Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may not have changed the global world order, but it has certainly changed the geopolitics of Asia. Before the war, if Belarus was Russia’s closest ally to the west and China to the east, Kazakhstan was unquestionably its greatest ally to the south. Unlike Belarus or China, however, Kazakhstan is not looking for any extra opportunities in its relations with Russia, instead trying to quietly dismantle an alliance it never really wanted without provoking Moscow’s wrath. Chinese President Xi Jinping picking Kazakhstan for his first foreign trip since January 2020, and promising to support Kazakhstan in “safeguarding national independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity”, gives a golden opportunity to further this goal.… Seguir leyendo »
As a series of high-level talks between the United States, European allies and Russia wind down this week, an uptick in Moscow's military muscle on its borders will remain a preoccupation of western diplomats long after they return to their duty stations
The roughly 100,000 Russian troops stationed near Ukraine constitutes the biggest security crisis in years for Europe and its allies, including the US. While in Kazakhstan, Russian President Vladimir Putin took this month's brutal crackdown from the regime's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev as an opportunity to remind protesters revolutions will never be allowed to spread in the region and by deploying Moscow-led security alliance troops to help quell the unrest, the central Asian country remains firmly in his sphere of influence
The tone of Putin's rhetoric and the trajectory of military deployment leave little doubt over his intentions: to regain control over a wide swath of the former Soviet Union -- even to the point of rolling back the footprint of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to the Cold War years.… Seguir leyendo »
Kazakhstan, the key strategic partner of the United States in Central Asia, is in turmoil. Until the end of 2021, it was a confident (bordering on smug), upper-middle-income country; its leaders routinely boasted about success at fostering interethnic peace and stability.
Yet in the course of just a few days it has been rocked to the core by the double blow of unprecedented nationwide protests and a power struggle among members of the top political elite. On Jan. 11, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced a deadline for the departure of the roughly 2,500 foreign troops he had invited into the country to help control the unrest.… Seguir leyendo »
To the world’s slippery slopes, add Kazakhstan. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his allies organized a quick transfer of power there this week, but analysts say the situation remains volatile.
With Russian military backing, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev appeared to consolidate power on Saturday, containing protesters who had attacked government buildings last week. Tokayev called Putin to voice “special gratitude” for the Kremlin’s assistance. Russia and other former Soviet states had sent about 2,500 troops to Kazakhstan on Thursday to quell unrest.
Tokayev’s forces on Saturday arrested Karim Massimov — a former prime minister who had been heading Kazakhstan’s intelligence agency and is seen as friendly to the West — and charged him with treason.… Seguir leyendo »
Russia is deploying troops to Kazakhstan, where a sharp increase in fuel prices and the rising costs of food and other necessities have triggered mass protests. So far, dozens of people have died. Government buildings have been torched, statues of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev toppled. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s position is shaky. Unable to quell the protests on its own, the Kazakh leadership asked for assistance from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russia-led regional security alliance.
Yet Kazakhstan’s problems are not unique to itself. Ominously, prices of staple foods and other vital goods are rapidly rising in Russia as well.… Seguir leyendo »
Even though the Kazakhstan government shut down that country’s Internet, shocking news continues to emerge of the violent protests there that have prompted harsh police retaliation nationwide. That, in turn, has resulted in dozens killed, government buildings aflame, a survival struggle for the ruling regime and a fresh crisis for that regime’s main benefactor, Russian President Vladimir Putin. The West should use Putin’s new problem to dissuade him from recklessly starting another crisis in Ukraine.
To be sure, Putin has long preached about reasserting Russian control over all the former Soviet territories, including Kazakhstan. Putin has said the country was artificially invented by former prime minister and president Nursultan Nazarbayev, who founded and ruled it for more than three decades as a thinly veiled dictatorship, mimicking Putin’s own model.… Seguir leyendo »
After 21 years of negotiations, the littoral countries of the Caspian Sea – Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan - are apparently close to agreeing the sea’s legal status. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that the text of a convention on delimitation was settled at a December meeting with his four counterparts. According to Lavrov, the Caspian presidents will meet in the first half of 2018 in Astana to finally sign.
Russia has been trying a change of tack. Rather than carrying out unwieldy five-sided negotiations, President Vladimir Putin now seems to be favouring bilateral and trilateral approaches. This may be yielding results beyond mere carving up of the sea: Russia has had more effective and flexible separated dialogue with neighbouring countries, based on common interests with each of them, but which are not necessarily shared by all five countries.… Seguir leyendo »
Si no se controla, la toma por parte de Rusia de los puntos clave de Crimea será sólo el primer paso para cambiar el mapa de Eurasia. El argumento de Vladímir Putin de la necesidad de usar la fuerza militar para proteger a los ciudadanos de Rusia y a toda la “población de habla rusa” es de mal agüero. Hay que leerlo como una advertencia de que el presidente de Rusia quiere dar la vuelta a lo que él dice que fueron dos de las grandes catástrofes del siglo XX: la caída del imperio ruso y la desintegración de la Unión Soviética.… Seguir leyendo »
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