El 12 de abril de 1861, la artillería rebelde abrió fuego contra Fort Sumter, y así comenzó la Guerra de Secesión de Estados Unidos. Al final, la guerra se convirtió en una catástrofe para el sur, que perdió a más de una quinta parte de sus jóvenes. Pero ¿por qué los secesionistas, del sur confederado, creían que podrían ganar?
Una de las razones es que creían que estaban en posesión de un arma económica poderosa. La economía del Reino Unido, la principal potencia mundial en ese momento, dependía profundamente del algodón del sur, y pensaron que cortar ese suministro obligaría al Reino Unido a intervenir del lado de la Confederación.… Seguir leyendo »
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wants the world to boycott Russian goods. And he’s asked that countries suspend Russia’s participation in the World Trade Organization (WTO), which would make it far more difficult for Russian goods and services to compete in the global marketplace.
Russia has responded to Ukraine’s call for its ouster by arguing that WTO members “should refrain from discussing in the WTO … issues and events, which are out of the scope of the WTO”, and arguing that WTO rules do not permit its suspension.
This may become the newest front in the world’s unprecedented economic response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.… Seguir leyendo »
When the Kremlin announced a ban this month on food imports from the United States and the European Union, Russian social networks exploded with jokes about the empty store shelves in the Soviet Union. But the shelves won’t be empty; they’ll simply be stocked with mostly basic and bland items, a reflection of government policies that are pulling the country back to the past and highlighting its inner tensions.
Western sanctions and Russian countersanctions have laid bare the interdependent connections between President Vladimir Putin, his oligarch courtiers and his supporters among the broader population. He will use his control over oligarch wealth to alleviate the difficulties sanctions will bring to his followers, while his critics and those Russians who are not part of his base will likely face tough times.… Seguir leyendo »
Russians are about to lose access to virtually all food imported from the West — which is to say, a significant portion of the food that Russians consume. President Vladimir Putin ordered the ban on imports to retaliate against Western countries that imposed economic sanctions against Russia after the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine. More than anything that has happened this year — more than the annexation of Crimea, more than the latest crop of repressive laws passed by the parliament and more than the West’s sanctions — the food ban marks a turning point for Russia.… Seguir leyendo »
It’s a rainy afternoon in Moscow, and I’ve just had to placate a sobbing child who doesn’t understand why his beloved Džiugas cheese has disappeared from the supermarket. Now, as far as the suffering of civilians in east Ukraine goes, my toddler troubles are so laughably minute that it is embarrassing to talk about them. Yet these troubles are also a useful reminder that the continuing stand-off between the west and Russia over who gets to influence Ukraine will not have a merely abstract effect.
Since the Kremlin announced wide-reaching food import bans in retaliation against a third tier of western sanctions, Russian bloggers have been in uproar.… Seguir leyendo »
A lo largo de la Guerra Fría, la Unión Soviética usó cada amenaza e incentivo imaginable (incluida la promesa de la reunificación final) para conseguir la neutralidad de Alemania. Pero los líderes alemanes, tanto de izquierda como de derecha, de Konrad Adenauer a Willy Brandt, rechazaron todas las ofertas soviéticas. ¿Será ahora que el mercantilismo autoritario triunfará donde el comunismo fracasó?
Los países se integran a alianzas, o a entidades como la Unión Europea, porque estas aclaran los beneficios y las obligaciones que eso implica tan inequívocamente como es posible en las relaciones internacionales. Pero las relaciones de Alemania y Corea del Sur con sus aliados históricos (la OTAN y Estados Unidos, respectivamente) son ahora sujeto de una aparente transformación.… Seguir leyendo »
If Vladimir Putin returns as planned to the presidency in 2012, he will once again face the challenge of modernizing the Russian economy. This is something both he and his seat-warmer, Dmitri Medvedev, have failed to achieve during three consecutive presidential terms. On Thursday, a meeting of the working group on Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization is expected to end 18 years of negotiations by finalizing terms of membership for Russia, the largest economy outside of the trade body. Even Georgia, which fought a war with Russia in 2008, is now onboard. Once the few remaining issues are overcome, Russia should become a member during a ministerial meeting on Dec.… Seguir leyendo »
Enfin le bout du tunnel! A la suite de ce qui sera la négociation d’adhésion la plus longue de l’histoire, la Russie entrevoit enfin la lumière. Même Pascal Lamy, le directeur général de l’OMC, d’habitude très prudent sur ce dossier, a convenu dans un communiqué de presse que l’adhésion de la Russie à l’organisation devenait «un objectif possible» et qu’on avait assisté à une nette accélération du processus depuis six mois. Moscou a donc mis l’énergie nécessaire dans la négociation, relève-t-on à Genève. Echéance prévue: été 2011.
Il faut dire que le parcours aura été chaotique. Lancées par Boris Eltsine au début de la période de privatisation, les négociations se sont ensuite enlisées pour des questions de politique interne au Kremlin – une forte opposition de l’économie domestique russe – et externe à la Russie – l’opposition des Etats-Unis et de nombreux pays est-européens de l’ancienne zone d’influence soviétique.… Seguir leyendo »
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