Alex Vines

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Joe Biden shakes hands with Joao Lourenco during a meeting in the Oval Office on 30 November 2023. (Photo by ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images)

MundoÁfrica

President Joe Biden’s trip to Angola next week is his first to Africa as president, and the first visit to Angola by an American leader since independence from Portugal in 1975.

It comes as the governing People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) party prepares to celebrate 50 years of rule, and Angola gets ready to host the US–Africa Business Summit in mid-2025.

The Biden administration has tried to increase its Africa engagement since 2021, through sharpened focus within its Africa network, increased official visits and important new initiatives such as the Lobito Corridor.

The Corridor is planned as part of the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII), a G7 initiative designed to compete with Chinese influence head on, in Africa and beyond.…  Seguir leyendo »

Chinese guards welcome Ghana's President Nana Akufo-Addo at the Beijing airport ahead of the 2024 Summit of the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) on 3 September 2024. Photo by Wu Hao - Pool via Getty Images.

MundoÁfricaMundoAsia

The ninth Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, which ended on 6 September, demonstrated both continuity and change in China’s partnerships with Africa.

Less grandiose than the 2018 iteration, the summit nonetheless highlighted China’s continued attraction for African leaders. 51 African heads of state were present – many more than are scheduled to speak at the UN General Assembly this month. However, the summit also revealed potential tensions between China’s geopolitical ambition and the views of a diverse and rapidly changing continent.

Debt and sovereignty

The first point of contention is over debt. China stopped short of offering broad-based debt relief at FOCAC, which many African states hoped for to allay rising concerns over debt sustainability.…  Seguir leyendo »

President Cyril Ramaphosa speaks to people attending his inauguration at the south lawns of the Union Buildings in Pretoria on June 19, 2024. (Photo by PHILL MAGAKOE/AFP via Getty Images)

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Although Cyril Ramaphosa has just been sworn in for a second term as president of South Africa, it is not thanks to voter endorsement of his African National Congress (ANC). The party for the first time lost its parliamentary majority in the elections on 29 May.

Having governed South Africa since the country’s first democratic elections in 1994, the ANC has now formed a centrist coalition government with its main rival, the Democratic Alliance (DA), and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP).

Various headlines describe this as a new era for South Africa. While coalition rule is not unusual in southern African countries, the electoral experience of the ANC – one of the continent’s oldest liberation movements – serves as a warning to other liberation leaders not to take voters for granted.…  Seguir leyendo »

Chinese People's Liberation Army personnel attending the opening ceremony of China's new military base in Djibouti on 1 August 2017. (Photo by STR/AFP via Getty Images).

MundoÁfricaMundoAsia,

For over three decades, every Chinese foreign minister’s first overseas trip of the year has been to Africa. This year continued the tradition with China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, visiting Egypt, Tunisia, Togo and Côte d’Ivoire. Notably, every one of these countries is coastal. And yet, at a time of continued speculation over China’s next military installation in Africa, none of these countries has featured prominently as potential locations in previous analyses.

We might, therefore, reasonably ask what China’s current considerations are around basing in Africa. Faced with an increasingly multipolar and assertive Africa at a time of domestic economic challenge, however, China’s long-term strategy remains unclear.…  Seguir leyendo »

What’s at stake for Africa in 2024?

MundoÁfrica

Africa in 2024 will be the second fastest-growing economic region in the world (after Asia) at 4 per cent, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but behind the headline figure is a less auspicious reality.

Fresh conflict, more military coups, the renewed Israel–Gaza conflict and the lingering Russia–Ukraine war are contributing to stifling better growth across the continent.

Many African states were already suffering due to slow post-COVID-19 recovery, climate change shocks, increased food insecurity, political instability, weak global growth and high interest rates. 33 of the continent’s states are classified as least developed. These economic shocks have pushed an estimated 55 million people into poverty since 2020 and reversed more than two decades of progress in poverty reduction.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian President Vladimir Putin greeting Burkina Faso's junta leader Captain Ibrahim Traore during a welcoming ceremony at the second Russia-Africa summit in St Petersburg on 27 July 2023. Photo by PAVEL BEDNYAKOV/POOL/AFP via Getty Images.

