Coup attempts often come as a big surprise — and bring big changes. Purges and imprisonments since Turkey’s July 2016 failed coup, for instance, have some observers worried about the state of democracy in Turkey, while others worry about Turkish rapprochement with Russia.
Anticipating exactly when a coup will occur is generally difficult, but a number of researchers work on forecasting where coup attempts are likely to occur. Jay Ulfelder created annual projections of coups d’état for 2012 to 2015, but his blog has been on hiatus since then.
Our research has developed tools to forecast irregular leadership changes, which include coups.… Seguir leyendo »