Aaron David Miller (Continuación)

MundoOriente Próximo,

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is on a roll. Against the odds, Israeli-Palestinian negotiations are alive; the U.S.-Russia agreement for removing Syria’s chemical weapons is working; and the U.S.-Afghan security pact is almost final.

In trying to convene a United Nations-sponsored meeting to end Syria’s civil war, however, Kerry may be overreaching.

Last week, along with the “London 11” -- which represents the core group of nations belonging to the Friends of the Syrian People -- Kerry seemed determined to push for a round of meetings in Geneva, perhaps as early as next month.

That would be a mistake. Middle East peace conferences have historically been good for one of two things: beginning a credible negotiation process or concluding one.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

If you like happy Hollywood endings, go to the movies. The Obama administration's effort to negotiate a deal on the nuclear issue with Iran's mullahs is going to be a wild and unpredictable ride. And for a lot of reasons, reaching a happy conclusion will be tough.

A deal on Iran's nuclear program is partly about shutting down centrifuges, exporting uranium stocks, capping enrichment activities. It will require inspections, safeguards and the dismantling of sanctions.

But at its heart, the deal will involve politics. Iran will feel a need to demonstrate to its people and the world that it will not allow the West, and the United States in particular, to dictate its future.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAméricaMundoOriente Próximo, ,

If you want to know the prime reason President Barack Obama didn't want to bomb Syria and why the Syrian deal on chemical weapons may actually work out, however imperfectly, think one word: Iran.

Sure the limited military option against Syria was always imperfect; it would neither have ended Syria's chemical weapons capacity nor removed its president, Bashar al-Assad. There was almost no public or congressional support for a military strike either. And one of the strategic objectives of the Obama presidency was getting America out of profitless wars, not into new ones.

But motivating the president too was the challenge and opportunity of Iran.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAméricaMundoOriente Próximo, ,

Among the most enduring urban legends about high-level policy-making in the U.S. government is the proverbial memo with three options: 1. do nothing; 2. do everything; 3. find a middle ground and muddle through.

And yet in truth, Barack Obama really does have only three options in Syria. It appears that the president, rightly the avoider-in-chief when it comes to Syria, has chosen option three, the least bad alternative. And here's why.

Do nothing

This isn't really an option. Forget the fact that the president a year ago drew his own red line against Bashar al-Assad's use of chemical weapons. Disregard the reality that this is reportedly the largest single deployment of chemical weapons since Saddam Hussein used them against the Kurds in 1988; dismiss the fact that 100,000 Syrians have died in this civil conflict; and the president is accused of fiddling, Nero-like, while Syria burns.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo

The United States isn’t responsible for the recent violent confrontations in Egypt, but it is stunningly clear that the Obama administration’s approach to the Arab uprisings is in shambles. Cataclysmic upheavals like those coursing through the Arab world are rare; rarer still is a second chance at shaping the outcome of such change. Yet this is what the crisis in Egypt offers. The United States and its European allies need to broaden the international community’s narrow focus on the Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian military and seize the opportunity to craft — in partnership with Egypt and other Arab states in transition — the architecture necessary to sustain democratic change.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

Here we go again. This week, Israeli-Palestinian negotiations will begin in Israel and the West Bank.

Having participated in my own fair share of these kinds of negotiations over the years, I wouldn't presume to discount Secretary of State John Kerry's effort. But I also wouldn't get my hopes up.

In 2001, Secretary of State Colin Powell assigned me to assist Gen. Anthony Zinni, who had just been given a mission impossible: Negotiate a cease-fire between Yasser Arafat and Ariel Sharon in the middle of the second intifada.

I asked Zinni straight out why he wanted to risk ruining a brilliant career on a goal he couldn't possibly achieve.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

The success of Secretary of State John Kerry in leading Israelis and Palestinians to resume negotiations is presenting the United States with an immense challenge.

Right now, there’s almost no chance of achieving a conflict-ending agreement; yet by pressing the Israelis and Palestinians back toward the table, the United States has assumed responsibility for producing one.

