Two thousand twenty-two was not a good year for the world’s leading autocracies. In November, Chinese President Xi Jinping confronted the largest antigovernment demonstrations since the Tiananmen Square uprising in 1989. Provoked by Beijing’s stringent “zero COVID” policies, protesters across the country made overtly political demands, calling for Xi’s resignation and an end to one-man rule. These protests erupted just when the Chinese economy was experiencing its lowest growth rate since 1976. The government responded by suddenly abandoning its zero-COVID program—a signature Xi policy—and letting the virus spread rapidly through the population. The reversal, and the estimated one million deaths that followed it, further eroded public trust in the regime.… Seguir leyendo »
Last month, both the U.S. and French navies intercepted cargo vessels smuggling thousands of weapons from Iran bound for Yemen. Tehran sent the shipments in defiance of a U.N. Security Council resolution banning the provision of weapons to the Houthis, Iran’s Yemeni partner and proxy force in the civil conflict. The two seizures alone netted thousands of Russian-style assault rifles and machine guns, dozens of antitank missiles, and over half a million rounds of ammunition. Likewise, last summer, the British navy snagged an Iranian vessel carrying surface-to-air missiles and engines for land-attack cruise missiles.
Instead of allowing these weapons to gather dust, Washington should send them to Ukraine.… Seguir leyendo »
For the first time, Iran is involved in a major war on the European continent. Iranian military advisors, most likely members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, are on the ground in occupied Ukraine—and possibly Belarus—to help Russia rain down deadly Iranian kamikaze drones on Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure. According to an Israeli news report citing a Ukrainian official, 10 Iranians have already been killed in a Ukrainian attack on Russian positions. Tehran is now preparing to up the ante by providing Russia not only with potentially thousands of additional drones but also, for the first time, with two types of Iranian-made ballistic missiles to supplement Russia’s own dwindling stocks.… Seguir leyendo »
On Sunday, almost by accident, two groups of demonstrators came together in London. One was waving Ukrainian flags; the other Iranian flags. When they met, they cheered each other, and chanted, “All together we will win”.
The uprising in Iran and the war in Ukraine are, on the surface, very different conflicts. At their core, however, they are being fought by individuals who have decided to risk their lives, to do what it takes to defend their right to live as they choose; to push back against violent, entrenched dictatorships.
For decades autocrats have been gaining ground while democracies looked almost spent, in retreat.… Seguir leyendo »
¿A poco no sería apropiado si los regímenes en Moscú y Teherán —el primero definido por un culto al machismo de su líder, el segundo por su misoginia sistémica— fueran derrumbados por protestas inspiradas y lideradas por mujeres?
Esa posibilidad ya no es remota. Las protestas que se han desarrollado en todo Irán desde la muerte cruel de la joven de 22 años, Mahsa Amini —acusada de violar la ley de Irán sobre el uso del hiyab, arrestada por la polícia de la moral y que casi indudablemente golpearon hasta dejarla en coma mientras estaba detenida— son las más serias desde la Revolución verde de 2009 después de la reelección fraudulenta de Mahmud Ahmadineyad.… Seguir leyendo »
A veces un nuevo ciclo es más que ruido, a veces es una señal fuerte y extraña de lo que tal vez nos espera más allá del horizonte. Ese fue el caso este mes, cuando se develó una geopolítica mucho más esperanzadora, peligrosa... y fundamentalmente distinta. Con unos días de diferencia, literalmente, vimos que el ejército ruso casi colapsó en Ucrania y el régimen iraní fue humillado en las calles de sus ciudades.
Los soldados del presidente ruso Vladímir Putin demostraron ser poco más que una turba en movimiento: después de torturar y maltratar a los civiles que estaban bajo su control, abandonaron abruptamente sus puestos y literalmente huyeron de las fuerzas ucranianas que avanzaban.… Seguir leyendo »
Beware the emerging Tehran-Moscow alliance: Russia has begun using Iranian-made drones in the Ukraine war and Iran has offered to share its financial networks to help Russia evade sanctions, according to Western intelligence officials.
For Russia, struggling to maintain momentum in Ukraine after six months of brutal conflict, the new Iranian assistance could be a game-changer, the intelligence officials warn. “This is not just a tactical alliance”, explained one official. With China and India refusing to sell weapons to Russia, Iran could become an essential pipeline for weapons and money.
