Bilal Y. Saab

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A damaged building in the southern Lebanese village of Meiss El-Jabal on November 25, 2024 (Photo by JALAA MAREY/AFP via Getty Images)

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Now that the dust has settled, following the ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel, it is crucial to ask whether this deal will last. Let’s face it, we’ve been here before.

In 2006, Hezbollah and Israel fought viciously for more than a month for reasons not dissimilar to today’s context. By conducting a cross-border raid against Israeli troops, Hezbollah sought to alleviate some pressure on Hamas, which was battling with Israel in Gaza.

The operation backfired, triggering a devastating conflict that led to the killing of roughly 1,100 Lebanese and 160 Israelis, and to massive displacement and damage to infrastructure in southern Lebanon.…  Seguir leyendo »

Iranians lay flowers beneath a billboard bearing a portrait of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli air strike on Beirut's southern suburbs on 27 September 2024. Photo by HOSSEIN BERIS/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images.

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No matter how deep Hezbollah’s bench is, the killing of its top leader Hassan Nasrallah following an Israeli airstrike against the southern suburbs of Beirut is a devastating blow to the organization – undoubtedly the worst in its history.

Hezbollah has navigated moments of peril since its inception in 1982. It fought Israel, one of the world’s mightiest armies, for more than 18 years to liberate southern Lebanon, finally achieved in 2000.

In 2005, Hezbollah lost Syria’s direct patronage when the latter was forced to withdraw its troops from Lebanon following a Lebanese popular uprising and US-led international pressure. The group had to adjust internally and instead of pushing for Lebanese unity, it elected to replace Syrian rule of Lebanon with its own – never easy nor smart given Lebanon’s sectarian makeup and system of checks and balances, which have frustrated the attempts of any single group seeking to control politics in Beirut.…  Seguir leyendo »

Officers use construction equipment to remove debris from heavily damaged buildings following an Israeli air strike on the Dahieh district of southern Beirut in Lebanon on 21 September 2024. (Photo by Houssam Shbaro/Anadolu via Getty Images).

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The intensification of violence between Israel and Hezbollah is at its root a contest of wills between Israel and Iran. Tehran wants to impose a new strategic reality on Israel by establishing military linkage and potential interdependence between the battlefields of Gaza, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Israel is countering Iran’s plan through brute force. The result has been strategic failure on both sides, along with tens of thousands of innocent people killed and immense human displacement and physical destruction.

Although armed groups loyal to Tehran have attacked Israel from Iraq and Yemen, the two main areas of confrontation are Gaza and Lebanon, where Israel is fighting Hamas and Hezbollah respectively.…  Seguir leyendo »

A man walks past a building damaged by the Israeli airstrike of July 31, 2024 in Beirut, Lebanon. (Photo by Fadel Itani/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

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Events in the Middle East during July point to a striking paradox: Israel and the Iran-led ‘axis of resistance’ are inching closer to a catastrophic regional war – yet the war remains unlikely, because neither side wants it. Is that mutual apprehension enough to prevent the worst from happening?

Even the most seasoned observer of the region can’t answer that question with confidence. But one thing everyone can agree on is that Israel’s alleged killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, and its assassination of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Lebanon do nothing to lower the temperature.

It will seriously disrupt and delay negotiations between Israel and Hamas over a ceasefire, and therefore the release of Israeli hostages.…  Seguir leyendo »

Smoke billows from a site targeted by the Israeli military in the southern Lebanese border village of Kafr Kila on July 29. Rabih Daher / AFP

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The fatal attack against Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, which Israel accused Hezbollah of perpetrating but the Shiite militant group denied, could be the act that disrupts the delicate balance of deterrence between these two old enemies.

Hezbollah and Israel have been exchanging fire since the former decided to open a front against the latter on Oct. 8, to support Hamas a day after it attacked Israel. The assumption, and the risk, all along has been that at any moment either Hezbollah or Israel was going to miscalculate and trigger a large-scale war. Does the strike in Majdal Shams, which killed 12 children and teenagers belonging to the Druze sect, represent that miscalculation?…  Seguir leyendo »

Israeli airstrikes on northern Gaza seen from the Kfar Aza region of Israel on May 12, 2024. (Photo by Mostafa Alkharouf/Anadolu via Getty Images)

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Within six months, US President Joe Biden went from categorically refusing to condition aid to Israel to threatening to halt certain weapons deliveries should Israel decide to invade Rafah in southern Gaza without a civilian protection plan in place. Just before his public ultimatum, Biden issued an order to pause a shipment of large bombs to Israel to ‘deliver a message’ to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

This change in attitude, while no doubt politically significant, is of no practical consequence to Israel’s warfighting capacity in Gaza. Its significantly weaker foe, Hamas, has lost most of its combat power due to Israeli strikes.…  Seguir leyendo »

Iranian pro-government supporters hold a giant Palestine flag at Palestine Square in Tehran, on April 14, 2024, in a celebration of the early morning Iran's IRGC attack on Israel. (Photo by HOSSEIN BERIS/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

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Iran’s direct drone and missile attack on Israel that lasted several hours on Saturday evening has changed the long-established terms of engagement between the two adversarial states. It has also taken the Middle East closer to a wider conflict that if uncontained will have serious and destabilizing ripple effects across the region.