Above all, the Americans now need to lower expectations and find a realistic focus for the talks. That means pushing for an agreement on borders and security first, without precluding discussion of Jerusalem and refugees too.

Many have questioned why Mr. Kerry is focusing on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, while Syria is embroiled in civil war, Egypt is in political crisis, and Iran is moving to develop a nuclear weapons capacity.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

Having analyzed and worked on the Arab-Israeli peace process for more than 40 years, my initial reaction to Secretary of State John F. Kerry’s success in getting the Israelis and the Palestinians to resume talks was predictably negative: He may get them to the negotiating table, but he cannot keep them there, let alone reach an agreement.

After all, the last time I had a role in this movie — the historic Camp David summit of July 2000 — the circumstances seemed much more propitious than they do now. The cast of characters included an Israeli prime minister who risked more on the big issues than any of his predecessors had, a Palestinian leader who presided over a unified national movement and had the respect of his people, and a committed U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAméricaReflexionesIslam y Mundo Árabe

El maltrato que ha sufrido la imagen de Estados Unidos en los últimos días refleja que la ira de Medio Oriente contra nuestro país tiene raíces profundas. No somos la razón principal de que Medio Oriente esté hecho pedazos. Los árabes deben asumir su cuota de responsabilidad. Miren los casos de Siria y Egipto.

Somos, sin embargo, una parte importante de esta historia. Algunos extremistas islámicos nos atacan porque no comparten los valores occidentales; otros ven en todos lados conspiraciones estadounidenses para terminar con la independencia, orgullo y dignidad de árabes y musulmanes.

Pero una vez que te alejas de estas cuestiones periféricas, descubres que la realidad es también inquietante: millones de árabes y musulmanes nos aborrecen no por quiénes somos sino por lo que hacemos.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

The looming resignation of Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, announced last week, may be very bad news for the prospects of good governance in Palestine. But it has the potential to inject clarity and honesty into the problems of the much-too-promised land. Fayyad's departure may help to dispel four dangerous myths that continue to distort the way different constituencies view the issues that divide the region. It's time we lay them to rest. They are:

The myth of Palestinian unity

Now that Fayyad is leaving, the way should be clearer for serious discussions between Hamas and Fatah about achieving reconciliation and unity.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

Who lost Syria? Comments of some U.S. senators, analysts and journalists, including the editorial board of this newspaper, suggest there is no doubt: Bashar al-Assad and his thugocracy are primarily responsible for the killings, but the tragedy of Syria is also a direct result of a terrible failure of leadership on the part of the international community, and of the United States in particular.

Syria, it is charged, is Barack Obama’s Rwanda.

Don’t believe it.

The idea that Syria was anyone’s to win or lose, or that the United States could significantly shape the outcome there, is typical of the arrogant paternalism and flawed analysis that have gotten this country into heaps of trouble in the Middle East over the years.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo

Since leaving government almost a decade ago, my analysis of matters Middle Eastern has been, well, annoyingly negative.

And the reason? Best summed up in a line often attributed to Groucho Marx but actually uttered by Chico: "Well, who are you gonna believe, me or your own eyes?"

What I see is an angry, broken, dysfunctional region that wants to transcend itself and resolve the conflicts that hold it back, but just can't. And I'm not at all sure there's a whole lot America -- that indispensable nation -- can do about it.

Here are my predictions for 2013 on some of the key issues.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

Confrontation between Israel and Hamas is an old movie. But the grim version playing out now -- with Hamas rockets, particularly use of a long range Fajr 5, aimed at Tel Aviv , Israeli airstrikes and the killing of a top Hamas official -- contains new and disturbing scenes. That said, there is reason to hope this won't turn into a complete disaster film. And Egypt may well be the key.

The last time Israel and Hamas tangled, in 2008 and 2009, the result was mayhem that left as many as 1,400 Palestinians dead, saw Israelis terrified and living in shelters, and destroyed large areas of Gaza.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo, ,

Without firing a shot, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has achieved remarkable results in his efforts to counter Iran's nuclear program.

