Adam E. Casey

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A Taliban fighter looks at Taliban flags and posters of leaders in Kabul on Aug. 25. (AP)

MundoOriente Próximo

Taliban political leader Abdul Ghani Baradar arrived in Kabul after two decades in exile, promising to form a coalition government — one that the Taliban would almost certainly control. But the frantic efforts this week by foreigners and Afghans seeking to exit the country, and Thursday’s bombings at the Kabul airport, do little to suggest a calm transition to Taliban rule.

By seizing power through a military victory against an incumbent regime, the Taliban joins the ranks of dozens of other regimes over the past 75 years that formed after successful armed rebellion. Our research suggests the Taliban will confront an immediate hurdle: holding its ranks together before it can hope to consolidate control over Afghanistan.…  Seguir leyendo »

Opposition demonstrators rally to pressure Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to resign in Yerevan, Armenia, on March 1. (Hrant Khachatryan/PAN/AP)

MundoCáucaso

On Feb. 25, Armenia’s top military leadership called on Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to resign. This threat came in the form of a letter signed by “several dozen” army officers, who cited “attacks” on the armed forces by the government. On Monday, pro-Pashinyan supporters demonstrated in one part of the capital while protesters demanding his resignation rallied at a separate site.

It isn’t clear what the next moves might be — and whether the army will attempt to forcibly remove the civilian government. But military coups are extremely rare in the countries that once made up the Soviet Union, so analysts are keeping a close eye on the situation and the potential effect on regional politics.…  Seguir leyendo »

People walk in Red Square, with St. Basil’s Cathedral in the background, in central Moscow in February 2015. (Maxim Zmeyev/Reuters)

Europa, ,

Russian interference in the 2016 election has gotten an enormous amount of U.S. media attention. But Russia has been intervening in foreign elections for decades. Has it been effective?

We decided to find out. To assess the impact of Russian meddling, we put together and examined a data set of all 27 Russian electoral interventions since 1991.

We identified two waves of Russian meddling since the early 1990s. The first wave lasted until 2014 and targeted only post-Soviet countries. Since then, a second wave has expanded dramatically into established Western democracies.

However, an examination of both of these waves shows that Russia’s efforts have made little difference.…  Seguir leyendo »