“They know all the tricks in the book”, in terms of evading sanctions, the intelligence official said of Iran.… Seguir leyendo »
Vladímir Putin ha visitado esta semana Irán de forma oficial. Es su segunda visita al exterior desde la invasión rusa de Ucrania el 24 de febrero. Y muchas voces alertan ya, la mayoría de las veces de forma interesadamente exagerada, de la gestación de un nuevo "eje del mal" formado por Moscú, Pekín y Teherán. Los tres principales representantes del bloque antioccidental en tres de las áreas geográficas más relevantes del mundo desde el punto de vista económico, estratégico y político.
Pero la realidad es que estamos todavía lejos de una alianza estratégica. Porque esto es una colaboración, sí, pero forzada por las circunstancias, lo que podría llevar a que esta no fuera ni lo profunda ni lo duradera que muchos vaticinan.… Seguir leyendo »
After 21 years of negotiations, the littoral countries of the Caspian Sea – Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan - are apparently close to agreeing the sea’s legal status. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that the text of a convention on delimitation was settled at a December meeting with his four counterparts. According to Lavrov, the Caspian presidents will meet in the first half of 2018 in Astana to finally sign.
Russia has been trying a change of tack. Rather than carrying out unwieldy five-sided negotiations, President Vladimir Putin now seems to be favouring bilateral and trilateral approaches. This may be yielding results beyond mere carving up of the sea: Russia has had more effective and flexible separated dialogue with neighbouring countries, based on common interests with each of them, but which are not necessarily shared by all five countries.… Seguir leyendo »
In early August, Russian President Vladimir Putin took part in a trilateral summit with his Azerbaijani and Iranian counterparts in Baku. Though the meeting was initiated by Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev, one of Moscow’s main goals was to strengthen relations with Iran, a key partner for Russia in Syria and the Caspian region and in energy. The relationship certainly needed a boost.
Syria is not enough
An obvious sign of trouble between the two is the decline of Russian−Iranian trade. In 2015 trade between the two was worth $1.24 billion – the lowest value in a decade. By mid-2016, long-discussed joint projects in the energy sector were still on the drawing board and the construction of the second and third power units of the Bushehr nuclear power plant had not yet begun.… Seguir leyendo »
Autocracies and other despotisms are notoriously unfaithful to their obligations under international agreements. When the Soviet Union was still around, it set the standard by evading and cheating while falsely accusing its Western counterparts of doing the same. The Soviets’ successors are following its well-trodden path. Vladimir Putin’s renewed aggression in Ukraine is but one example. Less subtle (if that’s possible) and more immediate are Iran’s conduct, in respect to President Obama’s nuclear weapons deal with it, and Turkey‘s, in regard to its agreement with the European Union on the control of immigration.
When the Soviets made deals, their violations of them were constrained only by our military power and reflexive diplomatic pressures.… Seguir leyendo »
However Russia decides to react to the ongoing spat between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the consequences for the Kremlin’s goals in the Middle East will be negative.
On the one hand, keeping quiet would affect the dynamics of Russian−Iranian relations that had been on the rise. Moscow invested diplomatic and economic effort in improving the dialogue with Tehran, including the opening of a credit line. It cannot afford to lose these dividends considering Russia’s economic dire straits. The Russian authorities are desperate to retain Iran within its sphere of influence and avoid any drift westwards. Without Iranian ground forces fighting the opponents of the Assad regime, it will be difficult for Moscow to attain its goals in Syria − Russia needs Iran’s military and political support to compel the Syrian opposition and its sponsors to negotiate with Bashar al-Assad.… Seguir leyendo »
Israeli responses to the news that Russia would lift a voluntary ban on the sale of weapons to Iran and provide state-of-the-art air defense systems to the Islamic Republic have ranged from concern to seeming panic.
Some experts fear that the S-300 missiles could take away Israel’s (or even the United States’) ability to easily strike nuclear targets in Iran, while Israeli officials expressed their concern that the missiles could make their way to Hezbollah, the militant Shi’ite faction that controls Southern Lebanon, on Israel’s northern border.
Others pondered what Russian President Vladimir Putin hopes to get from the announcement.
