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Children look at burnt out trucks that were destroyed during the war on Feb. 18 in Tigray Region, Ethiopia. Ed Ram/Getty Images

Ethiopia is putting the finishing touches on a much-trumpeted initiative for transitional justice in the wake of a devastating civil war in the northern Tigray region.

There is much popular demand for such an initiative. Ethiopians of all stripes now say they want accountability: In late December, a Justice Ministry body tasked with developing the policy in accordance with the November 2022 peace agreement, signed in South Africa between the government and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), revealed a consensus on the need for prosecution of those responsible for the most heinous war crimes. It came hot on the heels of the state-affiliated Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) releasing its own recommendations, which also listed criminal accountability among an array of transitional justice components.…  Seguir leyendo »

China’s President Xi Jinping speaks at the “Senior Chinese Leader Event” held by the National Committee on US-China Relations and the US-China Business Council on the sidelines of the APEC summit in San Francisco, California, U.S., November 15, 2023. REUTERS/Carlos Barria/Pool

Can we stop things falling apart? 2024 begins with wars burning in Gaza, Sudan and Ukraine and peacemaking in crisis. Worldwide, diplomatic efforts to end fighting are failing. More leaders are pursuing their ends militarily. More believe they can get away with it.

War has been on the rise since about 2012, after a decline in the 1990s and early 2000s. First came conflicts in Libya, Syria and Yemen, triggered by the 2011 Arab uprisings. Libya’s instability spilled south, helping set off a protracted crisis in the Sahel region. A fresh wave of major combat followed: the 2020 Azerbaijani-Armenian war over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, horrific fighting in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region that began weeks later, the conflict prompted by the Myanmar army’s 2021 power grab and Russia’s 2022 assault on Ukraine.…  Seguir leyendo »

Passengers arriving from Tigray are greeted by relatives at the Addis Ababa Bole International Airport in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on Dec. 28, 2022. AFP via Getty Images

After two years of genocidal war, a fragile peace is settling on the northern Ethiopian region of Tigray. Local forces, led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), have handed tanks and rockets over to the federal army as a gesture of goodwill. Meanwhile, rival Amhara fighters are withdrawing from the region. But it is a fraught recovery—one that now needs the central government to act to guarantee the safety of returning refugees.

In November 2022, the International Committee of the Red Cross delivered 40 tons of medical supplies to Tigray’s capital, Mekelle, yet around 11,000 tons are needed, according to the World Food Program.…  Seguir leyendo »

Ethiopian refugees who fled Tigray region, queue to receive food aid within the Um-Rakoba camp in Al-Qadarif state, on the border, in Sudan. December 11, 2020. REUTERS / Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah

One of 2022’s deadliest wars, in and around Ethiopia’s Tigray region, has for now ground to a halt. Two of the main belligerents – Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which dominated Ethiopian politics for decades before Abiy assumed power in 2018 and then fell out with him – signed a deal on 2 November in Pretoria, South Africa, and, 10 days later, a follow-up agreement in Nairobi. But the calm is fragile. Key questions remain unsettled, notably whether Tigray’s forces will disarm and whether Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, whose army has been fighting alongside Ethiopian troops, will withdraw his troops to the internationally recognised border.…  Seguir leyendo »

A militia member in Kasagita, Ethiopia, February 2022

Rape, extrajudicial killing, manmade famine, denial of medical aid and services, and expulsions described by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken as “ethnic cleansing” are among the horrors of the brutal war that exploded in Ethiopia’s northern highlands in November 2020. Up to 600,000 people, mostly ethnic Tigrayans, are estimated to have died, the majority from starvation and disease. For close to two years, Western and regional powers wrung their hands but did little to halt the violence or prevent Africa’s second most populous state from disintegrating.

Then in November 2022, the African Union made an unexpected breakthrough, facilitating a cease-fire agreement between the Ethiopian government and the rebel Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front.…  Seguir leyendo »

Tigrayan fighters traveling outside Mekelle, Ethiopia, June 2021. Finbarr O'Reilly / New York Times / Redux

For more than a year and a half, a largely invisible campaign of ethnic cleansing has played out in Ethiopia’s northern region of Tigray. Older people, women, and children have been loaded onto trucks and forced out of their villages and hometowns. Men have been herded into overcrowded detention sites, where many have died of disease, starvation, or torture. In total, several hundred thousand Tigrayans have been forcibly uprooted because of their ethnicity.

These crimes are an outgrowth of a war that began in November 2020, pitting Ethiopian federal forces and their allies, including troops from Eritrea and the neighboring Ethiopian region of Amhara, against forces linked to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which once led Ethiopia’s coalition government.…  Seguir leyendo »

More than a year has passed since I first uncovered evidence of war crimes in the continuing conflict in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia. Civilians have endured atrocities including sexual violence, ethnic cleansing, systematic massacres, unspeakable torture and starvation. The horror stories are endless. Yet Ethiopia’s government denies them.