In little more than a year, the prime minister has managed to move the Iran nuclear issue to the top of the international agenda, to toughen sanctions, and in an extraordinary move, to push U.S. President Barack Obama to strengthen American policy so that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons became the focus, rather than just containing Iran and its nuclear program.

Indeed, if you throw in Republican challenger Mitt Romney's unwillingness to accept Iran even having the capacity to produce a nuke, Netanyahu's record is even better.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo

If someone asked me to sum up in a sentence where Israel will be a decade from now, I’d paraphrase Dickens: It will be neither the best nor worst of times. The Israelis will prosper and keep their state, but the Arabs and Iranians will never let them completely enjoy it.

What drives many Israelis and the government that represents them is not a Scrooge-like Christmas Eve glimpse of a terrifying future, but a strange mix of accomplishment, comfort and anxiety that reinforces the desire to maintain the status quo, particularly on the Palestinian issue. And that attitude is not going to change anytime soon.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo

Whatever Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton is carrying in her attache case as she visits Egypt this weekend, it won't be nearly enough to begin to fix what ails the U.S.-Egyptian relationship.

Beneath the "isn't democracy wonderful (and messy)" platitudes emanating from the State Department, and the diplomatic smiles and niceties surrounding Clinton's visit, three fundamental contradictions are likely to keep America's ties with Egypt in the doldrums for some time to come. We should face up to them sooner rather than later.

First, the democracy problem. The last 18 months witnessed not so much a revolution in Egypt as a regime reconstitution married to a historic opening up of the political system.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo

On Saturday, the "let's make ourselves feel better" club will convene in Geneva to try to figure out what to do about Syria.

The motives of those gathering in Geneva at the invitation of U.N. Special Envoy Kofi Annan -- the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council (United States, France, China, Britain and Russia), plus Turkey and a number of Arab league members including Iraq and Qatar -- are well-intentioned. Their concern over the continued killing, more than 12,000 dead with thousands more wounded and imprisoned, is understandable.

But sadly, the results of the Geneva meeting, even with some added wind at its back (the Turks are madder than ever at Syria for downing a Turkish reconnaissance plane earlier this week), are not likely to produce much new.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo

Is Syria Barack Obama's Rwanda? The Stanford University scholar, Fouad Ajami, usually an astute and wise observer on matters Middle Eastern, raised this question (and false analogy) with CNN's Anderson Cooper several weeks ago.

Comparing atrocities is a profitless and cruel but still -- at times -- an important exercise, at least for some perspective. Rwanda was a comprehensive and directed genocide in which Hutus killed 10,000 Tutsis a day during three months in 1994. It wasn't a regime against rebels or a civil war; it was a systematic extermination.

No, Syria isn't Rwanda; and it's certainly not Barack Obama's primary responsibility.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo

Earlier this week, the Syrian government accepted a peace plan proposed by Kofi Annan, the former United Nations secretary general. Mr. Annan’s six-point initiative to resolve the crisis in Syria calls for a “political process” to address the Syrian people’s aspirations, a cessation of fighting and troop movements, quicker release of political prisoners, and allowing humanitarian aid, access for journalists and greater freedom of assembly.

Although it is well intentioned, Mr. Annan’s plan won’t end the crisis; it will make it worse.

The plan is an ill-timed lifeline to a murderous regime that will exploit Mr. Annan’s diplomacy to buy time, to reload and to divide the opposition and the international community.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAmérica,

Myths and facts conflate all too easily in our opinion-driven politics. One of the most dangerous these days is that President Obama’s Iran policy has been taken hostage by election year pandering to Israel and the pro-Israel community in America.

It’s a pernicious trope that runs counter to reality. If anything, election year uncertainties will work far more to make Obama a cautious warrior when it comes to green lighting an Israeli attack against Iran or launching one of his own.

The notion that 5.5 million American Jews in tight alliance with the country’s evangelical Christians hold America’s Middle East policy hostage is one of the most dangerous yet enduring myths of American politics and foreign policy.…  Seguir leyendo »