Andreas Murr

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New British election forecast

In April, when Prime Minister Theresa May announced that Britain would hold a snap election on June 8, it looked like her Conservative Party would claim a landslide victory. However, recent voter intention polls suggest that the race is tightening — and that the Conservatives could lose seats.

Our forecasting model, based on voter expectations of who will win, predicts that the Conservative Party actually will increase its majority, winning about 361 of the 650 seats in Parliament.

British pollsters have two big misses. They were off target on the 2015 parliamentary elections and the 2016 Brexit referendum. This demonstrates the challenges of voter intention polls: identifying who will turn out to vote, how “undecided voters” will vote and what constitutes a representative survey sample.…  Seguir leyendo »