada del domingo no hemos conocido el resultado final de las elecciones celebradas en Irlanda del Norte el pasado jueves. La lentitud del escrutinio se debe al llamado sistema de voto único transferible que ordena sucesivas preferencias y obligó a contar hasta 13 veces en alguna mesa, aunque puede servir como metáfora del resultado mismo y la conveniencia de evitar conclusiones apresuradas sobre un supuesto seísmo político que fuera a precipitar una inminente unificación de la isla. Sí, la victoria del Sinn Féin tiene relevancia histórica y los partidos unionistas continúan su declive gradual (algo menos del 45% de apoyo cuando en los años setenta superaban el 70%), pero siguen estando por delante de los nacionalistas (que rondan el 40%) sin que haya cambiado el equilibrio relativo entre bandos con respecto a 2017.… Seguir leyendo »
The Irish taoiseach, Micheál Martin, put it politely. It would be “undemocratic” for the Democratic Unionist party to refuse to form an executive in Belfast after the elections, he said. But the DUP will refuse to enter an executive, now that Sinn Féin has massively outpolled it, and a majority of Northern Ireland’s people has voted to have as first minister a republican whose party wants a united Ireland. Sinn Féin gained an astonishing 29% of first preference votes in Thursday’s assembly elections. The DUP got 21.3%, a drop of 6.7% on its last performance.
That refusal, ostensibly a protest over the Northern Ireland protocol, will be even further good news for an already jubilant Sinn Féin, because it proves definitively to its voters that Northern Ireland, set up 101 years ago to be an exclusively unionist state, is incapable of becoming a pluralist one and must therefore be brought to an end.… Seguir leyendo »
Britain’s election results seem to point in two very different directions. The headline result is that Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party has won a smashing victory against Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party, clearing the way for Britain’s exit from the European Union. This would seem like good news for British nationalists, who have treated the E.U. as an enemy for decades.
Yet this victory may weaken the political fabric of the United Kingdom. Scottish nationalists did extraordinarily well, too, while for the first time, more nationalist members of Parliament (who want a united Ireland) have been elected in Northern Ireland than unionist MPs (who want the union with Great Britain to continue).… Seguir leyendo »
At some point in every election campaign every candidate forms a view that they are going to win. This syndrome, known as candidatitis, is capable of moving even the most rational aspirant into a state of extreme self-belief. It strikes without warning, is no respecter of gender, and can infect the lowly municipal hopeful as well as lofty presidential wannabes.Screaming Lord Sutch, or his Irish equivalents who stand just for the craic, could be prone to fall victim to candidatitis as much as the most committed and earnest political activist. I believe this is due to two things. First of all, most people standing for election see little point in telling voters that they are not going to win.… Seguir leyendo »
Las recientes elecciones en Irlanda del Norte son las terceras que se realizan en este territorio desde que, hace casi nueve años (abril de 1998), el denominado Acuerdo de Viernes Santo abría un nuevo periodo en la vida política norirlandesa. El hecho de que se hayan celebrado desde entonces tres procesos electorales (1998, 2003 y 2007) sin la presencia de la violencia terrorista es, sin duda, el primer y más importante dato a reseñar. Ello tiene especial significación en un país que en el periodo anterior, durante las décadas de los setenta, ochenta y primera mitad de los noventa, sufrió con mayor intensidad que ningún otro en Europa los efectos de la violencia terrorista, con un saldo de víctimas mortales estimado entre 3.200 y 3.600 (como referencia comparativa, valga decir que estas cifras cuadruplican el número de las causadas por nuestro terrorismo 'autóctono').… Seguir leyendo »
This is what will happen today and over the rest of this month. Elections will anoint Ariel Sharon, miraculously resurrected from his coma, as Israel's prime minister. They will also establish Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas as his deputy. These two men, mortal enemies for so long, will govern together. The finance ministry will stay in Likud hands, but the education minister will be a veteran of Hamas's armed wing, a man who once served several years in jail for his part in a lethal bombing. After decades spent fighting each other to the death, these two movements will now share power, spending the next year or two arguing about school admissions and local water rates.… Seguir leyendo »
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