MundoÁfricaEuropa

Of the 49 African countries that sent delegations to St Petersburg for the second Russia-Africa summit on 27–28 July, only 17 heads of state attended. This is down significantly from the first such summit in 2019 – and much lower than the number of leaders who attended the December 2022 US-Africa summit.

At the 2019 summit, Putin had sought to rekindle relations established during the Cold War and pledged to double trade with African countries to $40 billion in five years – but trade has stalled at $18 billion. This time, Moscow pledged to wipe out debts worth $23 billion and announced military cooperation agreements with over 40 African countries.…  Seguir leyendo »

Despite the promise of technology and new legislation, Nigeria’s tightly contested elections have resulted in growing mistrust and revealed deepening divides

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In Nigeria’s previous elections, votes were largely split between two parties – the APC of outgoing President Buhari and the PDP that held power from 1999 to 2015. This time, the 25 February vote saw four different presidential candidates win majorities at state level. President-elect Bola Tinubu received the least number of votes, and lowest winning percentage, of any victor in the Fourth Republic (1999 to date), taking just 36.6 per cent of the total votes cast. The runners-up have already started legal challenges to his win.

This increasingly fractured electoral landscape demonstrates the extent of Nigeria’s political divisions and makes assessing the accuracy of results announced by the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) exceptionally difficult.…  Seguir leyendo »

Members of environmental activist group Vacances Verte participate in a march in Dakar, Senegal, ahead of COP27 in Egypt. Photo by GUY PETERSON/AFP via Getty Images.

MundoÁfrica

Africa’s economy was recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2022 when a range of internal and external shocks struck such as adverse weather conditions, a devastating locust invasion, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine – all of which worsened already rapidly-rising rates of inflation and borrowing costs.

Although the direct trade and financial linkages of Africa with Russia and Ukraine are small, the war has damaged the continent’s economies through higher commodity prices, higher food, fuel, and headline inflation.

The main impact is on the increasing likelihood of civil strife because of food and energy-fuelled inflation amid an environment of heightened political instability.…  Seguir leyendo »

10 Downing Street in London, United Kingdom as seen on 05 September 2022 as Liz Truss was announced as the UK's next prime minister. Photo: Rasid Necati Aslim/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images.

Europa

It says something of the UK that the incoming prime minister has ordered a rewrite of British foreign policy barely 18 months after the last one was published.

Liz Truss, who has become the fourth prime minister in Downing Street in six turbulent years, is not prone to risk aversion or offering bland reassurances. She made clear during the campaign for the Conservative leadership that she wants the 2021 Integrated Review redrawn with a far greater focus on combating the ‘growing malign influence’ of Russia and China. She has also pledged to increase defence spending from its current 2.1 per cent of GDP, to 2.7 per cent, and then to 3 per cent by 2030, which will include more support for the intelligence services and cyber security, a further £10 billion overall at a time when public finances are in dire straits.…  Seguir leyendo »

An official shows an empty ballot box during the counting of votes at the end of the 2017 general election in Luanda, which marked the end of President Jose Eduardo dos Santos's 38-year reign in Angola. Photo by MARCO LONGARI/AFP via Getty Images.

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The electoral contest in Angola – which officially started on 24 July – is fiercely competitive. An Afrobarometer survey in May found the opposition National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) party was trailing the governing Movement for Popular Liberation of Angola (MPLA) party by just seven percentage points, with around half of voters still undecided.

The ruling MPLA is headed by current president João Lourenço and the UNITA party is led by Adalberto Costa Júnior. A decision in May by the Constitutional Court to rule UNITA had to campaign on its own and not as part of an opposition coalition is a reminder that the MPLA capitalizes on its incumbency.…  Seguir leyendo »

Young man with a Malian flag during a demonstration in Bamako to celebrate France's announcement to withdraw troops from Mali. Photo by FLORENT VERGNES/AFP via Getty Images.

