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A soldier standing near an Iranian missile in Tehran, April 2022. Majid Asgaripour / West Asia News Agency / Reuters

Israel has long made clear its penchant for applying military pressure to disrupt Iran’s nuclear advances and weapons exports—and, more recently, its drone technology program. In the last few months, however, Israel’s appetite for risk seems to have increased. In early January, an Israeli strike aimed at pro-Iranian militant groups inside Syria put the international airport in Damascus out of service. Later that month, reports indicated that Israel had carried out a significant drone attack on a military site in the Iranian city of Isfahan. Israel prepared for a retaliatory strike from Iran, possibly on civilian targets outside the country. Iran subsequently launched a drone attack on a commercial shipping tanker in the Arabian Sea owned by an Israeli businessman, according to U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

The scene of an Israeli air strike in Syria’s Latakia region is pictured on 5 May 2021 (SANA/AFP)

The explosion of a  Syrian anti-aircraft missile in southern Israel on 22 April, followed by Israeli attacks  around the northern city of Latakia on 5 May, were only the latest episodes of the shadow war that Israel and Iran have been fighting in war-ravaged Syria for several years. They will not be the last.

Neither side wants these occasional flareups to grow into a fully fledged confrontation. But the risk of escalation is real due to potential miscalculations or technical errors in both sides’ attempts to achieve tactical gains.

The involvement of Hezbollah, Tehran’s most important non-state ally, in the Syrian theatre carries a further risk that comparatively low-level altercations in Syria may spill over into Lebanon and trigger a destructive conflict between the heavily armed Shia group and Israel.…  Seguir leyendo »

A view of the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, 155 miles south of Tehran, in a satellite image taken last week. (Maxar Technologies via Reuters)

Congratulations — presumably — are due to Israeli intelligence for a devastating fire at Iran’s Natanz uranium enrichment facility over the weekend. Details are scarce, with the New York Times reporting that the site was hit by an apparent explosion and The Post citing an Israeli media report that it was a cyberattack.

So it goes in Israel’s shadow war against Iran’s nuclear program. Recent attacks attributed to Israel included the assassination of Iran’s top nuclear scientist last fall and a mysterious series of explosions that struck various sites in Iran, including a major missile facility, last summer. The most successful attack of all was the Stuxnet virus — part of a joint U.S.-Israeli…  Seguir leyendo »

A protester holds a picture of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh during a demonstration against the nuclear scientist’s killing in Tehran on Saturday. Credit Wana/Reuters

When Israel engineered the assassinations of a half-dozen Iranian nuclear scientists from 2010 to 2012, supporters of these killings argued that they would help slow a nuclear program at a time when multilateral diplomacy was showing little progress.

The killing on Friday of Iran’s top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, comes in a very different context.

Iran is again producing a large amount of uranium, but it is not close to the level needed to produce a nuclear weapon. Its actions are largely driven by the Trump administration’s unilateral withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, which was intended to put a lid on Iran’s ability to amass enough highly enriched uranium for a single weapon until January 2031.…  Seguir leyendo »

The impending peace agreement between the United Arab Emirates and Israel is a game-changer for the entire Middle East.

In addition to wedding one of world's wealthiest states (the UAE) with its most innovative (Israel), it also opens new avenues toward peace. Realizing that other Arab states may soon follow the UAE's lead, and that time is no longer on their side, the Palestinians may well return to the negotiating table.

An Israeli public that is secure in its newfound relations with the Arab world will be more likely to make concessions. Stalemated for almost 30 years, the peace process might finally be revived.…  Seguir leyendo »

These images obtained from the state-run Iran Press news agency on June 30 shows footage of a powerful explosion at a clinic in northern Tehran. (Roy Issa/AFP/Getty Images)

Over the last few weeks, Iran has been hit by a series of unusual explosions at such sensitive facilities as its nuclear enrichment complex, factories and gas pipelines. Many analysts and diplomats suspect sabotage by Israel, the United States or some other outside force. While reliable information from within Iran is difficult to come by, and conflicting accounts are emerging, at least two of the incidents occurred at sites linked to Iran’s missile and nuclear programs. The New York Times quoted a “Middle Eastern intelligence official” claiming that Israel planted a bomb at the Natanz nuclear facility in the building where Iran had resumed work on advanced centrifuges.…  Seguir leyendo »

While denounced by many as a dangerous escalation of tensions that could lead to war, the killing of Iran's Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani was welcomed in Israel and throughout the Middle East. Justice was done for the thousands of people killed under Soleimani's command, and he helped prop up Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, which was responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians. Following a period of non-response to Iranian attacks and provocations, American deterrence was restored. Israelis say this knowing full well that the Iranian regime is almost certain to seek revenge and that its first target could be Israel.…  Seguir leyendo »

An Israeli soldier stands on Mount Bental in the Golan Heights near the Syrian border. Photo: Getty Images.

