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A handout photo released by Yemen's Houthis-run Saba News Agency shows the Omani and Saudi delegations in meeting Houthi officials, on Apr. 9, in Sanaa, Yemen. Saba News Agency via Getty Images

The crisis in the Gaza Strip demonstrates how quickly a protracted conflict can escalate. This is concerning for Yemen, where faltering peace talks have largely frozen fighting, but a de facto truce has yielded little progress since it took effect in April 2022. Since last November, Saudi Arabia—which backs the main government forces—has sought to accelerate the peace process by hammering out a deal directly with the government’s rivals, the Iran-backed Houthis, sidestepping both its own Yemeni partners on the ground and the United Nations.

In recent months, however, Saudi Arabia’s hopes for a fast-track peace process have been dashed, and the Houthis are threatening to return to the battlefield.…  Seguir leyendo »

Tribesmen in Sanaa, Yemen, April 2023. Khaled Abdullah / Reuters

The eight-year civil war in Yemen has created what has been called the world’s worst manmade humanitarian crisis. Hundreds of thousands of Yemenis have been killed and some four million people displaced. According to the United Nations, 21.6 million people in the country require humanitarian assistance and 80 percent of the population struggles to put food on the table. Given the extent of the catastrophe, it is perhaps no surprise that observers rejoiced when the Saudi ambassador to Yemen, Mohammed Al-Jaber, shook hands with leaders of the Houthi rebel group, which is allied with Iran, in April. It appeared to be a breakthrough in a devastating, unending conflict.Both…  Seguir leyendo »

A funeral for slain Houthi fighters in Sanaa, Yemen, June 2023. Khaled Abdullah / Reuters

On June 21, Yemeni media announced that Saudi Arabia and the Houthi rebel movement had exchanged the bodies of 64 fighters along Yemen’s northern border in what has been celebrated as a positive development in relations between the two main belligerents in the country’s eight-year civil war. Yet it remains unclear whether they can make more substantive progress on reaching a comprehensive cease-fire. Since April, the Houthis have been in negotiations with the Saudi-backed Yemeni government, but so far they have struggled to reach an agreement on such exchanges, let alone on ending the terrible conflict that has torn the country apart, killed hundreds of thousands of Yemenis, and produced one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.…  Seguir leyendo »

Two young boys hitch a ride on a passing truck as it stops at a checkpoint between Marib, al-Jawf and Sanaa, in Al Jawf governorate, Yemen. January 2020. CRISIS GROUP / Peter Salisbury

Yemen is in limbo. A truce in April between Houthi rebels and the country’s internationally recognised government, backed primarily by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), lapsed in October. Major fighting has not resumed, but both sides are preparing to go back to war.

The UN-brokered truce was an unexpected bright spot in a brutal eight-year conflict. In November 2021, Houthis, who control much of Yemen’s north west, seemed to be nearing victory. Had they taken the city of Marib and nearby oil and gas facilities, that would have won them the war for the north, bought their quasi-state badly needed funds, and spelled the end for then-President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi’s government.…  Seguir leyendo »

Houthi military forces parading in Hodeida, Yemen, September 2022. Houthi Military Media / Handout / Reuters

In April 2022, the opposing sides in Yemen’s devastating civil war achieved a rare breakthrough. After eight brutal years of conflict, they signed on to a UN-brokered truce that significantly curtailed the fighting that had driven an already impoverished country into a massive humanitarian crisis. Though it was unclear whether the two-month truce would even last that long, some observers allowed themselves to hope that it could be a first step toward a broader peace process. In the best-case scenario, they believed, it might even lead to a political settlement for a conflict that has pitted Houthi rebels, who control large parts of the country and are backed by Iran, against the internationally recognized Yemeni government and an allied Saudi-led coalition that, for much of the war, received logistics, intelligence support, and weaponry from Washington.…  Seguir leyendo »

Pro-government tribal fighters southeast of Marib, Yemen, December 2021. Ali Owidha / Reuters

Just a few months ago, the war in Yemen looked like one of the most intractable conflicts in the world. After seven years of brutal fighting, the country had disintegrated into a patchwork of increasingly well-armed rival groups backed by an array of outside powers, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). None of the actors involved in the conflict—the Houthi rebels who control Sanaa, Yemen’s capital; the numerous Yemeni groups battling the Houthis on the ground; Yemen’s internationally recognized government; or the Saudi-led coalition that backs the government—appeared willing to make the compromises needed to end the conflict.…  Seguir leyendo »

A mass funeral was held in the northern city of Saada, Yemen, on Jan. 25 for those killed in air Strikes on a prison. (AFP via Getty Images)

Almost seven years since the Saudi-United Arab Emirates coalition launched its war in Yemen, the devastating impact of its relentless airstrikes and siege of the country’s land, air and sea borders has reduced the country to shambles. The Biden administration promised to withdraw support for the war and push for a peace agreement, but its policies have further inflamed the fighting, which now has seriously expanded well beyond Yemen’s borders, from deep inside Saudi Arabia to the UAE as well, increasing the instability of the entire region.