MundoÁfrica

This meeting comes at a watershed moment, following President Macron’s announcement that the French are pulling their troops out of Mali. This follows a spate of coups in this region, successful in Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Mali, and Sudan, unsuccessful in Guinea Bissau and Niger.

However well-trained by the West some of these soldiers are, some are developing a putschist appetite. This has resulted in a moment of increasing self-doubt among some of the key Minusma – the United Nations (UN) Mali peacekeeping mission – contributors who are reviewing their options on how to respond to a widening Sahel crisis at a time that they are also having to forensically focus on Ukraine.…  Seguir leyendo »

Chinese president Xi Jinping delivers his speech during the November 2021 China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) meeting in Dakar, Senegal, pledging to offer one billion COVID-19 vaccine doses to Africa. Photo by SEYLLOU/AFP via Getty Imag

MundoÁfrica

More than 20 low-income African countries were in debt distress or at risk of debt distress in autumn 2021 according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The good news is that while overall debt levels have generally risen, action requested by African governments from development finance institutions (DFIs) and multilateral lenders has meant many African countries have been able to support their economies without taking on too much additional private debt.

The IMF has also allocated Africa $33 billion in special drawing rights (SDRs), providing an immediate liquidity boost without adding to the debt portfolio.

At the same time, the G20’s short-term crisis management tool – the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) – has just ended and its intended replacement – the ‘Common Framework for Debt Treatment beyond the DSSI’ – has been implemented far more slowly than originally envisaged with only Chad, Ethiopia and Zambia engaging with it so far.…  Seguir leyendo »

The fourth bridge at Abidjan under construction which connects the cities of Yopougon and Plateau in Côte d'Ivoire. Photo by SIA KAMBOU/AFP via Getty Images.

MundoÁfrica

2022 is already shaping up to be a year of mixed fortunes for Africa if the events of this first week are a harbinger.

A possible arson attack of South Africa’s parliament, the military junta in Mali claiming it aspires to govern for five years, and prime minister Abdalla Hamdok resigning in Sudan – leaving the military in full-control again and General Burhan stating that Sudan is now working towards holding national elections in July 2023 – are all reminders of the fragility of African democracy.

Democratic advances and retreats

Since the start of the decade, there have been successful or attempted coups in Guinea, Mali, Sudan, Chad, and Niger.…  Seguir leyendo »

A woman who lost a relative stands next to the plaque bearing the names of those killed in the 1998 bombing of the US embassy in Nairobi, Kenya. Photo by TONY KARUMBA/AFP via Getty Images.

MundoÁfricaMundoAméricaInternacionalTerrorismo Internacional, ,

Osama Bin-Laden’s masterminding of the US embassy bombings in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam in August 1998 saw more than 200 people killed – including a friend of mine – in nearly simultaneous truck bomb explosions linked to local supporters of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad and Al-Qaeda.

Living in Nairobi at the time, I had been in the embassy to collect a US visa a couple of days before the attack but my Kenyan friend was not so lucky and was killed. Both US embassies were badly damaged – in Nairobi, a memorial park was constructed on the site with a new embassy built elsewhere while Dar es Salaam got a new highly fortified embassy with a monument to the victims in its grounds.…  Seguir leyendo »

Kenneth Kaunda at a Commonwealth Summit as Zambian president. After the former British colony gained its independence in 1964, Kaunda was elected president, a position he held until 1991. Photo by Peter Turnley/Corbis/VCG via Getty Images.

MundoÁfrica

During his 9,860 days in office from 1964, Kenneth Kaunda fought for majority rule of his neighbours, hosting the headquarters of the ANC and SWAPO in Lusaka and after losing elections in 1991 he left office graciously and became a campaigner for HIV and youth engagement.

In 1960 Kaunda took over the leadership of the United National Independence party (UNIP) and it swept to victory in the independence election of 1964, ending Zambia’s legal status as a British protectorate. Almost immediately, Kaunda was confronted by the white Rhodesian rebels’ unilateral declaration of independence on 11 November 1965.