All sides of the conflict have committed war crimes. A mound of evidence gathered by investigative journalists and rights groups suggests that Ethiopian government troops, allied soldiers from Eritrea and local Amhara forces have committed terrible atrocities against ethnic Tigrayans. These acts could potentially amount to genocide, as defined in international law.…  Seguir leyendo »

Watch List 2022. Africa. Ethiopia: Giving Talks a Chance

Crisis Group’s Watch List identifies ten countries facing deadly conflict, humanitarian emergency or other crises in 2022. In these places, early action, driven or supported by the EU and its member states, could save lives and enhance prospects for stability.

Ethiopia: Giving Talks a Chance

Ethiopia enters 2022 at an impasse in its civil war that opens a narrow window for peace. The conflict between the federal authorities and Tigray regional government has devastated the country’s north, leaving tens of thousands dead. In November 2020, political discord led to armed confrontation, with federal units, allied forces from Amhara region, which neighbours Tigray, and Eritrean troops moving into Tigray.…  Seguir leyendo »

Women wait during a food distribution organized by the Amhara government near the village of Baker, 50 km southeast of Humera, in the Tigray Region of Ethiopia, on July 11, 2021. EDUARDO SOTERAS / AFP

On 19 December, the leader of Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region announced that Tigray’s forces would pull back to their home region, marking yet another significant turnabout in Ethiopia’s brutal thirteen-month civil war. Tigray’s leadership said they had taken the decision to open space for negotiations. Addis Ababa, meanwhile, asserted that its counter-offensives had succeeded in pushing Tigray’s forces back. The latest shifts – and particularly the Tigray leader’s call for talks – afford a rare chance for a cessation of hostilities that all parties must seize. All should stop shooting immediately. In a welcome move, the federal government responded on 22 December by saying it will not push further into Tigray to try to completely defeat the resistance.…  Seguir leyendo »

A boy sits on the barrel of a military tank destroyed during fighting between the Ethiopia's National Defense Force and the Tigray People's Liberation Front in Ethiopia's Amhara region on Dec. 7. (Reuters)

Ethiopia’s year-long civil war between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is affecting civilians across the country. Members of the Qemant community, a minority ethnic group in the Amhara region, have experienced violence, arbitrary arrests and destruction at the hands of government security forces and militia.

Over 2,000 Qemant refugees have fled into Sudan since July, according to U.N. reports, and thousands more are believed to be displaced. In October, Al Jazeera documented the destruction of hundreds of buildings in Qemant communities along the Shinfa River, near the Sudanese border.

In the town of Aykel, attacks by Amhara regional security forces and Fano militia since April resulted in the deaths and displacement of many Qemant civilians.…  Seguir leyendo »

A police officer talks to new volunteers who registered to conduct night patrols during the ceremony for new military recruits who are joining the Ethiopian National Defence Force in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on November 24, 2021. Amanuel Sileshi / AFP

Ethiopia’s civil war has taken another turn. After months on the back foot, federal troops and allied militias launched a counteroffensive in late November, retaking several towns in Amhara and Afar regions. Tigray forces, which had come within a few hundred kilometres of the capital, halted their advance and withdrew north. Tigray leaders say the setback is temporary. For his part, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, having staked so much on the Tigray resistance’s defeat, is also committed to keep fighting. But given the popular support and mobilisation on both sides, neither is likely to deliver a mortal blow to the other.…  Seguir leyendo »

Members of the Ethiopian National Defense Force transport a 100mm antiaircraft gun in Shewa Robit on Dec. 5. (Amanuel Sileshi/AFP)

The war in Ethiopia has entered a crucial but uncertain stage. The Tigray Defense Force took control of the strategic towns of Dessie and Kombolcha in early November, but it’s unclear whether it will be able to advance on Addis Ababa or even hold onto these towns after a late November counteroffensive by government forces.

Regional and international diplomats continue to try to negotiate a cease-fire to prevent further violence. My research suggests one big lesson from past mediation efforts will probably be key: Successful mediators use smart pressure.

What does this mean, exactly? Smart pressure in cease-fire negotiations first entails pushing for a comprehensive and precise cease-fire agreement rather than getting the parties to just sign a document.…  Seguir leyendo »

Memorial service for the victims of the Tigray conflict organized by the city administration in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Photo by EDUARDO SOTERAS/AFP via Getty Images.

The conflict between the federal government and the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) has spread beyond Tigray, intensified old animosities between Tigray and Amhara, and drawn in armed groups from Oromia, Benishangul, and Afar, deepening identity-based contestations across Ethiopia.

These days fighting is moving ever closer to the capital, Addis Ababa, threatening a catastrophic escalation. Ethiopia’s cabinet declared a nationwide state of emergency and there are widespread reports of Tigrayan civilians being arrested without reasonable grounds. Governments around the world, from the US to Turkey, are advising their citizens to leave the country immediately.