For Yemenis, it’s clear that U.S. military and political support to its rich clients, Saudi and the UAE, have not only enabled but also encouraged the ongoing war, costing nearly 400,000 Yemeni lives.…  Seguir leyendo »

Anti-Saudi regime graffiti painted on the wall of Saudi Arabia's embassy in Sana'a, Yemen. Photo by Mohammed Hamoud/Getty Images.

Some diplomats at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) are asking if Oman, the country which has facilitated the ‘backdoor channel’ between the Houthis in Sana’a and the rest of the world since 2015, has been abusing its leverage by using it to pursue its own interests towards the Saudis and the international community.

This question of leverage over the Houthis comes up in every round of negotiations, most recently as a discussion about pushing back against their diversion of humanitarian aid. But in reality, the current situation is a consequence of a poor diplomatic decision to isolate the Houthis and abandon Sana’a by international diplomats in early 2015.…  Seguir leyendo »

Paisaje de Marib, Yemen. Foto: Biblioteca de Arte / Art Library Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian. Fernando Varanda

Tema

Arabia Saudí es un actor clave en Yemen. El conflicto actual, que entra en su séptimo año, asiste a un renovado impulso por alcanzar una resolución al tiempo que se recrudece la violencia. El reino saudí ha manifestado su intención de retirarse militarmente de una campaña sin triunfos evidentes, pero hay una serie de factores y desafíos que ponen trabas y preceden a su salida de Yemen.

Resumen

Este análisis pone el foco sobre la política de Arabia Saudí hacia Yemen y los factores que la condicionan en relación con el conflicto. Atendiendo al contexto nacional e internacional, se plantean varios desafíos y líneas de acción que podrían demarcar el futuro de Yemen.…  Seguir leyendo »

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, flanked by senior Swedish, Swiss and UN officials, addresses a news conference after the High-Level Pledging Event for the Humanitarian Crisis in Yemen, in Geneva, Switzerland, April 3, 2018. REUTERS/Pierre Albouy

Martin Griffiths, the outgoing UN envoy to Yemen, gave his final briefing to the UN Security Council on 15 June, painting what he said was a “bleak picture” of stalled efforts to broker a ceasefire and initiate talks over ending the country’s six-year civil war. Elite Yemeni and diplomatic circles are now abuzz with speculation about who will replace Griffiths, whom the UN has named as its new top humanitarian official. Yet the better question is not who the envoy will be, but what job description the new person will have. The situation in Yemen has changed significantly since the war broke out, and it is time for mediation efforts to catch up.…  Seguir leyendo »

With tough questions being asked on Capitol Hill and about 80 members of Congress calling for pressure on Saudi Arabia to lift its blockade of Yemen, it cannot be long before the Biden administration will be expected to deliver real results to end a six-year conflict that has caused what the United Nations says is the world's worst humanitarian crisis.

The supply of aid and the lifting of the blockade would save countless lives. Yet they are consequences of the conflict, not its cause. Addressing them alone will not bring an end to war.

Neither will they change the fact that a ceasefire plan backed by the Biden administration and the Saudis has been rejected by the Houthi rebels who took control of the capital Sanaa in September 2014, with Yemen's president going into exile when the Saudi bombing campaign started in early 2015.…  Seguir leyendo »

I’ll use this month’s President’s Take to highlight two places where we’re worried things could fall apart further over the month ahead, at enormous human cost.

First is Yemen. The UN calls the war the world’s worst humanitarian disaster.

It has left almost a quarter of a million people dead, more than half from malnutrition and disease. Many millions more are starving, displaced or homeless. The UN’s humanitarian chief recently warned of the “worst famine the world has seen in decades”. Four hundred thousand children under the age of five are severely malnourished, he said, and “in their last weeks and months” of life.…  Seguir leyendo »

Smoke billows during clashes between forces loyal to Yemen's Saudi-backed government and Huthi rebel fighters in al-Jadaan area about 50 kilometres northwest of Marib in central Yemen on 11 February 2021. Yemen's Iran-backed Huthis rebels have resumed an AFP

In early February, the rebel Huthi movement (also known as Ansar Allah) reinvigorated its year-long offensive in Yemen’s northern governorate of Marib, launching an intense assault and making territorial and strategic gains in the province’s west. Huthi forces are now reportedly within 30km of Marib city, the ousted government’s last major northern stronghold, and the capital of a governorate whose original population of 300,000 has been swollen by internally displaced persons to perhaps as many as three million. The Huthis have signalled their clear intent to press on, absent a nationwide truce that halts Saudi airstrikes, allows them to reopen the airport in Yemen’s capital city, Sanaa, and permits them to more easily bring goods through Hodeida, the Red Sea port that they control.…  Seguir leyendo »

A Yemeni looks through the wreckage of a building after it was hit by an airstrike on the northern outskirts of the capital, Sanaa, in 2017. (Yahya Arhab/EPA)

In early February, the Biden administration announced several shifts in U.S. policy toward the war in Yemen — a conflict that has left 20 million near starvation and 80 percent of Yemen’s population dependent on humanitarian assistance. The changes include ending U.S. support for Saudi-led offensive operations; reversing the Trump administration’s last-minute designation of the Houthi forces as a foreign terrorist organization; and supporting a special envoy to Yemen and diplomatic efforts to end the conflict.

