Aaron L. Friedberg

Este archivo solo abarca los artículos del autor incorporados a este sitio a partir del 1 de septiembre de 2006. Para fechas anteriores realice una búsqueda entrecomillando su nombre.

At an AI conference in Shanghai, July 2024. John Ricky / Anadolu / Getty Images

MundoAsia

Twenty-five years after the beginning of the first so-called China shock, when a surge in Chinese exports disrupted manufacturing and industrial sectors worldwide, Beijing has again begun to flood global markets with a wave of heavily subsidized manufactured goods and materials—including everything from metals and textiles to more cutting-edge products such as electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and semiconductors. In more economically advanced countries, this influx threatens to upend emerging technology sectors and derail post-pandemic plans to “de-risk” economies by shifting supply chains away from China. In the developing world, a new tsunami of cheap imports could disrupt plans for industrialization and modernization.…  Seguir leyendo »

InternacionalOrden Mundial

Three times in the past century, the countries of the democratic West have tried and failed to create a global order built on the same liberal principles as their domestic political regimes. Following the first world war, America’s allies baulked at President Woodrow Wilson’s revolutionary vision for a system of states based on self-determination, free trade and international law. America then retreated into isolation and its erstwhile European partners grew apart, emboldening fascist aggression and setting the stage for the next great conflagration.

As the second world war drew to a close the alliance between the democratic powers and the Soviet Union broke down, dooming any hope of reviving Wilson’s dream.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia

The Chinese Communist Party's power has long rested on four pillars: economic growth, nationalism, repression and communist ideology. The last of these withered away almost entirely as China liberalized its economy, with slogans such as "Long live the invincible Marxism-Leninism theory" replaced by "To get rich is glorious." Now the first pillar is unstable too.

All eyes are on the gyrating Chinese stock market. Its precipitous decline and the surprise devaluation of the renminbi have been roiling world markets and stoking fears of currency wars and beggar-thy-neighbor trade policies. Given that only about 1% of our gross domestic product comes from trade with China, the U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia, ,

AMERICA’S fiscal woes are placing the country on a path of growing strategic risk in Asia.

With Democrats eager to protect social spending and Republicans anxious to avoid tax hikes, and both saying the national debt must be brought under control, we can expect sustained efforts to slash the defense budget. Over the next 10 years, cuts in planned spending could total half a trillion dollars. Even as the Pentagon saves money by pulling back from Afghanistan and Iraq, there will be fewer dollars with which to buy weapons or develop new ones.

Unfortunately, those constraints are being imposed just as America faces a growing strategic challenge.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia,

Though the hour is late and the odds long, there is still a chance that North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il can be persuaded to give up his nuclear arsenal.

Despite what many have suggested, this cannot be achieved simply through face-to-face negotiations or by offering security guarantees and economic aid. Kim is a cynical realist and will not exchange his nuclear capabilities for empty acts of diplomatic deference or what he would doubtless regard as mere scraps of paper. The hope that he might be tempted to ease the suffering of his people is also sadly misplaced. Kim has been described by psychological profilers as a "malignant narcissist"; he cares only for himself and is indifferent to the pain of others.…  Seguir leyendo »