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A Turkish army convoy drives through the Syrian village of Ram Hamdan, north of the city of Idlib, on 25 February, 2020. Ahmad Al-Atrash/AFP

What happened?

An airstrike killed at least 33 Turkish soldiers in Idlib, in the north west of Syria, on 27 February, according to Turkish state media. The strike exacted the highest death toll upon the Turkish military in any single day’s action for more than two decades. Ankara mainly blamed the Syrian regime for the attack on what it called a two-story command headquarters, but hinted as well at Russian responsibility. Russia disclaimed direct involvement but appeared to excuse the attack, saying the Turkish soldiers were in the company of “terrorists”, implying that they were with Syrian rebels.

Whether the strike was deliberate or inadvertent, it is part of a series of increasingly bloody clashes among Turkey, the Syrian regime and Russia over Idlib.…  Seguir leyendo »

La Coupe du monde, qui commence cette semaine en Russie, est une mascarade pour nous tous. Depuis jeudi, Vladimir Poutine, l’homme à la tête du gouvernement qui a le plus endommagé l’ordre international que n’importe quel autre depuis des décennies, sera l’hôte du plus grand événement sportif du monde.

L’homme qui a passé des années à soutenir et armer le régime brutal de Bachar al-Assad, à s’emparer par la force du territoire d’un pays voisin et interférer dans nos élections, va briller au sein d’un tournoi sportif probablement obtenu grâce à des pots-de-vin.

On dit que le football rassemble et que la Coupe du monde devrait être un moment de fête où les fans du monde entier applaudissent leurs équipes. …  Seguir leyendo »

When more than 8 million Soviet troops died during World War II, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin said that a “single death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic.” Stalin is not the only autocrat who has appeared to care little about the loss of his own forces at war. In 1991, Saddam Hussein’s front-line army lost nearly half its men to casualties or desertions. Even his elite Republican Guard lost a quarter of his men. Soviet forces in Afghanistan suffered roughly 50,000 casualties during the 1980s.

Compare these figures to Russia’s losses in several years of fighting in Syria.…  Seguir leyendo »

Vladimir Putin at a ceremony in Moscow last week (Photo: Kremlin.ru)

As we witness the slaughter of civilians in yet another part of Syria – most recently, the Damascus suburb of eastern Ghouta – the country appears to enter the endgame of the confrontation between the regime and an array of rebel groups.

But new battles await. Syria is increasingly turning into a battlefield for outside parties’ wars: in the south between Israel and a Hezbollah backed by Iran; in the north between Turkey and Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) affiliates; and in the east, potentially, between Iran and the U.S. Instead of ending the population’s suffering after years of merciless fighting, these conflicts extend and add a perilous layer to it that could trigger a regional conflagration.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Obama administration’s Syria policy has collapsed under the weight of a brutal assault on Aleppo by the forces of President Bashar al-Assad and Russia. Shrugging off global condemnation, Russia and Mr. Assad have dispatched their aircraft to attack schools and hospitals, singling out civilian targets to make the city uninhabitable and force its remaining population to flee.

Secretary of State John Kerry and other world leaders are now calling for Russia and the Assad government to be investigated for war crimes. But for the past year, Mr. Kerry had held firm to the belief that only through cooperation with Russia could the United States pressure the Assad government, reduce violence in Syria and move the country toward a political transition.…  Seguir leyendo »

The historic citadel in Aleppo, Syria, as seen in 1997. Credit Ihlow/ullstein bild via Getty Images.

The difference between Aleppo now and Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, at the turn of the millennium is that Western leaders are at least trying to save the Syrians trapped in the besieged city. A decade and a half ago, there were precious few diplomatic missions for the Chechens. Within months of taking power, Vladimir V. Putin had moved decisively to regain control of Chechnya — which had broken free of Moscow’s control in a brief but nasty war in the mid-1990s — and world leaders mostly just looked on.

Otherwise, the picture is broadly the same. Mr. Putin knows now, like he knew then, that he and his proxies can’t win on the ground, so they are trying to solve their problem from the air.…  Seguir leyendo »

Children hold dolls symbolizing dead babies during in a sit-in in solidarity with the people of Aleppo and against Russia's support of the Syrian regime, in front of the Russian embassy in Amman, Jordan, May 3, 2016. The placard reads, "Russian are baby killers". REUTERS/Muhammad Hamed

The destruction of Aleppo, especially the city’s eastern neighborhoods that are tenuously held by anti-regime rebels, is largely pushed out of the nightly news by the fierce fighting around the presidential race in the United States. A few doughty reporters and photographers venture into Syria, but usually the cameras stay at a safe distance, so that much of what we see are the flashes and smoke from shells and bombs bursting in its cities.