Iranian-Israeli tensions have long simmered in the shadows of the broader Middle East. Iran has, since the 1979 revolution, taken an anti-Israeli posture and as part of its deterrence strategy has cultivated and financed support for the ‘axis of resistance’ network in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Palestine, surrounding Israel’s borders.…  Seguir leyendo »

Iranians attend the funeral procession for seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a strike in Syria, which Iran blamed on Israel, in Tehran on 5 April 2024. (Photo by HOSSEIN BERIS/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images).

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The Middle East is waiting with bated breath to see how Iran will avenge Israel’s suspected killing of seven Iranian military officers in a strike on an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus on 1 April. Tehran has made it clear that it will respond. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has publicly stated that Israel ‘must be punished’, and the United States has communicated to Israel that Iranian retaliation is imminent.

Although Israel and Iran have been involved in a shadow war for several years, Israel’s strike in Damascus was particularly bold and painful. In one swoop, Israel wiped out Iran’s military leadership in Syria as well as a vital link with Hezbollah –General Mohammad Reza Zahedi – Iran’s most important and powerful proxy in the region.…  Seguir leyendo »

Supporters of the Houthis rallied in Yemen on Friday. Khaled Abdullah/Reuters

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By striking Houthi rebel targets in Yemen with Britain on Thursday, Washington sent a searing message to both the Houthis and its Iranian backers that the United States has ended its longstanding defense-only posture in the Red Sea and is determined to stop the group’s attacks against commercial ships in regional waters.

It’s unclear whether that strategy will work, given the intransigence of the Houthis and the fact that they stand to benefit from a fight with the United States. Such a clash boosts their credentials with U.S. foes in the region and distracts from their atrocious governance of northwestern Yemen and the country’s capital.…  Seguir leyendo »

The USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Eastern Mediterranean on November 03, 2023. (Photo by US Navy Janae Chambers/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images)

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Attacks in recent weeks by Yemen’s Houthis on ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb strait have increased calls in Washington for a forceful US military response directed at Iranian proxies – and at Iran itself.

Officials in the Department of Defense as well as senior officers in the US military have expressed concern about what they view as a relatively timid US response to the Houthi attacks.

This follows Sen. Tom Cotton’s proposal for ‘ massive retaliation’ against Iranians operating in Iraq and Syria, and presidential candidate Tim Scott advocating ‘ attacking Iran, not just warehouses in Syria’ during Republican debates.…  Seguir leyendo »

Israeli soldiers move to a position during a drill in the annexed Golan Heights on November 9, 2023, amid increasing cross-border tensions.(Photo by JALAA MAREY/AFP via Getty Images)

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He leads an army of more than 100,000 dedicated and battle-hardened fighters equipped with thousands of missiles, rockets, and armed drones that can hit targets deep inside Israel with pinpoint accuracy. He inspires and commands the loyalty of Iran-backed militias across the Arab world.

So when Hassan Nasrallah, the head of the Lebanese Hezbollah and the most powerful non-state actor in the world, says that he doesn’t wish to broaden the war in Gaza to help his Palestinian ally Hamas, the region should breathe a sigh of relief – because his words matter.

But Nasrallah’s intentions alone are hardly sufficient to prevent regional escalation.…  Seguir leyendo »

An Israeli soldier directs a Merkava battle tank as it deploys with other tanks along the border with the Gaza Strip in southern Israel on October 13, 2023. (Photo by ARIS MESSINIS/AFP via Getty Images)

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There is political logic behind the Israeli government’s declaration that it will ‘wipe Hamas off the Earth’.

The Israeli public want to see Hamas destroyed once and for all, given the unprecedented mass murder it just committed.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his colleagues, already under intense pressure for allowing the attack to take place (and for putting Israel in a vulnerable position by pursuing anti-democratic policies) were compelled to make big promises. Their maximalist goals reflect the stakes in their fight for political survival.

Israeli security rationale is understandable, too: eliminating your enemy, as opposed to containing them, is the surest way to prevent them from hurting you again.…  Seguir leyendo »