Speaking on Israel Army Radio, Zvi Magen, a former ambassador to both Ukraine and Russia, rhetorically asked “why is Russia in such a hurry?”… Seguir leyendo »
A Russian Akula-class cruise-missile attack submarine recently transited the North Atlantic and operated undetected in the Gulf of Mexico for an undeclared period of time. The United States did not find out until after it left. This should not have come as a surprise.
The naval resources we once had that implemented the Navy’s Maritime Strategy, a major factor in winning the Cold War, have been decimated. President Reagan’s 600-ship Navy has been allowed to atrophy to about 285 ships. To put that number in perspective, that is approximately the number of ships I had under my command of the Pacific Fleet.… Seguir leyendo »
Dictatorships, as well as democracies, depend on money, although North Korea and Zimbabwe would like to prove the contrary. Dictators have their own constituencies and their constituencies have their own costs.
The victory of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may have been fraudulent; it is certainly bad news for the Iranian people and the world. It means that the theocratic dictatorship of Iran will not benefit even from the modest reforms promised by Mir Hossein Mousavi. The result will alienate the young urban middle class, particularly women. It will do nothing but damage to Iran's foreign relations.
It would be pleasant to suppose that the underlying trends of the economy would bring down this oppressive regime.… Seguir leyendo »
In typical he-man style, Russia's Vladimir Putin ignored an alleged plot to assassinate him and went ahead today with a visit to Tehran. Iran says the plot story was black propaganda fabricated by its enemies, which may well be true. Historically speaking, Russians need no outside help in doing away with their leaders. They manage perfectly well by themselves.
It is also true though that, over the centuries, Persian-Russian relations have been spattered with the blood of eminent men. During the Napoleonic wars, Iran turned to France, and then Britain, for help in fending off imperial Russia. But it was let down by both and in 1813, the treaty of Golestan effectively confirmed Russia's seizure of its Caucasus territories.… Seguir leyendo »
La influencia de Irán en Oriente Próximo se está fortaleciendo no sólo por las oportunidades creadas por la frustración del poder estadounidense en Iraq, sino gracias a la protección diplomática que ha estado recibiendo de China y, de manera más importante, de Rusia. Ahora que Putin estuvo de gira para intensificar la actividad diplomática en Oriente Próximo, es un buen momento para evaluar la influencia de su país en la región.
Enarbolando la amenaza de su derecho a veto en el Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU, Rusia dedicó gran parte de los últimos dos años a desarticular el listado de acciones propuestas para sancionar a Irán por violar sus compromisos con el Organismo Internacional de la Energía Atómica (OIEA) en torno a su programa nuclear.… Seguir leyendo »
Por Antonio Sánchez Andrés, Departamento de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Valencia (REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO. 10/05/06):
Tema: En este ARI se analiza la posición de Rusia en la crisis nuclear iraní para dirimir cuáles pueden ser sus posibles mecanismos de resolución.
Resumen: El objetivo de este trabajo es concretar cuál es la posición de Rusia en el conflicto nuclear iraní. Inicialmente, se ponen de manifiesto los principales elementos de este acontecimiento que han sacudido el panorama internacional durante el primer cuatrimestre de 2006. A continuación se destacan los intereses rusos principales que se encuentran en juego en relación con el programa nuclear iraní.… Seguir leyendo »
By Rose Gottemoeller, the director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Moscow Center, was responsible for nonproliferation policy at the Department of Energy from 1997 to 2000 (THE NEW YORK TIMES, 03/05/06):
IN recent months, Iran has pursued defiance as if it were a virtue, declaring itself a member of the nuclear club, curtailing cooperation with international nuclear inspectors and rejecting calls by the United Nations to drop its nuclear enrichment program.
Should the rest of the international community give up on negotiations and take another path, either sanctions or the military options that have been bandied around in Washington?… Seguir leyendo »
Valerie Lincy and Gary Milhollin are, respectively, a research associate and the director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control (THE NEW YORK TIMES, 01/02/06):
FINALLY, we are told, there is a breakthrough in the Iranian nuclear crisis: the Bush administration and its European allies have persuaded Russia and China to vote, at tomorrow's meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency, to send Iran's nuclear violations before the United Nations Security Council. Allow us to point out the gray lining in the silver cloud.
Although the agency is now likely to report Iran to the Security Council, America and the Europeans agreed that the United Nations will wait at least a month before deciding on any punishment.… Seguir leyendo »
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