Alexander Clarkson

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‘The Kremlin has long dismissed Brussels as a global player.’ the European Parliament building in Brussels. Photograph: Omar Havana/Getty Images

Twenty-seven years before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in what now seems a very distant past, the European Union considered sanctioning Russia.

In 1995, following Russia’s military intervention in Chechnya, EU leaders suspended the ratification of a planned partnership and cooperation agreement and threatened Moscow with even greater consequences if its war crimes, including the indiscriminate bombing of Chechen civilians, did not stop.

The Boris Yeltsin government dealt with the conflict in Chechnya by unleashing further brutal military force, but Europe eventually backed down and ratified the agreement anyway. In the years that followed, Russia’s leadership went on to dismantle democratic institutions, invade Georgia in 2008 and ignite a war in eastern Ukraine in 2014, the prologue to the full-scale invasion of February 2022.…  Seguir leyendo »

Ukrainian servicemen taking part in the armed conflict with Russia-backed separatists in the country's Donetsk region march in Kiev on November 15, 2018 prior to the handover ceremony of military heavy weapons and equipment. SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP via Getty Images

Many analysts in the United States and Europe are convinced that an invasion of Ukraine is now the most likely outcome of Russian troop movements near the border. Some have gone further in concluding that Russian President Vladimir Putin hopes to impose a Russian military occupation on all or part of Ukraine. They believe the Russian military will try to establish a new social order in Ukraine, replacing the government under President Volodymyr Zelensky with a puppet administration.

There is little doubt that the build-up of what are now around 80 battalion tactical groups, which include tanks, artillery, and around 130,000 troops, represents a profound threat to Ukraine.…  Seguir leyendo »