Half the world economy is one accident away from a deflation trap. The International Monetary Fund says the probability may now be as high as 20pc.
It is a remarkable state of affairs that the G2 monetary superpowers – the US and China – should both be tightening into such a 20pc risk, though no doubt they have concluded that asset bubbles are becoming an even bigger danger.
«We need to be extremely vigilant,» said the IMF’s Christine Lagarde in Davos. «The deflation risk is what would occur if there was a shock to those economies now at low inflation rates, way below target.… Seguir leyendo »
Be careful what you wish for. The euro’s founding fathers dreamt of a superpower currency to match the dollar, freeing Europe from US monetary hegemony. Charles de Gaulle grumbled that America enjoyed an “exorbitant privilege” as holder of the world’s reserve currency, able to get away with murder. Now they have one themselves, only to discover that it is a curse.
China’s central bank has been buying fistfuls of euros as it accumulates a world record $3.7 trillion in foreign reserves, and its motives are not entirely friendly. So have the central banks of Russia, Brazil and the Middle Eastern oil sheikhdoms, all aiming to cut reliance on the US dollar, part of a $9 trillion surge in reserves leaking, with tidal force, into the euro.… Seguir leyendo »