Meanwhile, northern Ethiopia is facing a worsening humanitarian crisis, with more than eight million people in urgent need of assistance.…  Seguir leyendo »

Ethiopia Is Spiraling, and There’s One Man’s Mistake Behind It

Thousands of people killed, more than two million internally displaced and nearly a million facing famine. The conflict in Ethiopia, begun a year ago when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed launched a military assault on the Tigray region, is spiraling out of control.

The crisis has been building since June, when Tigrayan fighters took back control of much of the Tigray region and, emboldened, crossed into neighboring regions. After an uneasy hiatus, government forces last month tried to push them back. But the Tigrayan fighters repulsed the offensive and, in a stunning reversal of fortune, captured strategically important towns on the way to the capital, Addis Ababa.…  Seguir leyendo »

Elena plays checkers using bottle tops with Hailemariam in May at a reception and day center for displaced Tigrayans in Mekele, in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia. Thousands of Eritrean refugees are among the most vulnerable groups in the Tigray conflict. (Ben Curtis/AP)

For the past year, Ethiopian federal troops have been fighting against troops loyal to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in a conflict that has killed thousands of people and displaced over 2 million. Last month, armed conflict escalated in Ethiopia’s embattled Tigray, Amhara and Afar regions. And this week, Ethiopia’s government called for citizens in Addis Ababa to prepare to defend the capital as rebel groups reportedly seized towns along the road to Addis Ababa.

A month ago, the Ethiopian government alleged that United Nations officials had meddled in the country’s affairs and expelled seven of them. This move may complicate civilians’ access to humanitarian assistance, as the threat of famine looms.…  Seguir leyendo »

The sudden fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban has rightly drawn much of the world's ire and attention. Fears of women's rights and civil liberties being swept aside by Islamic extremism, along with trepidation about the country's threat to regional stability, have all justly triggered global concern.

And yet, much to our distress, for nearly a year the world has paid comparatively little attention to another brutal and escalating conflict; the catastrophic violence in Ethiopia that is affecting the lives of millions and imperiling stability in the Horn of Africa.

The fighting, which first erupted in November 2020, is the result of a dispute between the government of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and fighters in the country's mountainous northern region of Tigray.…  Seguir leyendo »

The war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region just took an unexpected turn. Seemingly isolated in mountainous reaches of central Tigray only weeks ago, Tigrayan rebels last week overran regional capital Mekelle and other cities and towns they had left last November when federal troops moved in. They were met by dancing and cheering crowds. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who had promised a short clash in Tigray and declared victory late last year, pulled federal forces back after a run of battlefield defeats. It’s a stunning turnabout in a brutal war.

So, is the fighting over? Sadly, probably not. If Abiy and Tigrayan leaders can somehow reach agreement on a ceasefire and getting urgently needed aid into Tigray, that would calm things down.…  Seguir leyendo »

I’ll use this month’s President’s Take to highlight two places where we’re worried things could fall apart further over the month ahead, at enormous human cost.

First is Yemen. The UN calls the war the world’s worst humanitarian disaster.

It has left almost a quarter of a million people dead, more than half from malnutrition and disease. Many millions more are starving, displaced or homeless. The UN’s humanitarian chief recently warned of the “worst famine the world has seen in decades”. Four hundred thousand children under the age of five are severely malnourished, he said, and “in their last weeks and months” of life.…  Seguir leyendo »

Ethiopian Army soldiers stand near children at the Mai Aini refugee camp in Ethiopia on Jan. 30. (Eduardo Soteras/AFP/Getty Images)

Nearly three months have passed since the conflict between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) began. Despite Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s assurance that the military operation ended in late November, the conflict in Tigray is far from over. United Nations officials this week cited reports that Ethiopian troops may not have the region under their command, and warned of grave food shortages, calling for the government to allow aid workers to enter the region.

On social media, pro- and anti-government groups continue to vie for control of the conflict narrative. Abiy released a statement on Tuesday encouraging Ethiopians to launch an offensive against the TPLF’s distortions and “lies” in the international arena.…  Seguir leyendo »

Ethiopian refugee children who fled the Tigray conflict wait in a line for a food distribution by Muslim Aid at the Um Raquba refugee camp in Sudan. Photograph: Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP/Getty Images

Seyoum Mesfin, Ethiopia’s long-serving former foreign minister, was one of the foremost African diplomats of his generation. He was gunned down this month in Tigray by the armed forces of a lesser man – Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s prime minister and Nobel peace prize winner. Some suggest it was the Eritrean military, Abiy’s allies, who killed Seyoum, although their presence in Tigray is officially denied. The circumstances of his death remain murky.

As with much of the unreported, unchallenged murder and mayhem currently occurring in northern Ethiopia, murky is what Abiy prefers. When he ordered the army’s assault on the breakaway Tigray region in November, he blocked the internet, shut out aid agencies and banned journalists.…  Seguir leyendo »