Afghanistan’s newly inaugurated president, Ashraf Ghani, appears to be off to a good start with the Afghan people. He has announced a series of new initiatives and adopted a hands-on style of governing, including surprise visits to military posts, police stations and hospitals. A recent survey by Afghan pollsters found that more than 8 out of 10 Afghans approve of his performance in his first month in office.
But Mr. Ghani and his partner and chief executive in the new unity government, Abdullah Abdullah, will have their work cut out for them in maintaining high approval ratings given the severity of the problems confronting the Afghan people, as identified in a survey directed by the Asia Foundation in Kabul that is to be released Tuesday. The complete survey will be available at the foundation’s Web site, asiafoundation.org.
This is the 10th year that this survey has been undertaken. More than 900 experienced Afghan interviewers polled some 9,300 Afghans, half of them men, half women, across all of the country’s 34 provinces. The polling took place following the presidential runoff election in June and before the new unity government took office on Sept. 29th. The survey’s margin of error is miniscule, less than 2 percent.
The No. 1 concern of Afghans is their personal security, which is not surprising given the withdrawal of much of the United States and NATO security forces and intensified Taliban attacks across the country. In the latest survey, 65 percent of respondents said they fear for their own and their family’s safety some or all the time, a significant jump from 59 percent in 2013.
One encouraging note is a rising level of trust in Afghan security forces — 86 percent of those polled expressed confidence in the army. Still, over half the Afghan people (56 percent) say they think their country’s security forces will continue to need foreign support. One of Mr. Ghani’s first acts as president, to sign longer-term bilateral security agreements with both the United States and NATO, was a popular move.
Nearly three-quarters of Afghans (73 percent) say that reconciliation with the Taliban and other armed opposition groups like the Pakistan-based Haqqani network and Hezb-i-Islami militants in the northeast could help stabilize the country. Mr. Ghani has already visited Saudi Arabia, China and Pakistan, seeking support for his efforts to end the conflict. His willingness to go the extra mile by offering to include the Taliban in an inter-Afghan dialogue, however unlikely the outcome, is of some comfort to the war-weary Afghans.
The second biggest concern of the Afghans, as reflected in the survey, is corruption — especially with the bribes, gifts and favors required in dealing with the judicial system and municipal or district authorities. The perception of corruption as a major problem in daily life rose significantly from 56 percent in 2013 to 62 percent this year.
Mr. Ghani has acknowledged that corruption has had a corrosive effect on people’s confidence in all governing institutions. He has made combating it a major priority. His efforts to re-open a prominent case involving fraud at Kabul Bank is getting results — both the former chairman and the chief executive of the bank have just received 15-year prison sentences for their involvement in the $900 million embezzlement scandal. And just over a week ago Kabul announced that a new central procurement office will be created to help combat corruption, with all major projects passing through the president’s office for review.
Unemployment is the third major concern cited by the Afghan people. In 2009, around a quarter of those polled put it at the top of their local concerns; now it’s cited by one third of the respondents. Women say the lack of job opportunities is one of the biggest problems they face. Mr. Ghani’s Ministry of Women’s Affairs has welcomed a new $216 million program financed by U.S.A.I.D. to help train women in the fields of management, governance and leadership.
The combination of these Afghan concerns — insecurity, corruption and unemployment — add up to a daunting challenge for the new government. But one finding of this year’s survey is encouraging: Despite all the difficulties and hardships the country’s new leaders are facing, 55 percent of Afghans say they believe their country is moving in the right direction.
Afghans are not giving up on their country; nor should the international community.
Theodore L. Eliot Jr., U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan from 1973 to 1978, is dean emeritus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. Karl F. Inderfurth, assistant U.S. secretary of state for South Asian affairs from 1997 to 2001, is a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Both have served as trustees of the Asia Foundation.