At other times, we see smartphone video of haggard people running for shelter or transporting the wounded, screaming in pain, to hospitals where there is little help for them.…  Seguir leyendo »

John Kerry has said he feels like he is in a "parallel universe" when he listens to Russia, given that the gap between what Moscow says has happened and the facts of reality have so often been mismatched in Syria.
Kerry made these comments after US officials quickly blamed Russia for Monday's attack on a humanitarian convoy on the outskirts of Aleppo. These accusations have not yet been confirmed, but the basis for them, according to US officials, was the siting of Russian planes above the convoy at the time of the attack.

Russia gave a response that fits what has become a standard format, regardless of whether its denials are true or not.…  Seguir leyendo »

The international community should not be deceived by Russia’s recent statements on its military withdrawal from Syria. Moscow’s latest move is not what it appears – and actually reflects its growing dexterity in playing power politics in the Middle East.

The withdrawal of Russian forces is partial at best and related only to aircraft deployed in the country after 30 September 2015. The Kremlin has confirmed that they plan to keep both the Tartus and Khmeimim military bases fully operational and continue to provide the Assad regime with the necessary equipment, training and military support. Moscow will keep an unspecified number of advanced fighter jets in the region − which have continued airstrikes even since the announcement.…  Seguir leyendo »

Vladimir Putin says he is withdrawing most Russian forces from Syria because his "objectives" have been achieved. How to judge that boast?

On such goals as keeping the dictator Bashar al-Assad in power, increasing Russian influence in the Middle East, restoring Moscow's seat at the table of global power, and sending a message of strength to Islamic extremists inside Russia's own borders, the jury is still out.

But it's not too early to consider Russian success on another front: showcasing military strength to potential adversaries, allies and arms buyers. "Essentially, Russia is using their incursion into Syria as an operational proving ground," retired Air Force general David Deptula told the New York Times last year.…  Seguir leyendo »

One of the most popular Russian satirical characters, a 19th century fictional idiot-savant by the name of Kozma Prutkov, has coined dozens of aphorisms, many of which have become proverbs. One of my favorites is: "If you see a 'buffalo' sign on an elephant's cage, do not believe your eyes." When Vladimir Putin declares the end of a military operation that, at a very low cost, has been highly successful in geostrategic and domestic political terms and promises to accrue still more benefits, we would do well to apply Kozma's words.

No matter what he says to his Western counterparts, Putin had no intention to fight ISIS when he sent advanced Su-35 fighter jets and bombers, sophisticated surface-to-air missiles and some 4,000 troops to Syria last fall.…  Seguir leyendo »

After five years of brutal fighting and two weeks of a scrappy ceasefire, President Vladimir Putin has suddenly announced that “the main part” of Russia’s forces currently in Syria will begin to be withdrawn. Assuming this is not some public relations stunt (and if it is, it will very quickly become clear, seriously damaging Moscow’s credibility), then it represents a shrewd and pragmatic move.

They will not go quickly, and it is still unclear quite who will be leaving and who will stay. The Tartus naval resupply station will remain in Moscow’s hands — presumably with some security forces — and so will the Hmeymime (Latakia) air base, implying that there will still be some Russian bombers along with their flight and technical crews, guards and commanders.…  Seguir leyendo »

“An attempt by Russia and Iran to prop up Assad and try to pacify the population is just going to get them stuck in a quagmire and it won’t work.” So said U.S. President Barack Obama when Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his military campaign in Syria to support the country’s authoritarian ruler.

There’s just one problem, though: A day after Putin announced a Russian withdrawal from Syria, it’s clear that his gamble has turned into a major win for Moscow. Here’s what Russia achieved — and why it was so successful.

First — and most importantly — Russian bombing turned the tide of the war in Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s favor.…  Seguir leyendo »

The entire world was surprised when, at the end of September 2015, Vladimir Putin suddenly started moving Russian aircraft, tanks and troops into Syria.

At the time, President Obama predicted the Russian intervention would fail.