Israel's retaliatory attack on Iranian military targets inside Syria represents the biggest direct confrontation between the two countries in their history. It came after rockets were launched from Iranian bases in Syria towards the Golan Heights. This escalation has caused widespread concern that war might be imminent between Israel and Iran.

But neither wishes to engage in all-out war with the other. Iran’s Golan Heights rocket launch was the product of the growing pressure it faces in the Syrian conflict. Unless the United States steps in with a plan for Syria, Israel and Iran will continue to clash there.

Iran regards its presence in Syria as crucial for its influence in the Levant.…  Seguir leyendo »

Como se preveía desde hace tiempo, Donald Trump anunció el martes su retirada del acuerdo con Irán y el restablecimiento de las sanciones contra este país. Aunque le han aplaudido el primer ministro de Israel, Benjamín Netanyahu, y el príncipe saudí Mohamed Bin Salmán, muchas otras naciones, entre ellas China, Rusia y las europeas, han criticado a Trump por rechazar un acuerdo de control de armas que está funcionando.

Ni las dudas sobre los misiles balísticos iraníes ni el hecho de que Trump se haya propuesto acabar con todos los logros del Gobierno de Obama son los verdaderos motivos para retirarse del acuerdo.…  Seguir leyendo »

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is no amateur when it comes to appearing on live television. In a televised speech Monday, Netanyahu made bold accusations about Iran’s nuclear record. The speech came ahead of President Trump’s expected announcement about whether the U.S. will continue to participate in the Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, on May 12.

Not one to shy away from props, Netanyahu dramatically pulled a curtain to reveal bookshelves containing dozens of files and CDs, copies of original Iranian documents secretly removed from Tehran by Israeli agents in recent weeks.…  Seguir leyendo »

Remnants of an unidentified rocket that fell in Hasbaya, Lebanon, near the Israeli and Syrian borders, in February. Israel has responded to Iranian drone attacks in the border areas. Credit Zyad Shoufi/European Pressphoto Agency

The government of President Bashar al-Assad is resurgent in Syria, steadily retaking terrain lost to the rebels. This may bring to an end one set of conflicts, but it could spark newer, potentially more dangerous confrontations.

The key to preventing the Syrian civil war from splintering into an even more chaotic and deadly phase will be Russia, whose September 2015 military intervention gave it control of Syrian airspace and placed it politically in the driver’s seat. But the United States, too, could still play an important role in preventing matters from getting worse.

To understand how perilous the situation in Syria is, look at the map: In the northwest, in Idlib Province, a “de-escalation zone” that is monitored by the Turkish Army remains tenuous.…  Seguir leyendo »

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel on Monday discussing a covert Israeli operation in which documents about Tehran’s nuclear program were smuggled out of Iran. Credit Amir Cohen/Reuters

On Monday morning, Middle East watchers awoke to astonishing news from Israel. A headline in The Jerusalem Post read, “Netanyahu to Address Country with ‘Dramatic News About Iran.’” As the day passed, details remained sparse, but it became clear that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was going to unveil secret evidence of Iranian cheating on the nuclear deal. The timing of the announcement, right after the new American secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, met with Mr. Netanyahu, accentuated its gravity.

Monday afternoon, just a bit behind schedule, Mr. Netanyahu took to the stage next to an enormous screen. The headlines had suggested he would be in his office at a desk or podium to share news of existential importance.…  Seguir leyendo »

Volatility is rising across the Middle East as local, regional and international conflicts increasingly intertwine and amplify each other. Four Crisis Group analysts give a 360-degree view of the new risks of overlapping conflicts that involve Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Lebanon and Israel.