After 2015, the United States played a critical role in sustaining the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen. U.S. support provided Saudi Arabia with intelligence, targeting data, in-air refueling of Saudi aircraft (this ceased in 2018), sales of precision-guided munitions and other arms, and ongoing maintenance and support for Saudi aircraft.…  Seguir leyendo »

A woman walks in the old city of the Yemeni capital, Sanaa. July 2019. CRISISGROUP/Peter Salisbury.

In December 2018, Western and international policymakers demonstrated something that Yemenis had long suspected: when motivated by developments on the ground or at home, they can produce (some) diplomatic results, as the United States did by pressuring Saudi Arabia and by extension the internationally recognised government of Yemen into accepting the UN-brokered Stockholm Agreement. The deal, which averted a battle for the Red Sea port of Hodeida, is the signature diplomatic success story to date in the ongoing Yemeni conflict that began in late 2014. For the warring parties and to Yemeni and international observers, however, the agreement also symbolises the limits of external mediation in resolving the conflict: international pressure forced the parties to endorse the deal, but not to implement it.…  Seguir leyendo »

El conflicto de larga data en Yemen está más maduro que nunca para lograr una solución. Los distintos bandos yemeníes han quedado exhaustos por la lucha y aceptaron rápidamente el llamado en marzo de António Guterres, secretario general de las Naciones Unidas, a un alto el fuego mundial por la pandemia de la COVID-19. El mes siguiente, la coalición en Yemen liderada por los sauditas anunció un alto el fuego unilateral de dos semanas, que luego extendió.

Los bandos enfrentados ya lograron avances significativos hacia un acuerdo de alto el fuego en negociaciones coordinadas por el enviado especial para Yemen de la ONU, Martin Griffiths.…  Seguir leyendo »

A reinforcement convoy of Yemen's Security Belt Force dominated by members of the the Southern Transitional Council (STC) heading to Abyan province, Yemen. AFP/Saleh Al-OBEIDI

On 25 April, the secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) declared self-rule in areas of Yemen’s south that were part of an independent state prior to unification with the north in 1990. The declaration came on the heels of escalating tensions between the STC and the Yemeni government, nominal allies in the fight against Huthi rebels based in the northern highlands. It also came as the UN struggled to engineer a nationwide ceasefire and COVID-19 response plan. STC forces quickly took control of ministries, local government offices and the Central Bank building in Aden, the government’s temporary headquarters since the Huthis pushed it out of the capital Sanaa in 2015. …  Seguir leyendo »

Libyan Army soldiers wear masks to protect themselves from the coronavirus during a military operation in Tripoli, on March 25. Credit Amru Salahuddien/Anadolu Agency, via Getty Images

On a recent visit to Libya, I met a family living in an improvised shelter in a displaced persons camp east of Tripoli. One of the tens of thousands Libyan families uprooted by war, the family of seven was living in a room barely 20 paces long and half as wide. A clothesline, a pile of mattresses, a hot plate and the stench of body odor filled the room. Outside, they faced a shortage of potable water and abusive taunts from locals.

The spread of the novel coronavirus will have a devastating effect on the Middle East’s communities of refugees and migrants.…  Seguir leyendo »

Sudan’s prime minister announced last weekend that Sudan began drawing down its forces in Yemen, saying “there is no military solution” to the conflict. This marks another step in the Saudi-led coalition’s de facto drawdown, after the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced its own withdrawal over the summer and Saudi Arabia began engaging in Oman-led peace talks with the Houthis this fall.

What does the intervening coalition’s slow but steady drawdown mean for Yemen’s civil war? While there is still a long way to go to reach a lasting peace in Yemen, this moment probably marks the beginning of the end of the war — or at least this phase of the war.…  Seguir leyendo »

Une équipe du Croissant-Rouge à Dhamar, le 1er septembre. Photo Mohamed al-Sayaghi. Reuters

 En tant que Yéménite et humanitaire, je constate chaque jour l’impact de cette guerre sur la santé des Yéménites, sur l’accès à la nourriture, à l’eau potable, aux médicaments et aux structures de soins. Je vois la mise à mal de l’avenir de nos enfants, privés d’école, affamés et traumatisés psychologiquement. Comment accepter que des enfants puissent être pris pour cible ? Comment accepter qu’une femme enceinte ne puisse être suivie pendant sa grossesse ? Comment accepter que nos grands-parents ne puissent bénéficier des soins adéquats ? Il ne s’agit pas de politique, mais de la vie de 30 millions de Yéménites.…  Seguir leyendo »