"An attempt by Russia and Iran to prop up [Syrian President Bashar] Assad and try to pacify the population is just going to get them stuck in a quagmire and it won't work," Obama said.

This week, the world is equally dumbfounded by the Russian president's announcement that he is withdrawing the "main part" of his forces in Syria. No one knows how big a part of the Russian military presence — consisting of some 4,000 troops and 50 combat aircraft — will return to the motherland or what exactly prompted this latest move.…  Seguir leyendo »

A Russian Navy Caspian flotilla ship fires Kalibr cruise missiles against targets in Syria. Photo via Getty Images.

The agreement on a limited cessation of hostilities in Syria has achieved some of its immediate aims of reducing bloodshed and creating conditions for the delivery of urgent humanitarian aid. But by meeting a wide range of Russian objectives, not limited to Syria itself, it also stores up trouble for the West. In particular, the agreement has confirmed for Russia that assertive military intervention is the most effective means of achieving swift and positive (for Moscow) foreign policy results.

Russia has every reason to be satisfied with the current agreement. It achieves a Russian goal that has been consistent since the beginning of the conflict in Syria: stopping military operations by opposition forces against the Assad government.…  Seguir leyendo »

On Feb. 17, a bus filled with Turkish soldiers stopped alongside a car at a red light in Ankara. Moments later, a dark column of smoke rose over what had been considered the most secure district of the Turkish capital. A suicide car bomb had ripped through the military bus, killing 28 and injuring more than 60.

The next day, Turkey’s prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, announced that the suicide bomber had links to the Kurdish militia known as the Y.P.G., or People’s Protection Units. It is strange that after little more than 12 hours of investigation, the Turkish government felt confident in accusing the American-backed group.…  Seguir leyendo »

It is quite clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin views the United States not as a partner or even as an adversary but as an enemy. The fact is brought to grotesque levels by a new public campaign that literally draws horns on President Barack Obama, describing him as an international mass murderer. (The Russian government denies responsibility for the campaign.) The campaign is shocking and eye-catching, like a highway wreck. But far more distressing is what Putin is doing in Syria, where he is outplaying America and its allies, with disastrous consequences.

In October, when Russia started bombing Syria, Obama confidently predicted that Putin would regret his decision to enter the Syrian civil war.…  Seguir leyendo »

La decisión del presidente Vladimir Putin de intervenir en Siria marcó un importante punto de inflexión en la política exterior rusa en 2015. En los últimos 15 años, Putin se ha basado cada vez más en el uso del poderío militar para alcanzar sus objetivos domésticos y de política exterior, empezando con la invasión de Chechenia en 1999, luego la de Georgia en 2008 y finalmente la de Ucrania en 2014. La estrategia de Putin en Siria era el próximo paso lógico, aunque dramático, en la política exterior cada vez más agresiva de Rusia.

Sin embargo, se supone que Siria es diferente de estas intervenciones anteriores.…  Seguir leyendo »

Toda guerra es en parte un acto de escenificación. En cualquier campaña militar hay siempre un fuerte componente simbólico. Una teatralidad a veces un tanto forzada que pretende transmitir un mensaje que no siempre está directamente relacionado con acción militar en sí. En el caso de la intervención rusa en Siria, varios detalles en relación al "envoltorio" que ha acompañado la campaña militar nos proporcionan las pistas sobre el mensaje que Moscú pretende transmitir a Occidente y el mundo.

Está claro que Putin ha puesto mucho cuidado en el modo de presentar los bombardeos en Siria. Para empezar, y por primera vez, Moscú ha hecho uso de un canal de televisión de alcance global para cubrir la campaña.…  Seguir leyendo »

La intervención del Presidente de Rusia, Vladimir Putin, en el conflicto sirio ha sido acogida con beneplácito por algunos como un momento para que el Kremlin “acuda desde el frío”. Según su argumento, el conflicto de Rusia con el Estado Islámico ha unido los intereses de ese país con los de Occidente. Ni siquiera el derribo por Turquía de un avión de guerra ruso parece haber desanimado a esos optimistas.

De hecho, en una reciente conferencia de prensa el Presidente de los Estados Unidos, Barack Obama, volvió a instar a Putin a que se uniera a la alianza contra el Estado Islámico y el Presidente de Francia, François Hollande anunció su reciente visita a Moscú como un intento de crear una coalición internacional contra el grupo terrorista.…  Seguir leyendo »