On 4 November 2017, Huthi/Saleh forces in Yemen fired a Burkan 2-H long-range ballistic missile at the Saudi capital, Riyadh. It was intercepted and destroyed before reaching its target. The attack occurred during a profound political shakeup in Saudi Arabia, where Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is seeking to consolidate power, and amid dramatic Saudi political manoeuvrings in the region which led to the resignation of Lebanon’s prime minister, Saad Hariri. Adding to the volatility, Israel has been making veiled – and not so veiled – threats about its intent to prevent Hizbollah from developing an indigenous capacity to build sophisticated precision missiles.…  Seguir leyendo »

Israel y el pacto con Irán

Con la reanudación de las sesiones del Congreso de Estados Unidos después de la pausa veraniega, el presidente Obama ya dispone de los votos suficientes para llevar a la práctica el pacto nuclear firmado con Irán el 14 de julio. El primer ministro israelí, Benjamín Netanyahu, que encabezó la campaña para impedir el acuerdo —a veces hasta extremos melodramáticos—, ha sido derrotado, al menos por ahora. Pero es necesario conocer los fundamentos de esa campaña, porque tiene connotaciones no solo para EE UU sino también para Europa, que no se limitan a la cuestión nuclear iraní.

Resulta cómodo explicar la posición israelí como una combinación de dos factores: que Irán es una amenaza especialmente peligrosa para Israel, y que ese es el estilo personal de Netanyahu, un político neoconservador del ala más dura, propenso a las exageraciones y el alarmismo.…  Seguir leyendo »

The day after six world powers reached a nuclear agreement with Iran in July, the Israeli Knesset’s foreign affairs and defense committee called on Israel’s government to “continue to closely follow the precise and strict implementation” of the agreement “to ensure that Iran is not continuing to fool the international community as it did in the past, while strengthening the historic alliance between the United States and Israel.”

In early August, nearly 70 former senior members of Israel’s defense community, myself included, published an open letter to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, urging him to accept the nuclear deal as an “accomplished fact.”…  Seguir leyendo »

Few states face the kind of complex, sustained security challenges that Israel does.

Israel has not enjoyed one day of peace with its neighbors since its independence in 1948. Many Arab and Muslim states have maintained an economic and political boycott against Israel for decades.

There is an automatic majority against Israel in the United Nations, leading often to perverse outcomes in which Israel's human rights record is condemned by states whose violations of human rights are far worse. Terror groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas target Israel with rockets and suicide bombers. And today, Iran seeks nuclear weapons capability even as some of its leaders call openly for Israel's destruction and deny the genocide of the Holocaust.…  Seguir leyendo »

El acuerdo nuclear alcanzado por Irán y los cinco miembros permanentes del Consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas (China, Francia, Rusia, Estados Unidos y el Reino Unido), más Alemania, no supone la capitulación de Irán, como deseaba el primer ministro israelí Binyamin Netanyahu. Y es casi tan imperfecto como puede serlo cualquier acuerdo negociado entre partes en disputa. Sin embargo, crea un marco sólido para impedir que Irán produzca armas nucleares en los próximos 10 a 15 años, y eso es un cambio muy positivo.

Netanyahu podría, si quisiera, declararse uno de los principales artífices de este avance. Si no hubiera alimentado la histeria mundial respecto de las ambiciones nucleares de Irán, es probable que el paralizante régimen internacional de sanciones que llevó a Irán a la mesa de negociaciones jamás se hubiera implementado.…  Seguir leyendo »

The prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, responded to the Iran deal as expected: It is bad, endangers Israel, he argued; we are against it and will be the only American ally not only to oppose it, but to go down gloriously, fighting a battle in Congress that we are destined to lose.

Mr. Netanyahu often warns that Iran is like Nazi Germany in 1938, fooling naïve appeasers even as it plans a cataclysm for Jews. But only those who never see merit in any proposal and never initiate their own could respond as the Israeli leader has.

Not that the agreement is without faults.…  Seguir leyendo »

If you scan the headlines, you may have seen that I've written a new book, "Ally: My Journey Across the American-Israeli Divide." Clearly, it has touched a nerve.

This is hardly surprising. The book is out precisely when the United States looks poised to sign a nuclear deal with Iran -- a deal that is bad for Israel, bad for America and bad for the world.

For Israel, Iran's nuclear program poses not one, but several existential threats. The first and most obvious is that Iran will develop nuclear warheads and will place them atop one of the many intercontinental ballistic missiles it has built, missiles whose sole purpose is to carry such warheads.…  Seguir leyendo »

Notwithstanding the polls, the valiant efforts of the Obama White House, a new unity on the Israeli left and a controversial term, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party appears to have swept to victory in Tuesday's Israeli elections.

For many in Israel, the election turned on domestic economic issues and on personality. Pollsters had believed that the combination of rising prices, slowing growth and a controversial leader at the helm of the incumbent Likud would finally doom the man who was looking to notch a historic fourth term as premier on his belt. Not so much.

While it will likely take some time for Netanyahu to form a new government, the reverberations of his victory will be felt fast in Washington.…  Seguir leyendo »