The prospects for a negotiated peace in Ukraine are bleak
Russia and Ukraine are engaged in intermittent negotiations to end the war. If the Russian military in Ukraine collapses as a result of supply and morale problems, or if Putin is removed from power somehow, the war could end quickly.
Otherwise, the fighting could drag on, in the form of a long and costly war of attrition that would likely grind Ukrainian cities into dust.
At least three hurdles stand in the way of a stable and lasting peace settlement. First, both sides would have to agree on the likely outcome of the war. Second, belligerents face the difficult task of constructing agreements they can trust in the long run.… Seguir leyendo »