Independent Zambia became a one-party state under Kaunda (widely known as KK), who banned all political parties except UNIP in 1972.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoÁfricaInternacionalTerrorismo Internacional,

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) will hold a two-day extraordinary Troika Summit in Maputo on 8-9 April to deliberate on measures to address the armed militancy in northern Mozambique.

Countering the armed militants known locally as al-Shabab is an urgent regional and international priority following their attacks on Palma since 24 March and the devastation caused in deaths, displaced, and destruction and damage to property. The government recaptured the town on 5 April but it is too soon to assess the total death count in Palma, likely to be in the dozens with thousands newly-displaced.

Since 2017, some 2,500 have been killed and nearly 700,000 internally displaced by this insurgency, but the Palma attack is a new morbid watershed.…  Seguir leyendo »

A newspaper vendor on a deserted street in Lagos, Nigeria during the country's first COVID-19 lockdown. Photo by Adekunle Ajayi/NurPhoto via Getty Images.

MundoÁfrica

The year 2020 will of course be remembered for the COVID-19 pandemic, but many African countries have handled the public health effects of the first wave well compared with neighbouring continents, with some 55,000 related deaths and two million recovered out of a population of just over one billion.

This can be credited to quick action and leadership by the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) and others, assisted by public support and a youthful population with about only three per cent aged over 65 and relatively few institutionalized homes for the elderly.

Climate, prior exposure to other coronavirus strains, and effective community health networks set up in response to contain previous epidemics such as Ebola also clearly played a role.…  Seguir leyendo »

Chinese president Xi Jinping walks past a guard of honour at the Union Buildings in Pretoria, during the start of an official tour to South Africa in 2015. Photo by KAREL PRINSLOO/AFP via Getty Images.

MundoÁfricaMundoAsia,

Africa is experiencing its first continent-wide recession in 25 years due to the impact of the COVID-19, but many southern African states were already in economic distress prior to the pandemic – with Angola, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe partly because of unsustainable debt burdens they owe to China.

The COVID-19 crisis propelled African debt – and repayment and forgiveness – to the top of the international agenda once again, although this time much of the debt is bilateral, non-concessionary, or commercial in origin.

In April, the World Bank’s Development Committee and G20 finance ministers endorsed the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) which includes 40 African Least Developed Countries (LDCs).…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian president Vladimir Putin with African leaders at the 2019 Russia-Africa Summit and Economic Forum in Sochi, Russia. Photo by SERGEI CHIRIKOV/POOL/AFP via Getty Images.

MundoÁfricaEuropaEuropaUnión EuropeaPolítica Exterior

Europe's preparation for the European Union–African Union Summit in 2021 needs to succesfully provide a coherent African policy on security, immigration and climate change that goes beyond trade and provides, at the very least, an opportunity for dialogue with the Russian Federation, which is also re-engaging in Africa.

The first Russia-Africa summit in Sochi in October 2019 was co-chaired by the Russian president Vladimir Putin and the Egyptian president and African Union chairman Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi. It also attracted 43 heads of state or government and more than 6,000 participants and media representatives from Russia and 104 foreign countries and territories.

Resulting from the Sochi summit is the Russia-Africa Partnership Forum, which is tasked to prepare for the second Russia-Africa summit in 2022.…  Seguir leyendo »

Press conference in Kati after the military arrested Malian president Ibrahim Boubacar Keita and he officially resigned. Photo by ANNIE RISEMBERG / AFP via Getty Images.

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The coup in Mali is not a putsch by disgruntled soldiers in a distant land. It is an extended European neighbourhood and matters to Britain. The UK already has three Chinook helicopters deployed in country and 250 British troops are scheduled to take up UN peacekeeping duties in December in what could be the ministry of defence’s most dangerous deployment since Afghanistan.

This coup was not unexpected as it followed months of mass protests against alleged corruption, a worsening economy, disputed legislative election results and deteriorating security in this West African country. Mali’s military is struggling to stop the insurgents, some of them now also affiliated with the ISIL (ISIS) armed group, despite UN, EU, French and regional military support.…  Seguir leyendo »