The United States needs to get way more proactive way more quickly in what is rapidly morphing into a huge crisis in the heart of Africa. Two weeks ago, a military junta suddenly deposed Niger’s pro-American, democratically elected president. The outcome of this coup could set the direction for years to come in a region that is home to critical raw materials, a base for jihadists driven from the Middle East and a source of strategic benefits for Russia.
This latest challenge to democracy in Africa presents an opportunity for Russia to expand its control over the region via its Wagner mercenary group.… Seguir leyendo »
Según Robert Rotberg, un Estado fallido es aquel en el que el gobierno no controla todo el territorio, donde hay violencia contra la autoridad política y donde hay crimen transnacional. Estos Estados no surgen de un día para otro, sino que poco a poco la capacidad del gobierno se va erosionando, lo cual provoca que surjan señores de la guerra en territorios periféricos para acabar luchando por el gobierno central.
Esto es exactamente lo que está ocurriendo en Rusia. La incapacidad de los gobiernos rusos para gestionar su declive, unido a los errores cometidos en Ucrania, han convertido a Rusia en un Estado fallido.… Seguir leyendo »
Resulta imposible albergar demasiadas certezas sobre lo sucedido en Rusia desde el viernes. Esa es la premisa de la que debe partir cualquier análisis honesto e inevitablemente provisional.
En este momento, entre la comunidad de expertos hay, en esencia, dos grandes perspectivas. Por un lado, quienes sospechan que todo esto no ha sido más que un engaño masivo orquestado por el propio Vladímir Putin. El rápido acuerdo alcanzado por Yevgueni Prigozhin y el Kremlin cuando parecía que ya no había vuelta atrás y la batalla por Moscú era inminente, alimenta esta visión.
Una popular comentarista radicada en Viena ha llegado a calificarlo de "inicio de la campaña de Putin para ser reelegido en marzo de 2024".… Seguir leyendo »
Russian President Vladimir Putin has lost touch with reality. He has declared a partial mobilization to reverse his defeats in Ukraine and, signaling his desperation, ratcheted up Russia’s nuclear saber rattling. Each day the war drags on, his country grows more isolated from the rest of the world. Increasingly, Russia depends on China to keep its economy from collapsing under the weight of sanctions, even as Chinese leaders express doubts about the invasion. Russia’s failure to take Kyiv, and its recent reversals in the Kharkiv region in eastern Ukraine, have led even pro-Putin commentators to question his decisions. Against this backdrop, it makes sense that many Russians are starting to ask how much longer Putin can stay in power and pursue his barbarous war.… Seguir leyendo »
The fall of Robert Mugabe has dominated global coverage of Africa over the past few weeks. In Western coverage of the first week after the coup in Zimbabwe there was speculation about what China knew beforehand and whether Beijing played an active role in pushing for it.
China’s mention drowned out other notable external stakeholders such as the UK, the US, South Africa, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union (AU). And it almost threatened to overshadow the domestic dynamics that led to the changeover.
There are reasons to draw a direct parallel between China and the recent events in Zimbabwe.… Seguir leyendo »
Twenty years ago this weekend, a group of Communist Party Politburo members and Soviet government officials attempted a coup d’état. They created an unconstitutional “committee on the state of emergency,” isolated the Soviet president and removed him from power.
The events of that August were the result of fierce political struggle during the final stretch in our efforts to reform the Soviet Union.
During the years of perestroika, major changes transformed our country. The people supported glasnost; free, contested elections; and the beginning of the transition to market economics. But the bureaucracies of the Communist Party and the government eventually saw in those changes threats to their position.… Seguir leyendo »
The plot was hatched at a bathhouse in downtown Moscow. At midmorning on Saturday, Aug. 17, 1991, the head of the K.G.B., Vladimir A. Kryuchkov, summoned five senior Soviet officials for a highly secretive meeting that he told them would be vital for the future of the U.S.S.R.
Wrapped in towels in the steam room, and later while cooling down over vodka and Scotch, the half-dozen die-hard Communist apparatchiks outlined a plan to overthrow the Soviet government. For the Soviet spymaster, the prime minister, defense minister and the other paunchy, half-naked co-conspirators, the stakes could not have been higher. And they had to act quickly.… Seguir leyendo »
In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan called the Soviet Union “the evil empire.” A fast-food commercial featured a matronly Russian woman in a drab, ill-fitting outfit. “Day wear,” droned the Russian-accented announcer. The woman shone a flashlight to turn the outfit into “evening wear” and carried a beach ball for “swimwear.”
Back then, we didn’t hold a high opinion of the Soviet Union.
We didn’t realize that the Soviet Union’s people held it in similar low regard. It seemed more of a surprise to us than to them that their country imploded in late August 1991.
I happened to be visiting the Soviet Union during those historic days 20 years ago.… Seguir leyendo »
Utilizamos cookies para el correcto funcionamiento de la página web y analíticas para estadísticas.ACEPTARPolítica de privacidad
